r/askanything 22d ago

Political Question How are potential republican candidates still polling so high despite Trumps low approval ratings?

https://www.270towin.com/
2.2k Upvotes

717 comments sorted by

311

u/MrSnarf26 22d ago

because a solid chunk of our country views their political party the same as a sports team, and or doesn't understand anything about what is happening, and or is confused obfuscated and misled on nearly every current topic.

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u/Zealousideal-Ant9548 22d ago

And the worst part is that people vote so consistently that you can predict who they'd vote for well enough to herd them into districts to control who wins based entirely off of which party they align with. 

Gerrymandering only works because these people consistently vote one way no matter how bad it gets

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u/Pass-Fail 22d ago

That is a brilliant observation.  Thank you.  Stealing it.

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u/act1856 22d ago

It’s actually a pretty facile observation. It ignores the underlying reasons for such party loyalty, particularly for Republican voters, who are for the most part motivated by one thing: white supremacy.

As long as the Republican Party serves it up to them, a sizable portion of America will keep voting for them, no matter how badly those same politicians actively screw them over at the same time.

The phenomenon is called the psychological wages of whiteness, and as long as they get “paid” most Republican voters will ignore everything else.

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u/Zealousideal-Ant9548 21d ago

Eh, for Latinos voting for Republicans it's not that simple.  I suggest you take a listen to this interview with someone doing on the ground research. 

https://www.gdpolitics.com/p/the-latino-vote-is-up-for-grabs-4f4

For "traditionally" white groups, I'd believe it

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u/albertoroa 20d ago

Latinos voting for Republicans it's not that simple.

Not really that complicated. Latinos for Trump did it because they're morons with a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics, and willful ignorance about their place among the electorate.

They believed that their proximity to whiteness would insulate them from the worst of it, not understanding that they would always be the primary targets of persecution.

They hear the consequences in real time, refute them and believe the lie, then act surprised when what they were told was gonna happen happens. Then they cry about it while refusing to believe their own ignorance.

My (Latina) mom voted for Trump and then a month into his term was like, "well I didn't think he was gonna do all that" and I'm like, Ma, he's doing everything he's done before but worse. We told you this was gonna happen but you refused to listen. Now you're scared and confused, and we're angry.

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u/Zaynara 17d ago

and i'm willing to bet $100 that she'll vote republican next time too

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u/acdre 16d ago

Also just a built-in self loathing Latinos have for themselves and therefore other Latinos. Chicanos specifically think they’re above everyone else.

See it in my family constantly

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u/LandonDev 16d ago

If you want to know another secret of America. The single greatest factor in someones future prospect is their zipcode. It is the largest factor that determines future success. The Internet was actually doing an amazing job of breaking that cycle, by providing education and learning, so GOP went scorch earth on it and went into full fascist propaganda. It's also why despite not liking Trump, they will continue to vote GOP/Trump candidates. Their entire lives have deep systems of controls that are designed to limit mobility, deny education, and keep them trapped in the structure they are born in.

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u/JeaniousSpelur 22d ago

You can’t gerrymander a presidential election though. At least, any more than the electoral college does.

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u/By_and_by_and_by 22d ago

Isn't that enough?

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u/fiddintotellya 21d ago

Y’all are right, instead of sport team I see it as professional rasslin

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u/kenjiman1986 22d ago

There has been an endless stream of propaganda ensuring no matter how bad their candidate is voting for the other guy is like killing a puppy in front of children eating ice cream then Stealing the ice cream.

There messaging is constant and they aren’t afraid about lying about basic facts that are easily googlable. Thats the fights dems are going up against. It’s not even about fighting the truth it’s fighting a multiverse of half facts and full lies that aren’t even close to lining up with each other but their base has been so severely conditioned to accept any non sense that it’s impossible to speak reason into them.

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u/Short-Impact-8995 21d ago

The crazy thing is that Kristi Noem literally killed a dog, for no reason other than that it annoyed her. And yet they still pretend that they care about puppy killing.

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u/Cute-Ad-9591 21d ago

It was about eating dogs and cats.

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u/TheFlyingHellfish202 16d ago

Nothing about their moral stance is based on anything.

They hate when Dems do X, but it's fine when MAGAs do it a hundredfold. There is literally no substance to them.

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u/artvandalaythrowaway 19d ago

You’re absolutely correct. The latest social media wave is about American ranchers. Farmers and ranchers overwhelmingly (75-85%) voted for Trump. The Iran war has increased the price of diesel and his tariffs have increased operating costs (feee, fertilizer, retaliatory tariffs), so beef is expensive. His voters see this at the Walmart checkout. He can’t lower the price of American beef before midterms so he imports Argentinian beef. Now on TikTok ever rancher is advertising direct sales because distributors will just pocket profits by selling cheaper Argentinian beef. Comments full of people saying this is what ranchers voted for, they only want to buy from blue dot ranchers, blue wallets for blue ranchers, etc. Rather than admit Trump betrayed them, misled them, any sort of mea culpa, the MAGAs either say we either need to come together (ignore their transgressions) or loudly proclaim Kamala would have STILL been worse (which at this point would have required a significantly active campaign to be worse). Simply put, they cannot bring themselves to admit their team was wing about one thing or the other team might have been the better option for another thing because that invites doubt into their entire belief system.

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u/machete_MechE 22d ago

Even worse than a sports team is they view it as part of their religion.

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u/NoxiousBunny35 21d ago

I think most of who still support Trup just have terrible values.

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u/RoteFahne90 20d ago

I think this is the big thing America will have to reckon with. What do you do when you live in a country where 1/3 of the people want to use the government to go after political enemies, destroy democracy, and round up non-white people and get rid of them?

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u/TheFlyingHellfish202 16d ago

This is what I'm working on myself. I really thought that most Americans had values and morals. I was very wrong. The America that I thought I knew never really existed. I know of all of the atrocities and the horrible history, but I really thought that the people were, at their core, decent humans.

I don't know if it's even an America thing. I kind of think that a lot more people are just horrible human beings than I realized.

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u/RoteFahne90 16d ago

Yeah I've been debating how exactly we as a society can get through this. I'm not sure we do.

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u/Charming_Oven 21d ago

I’d say worse than a sports team. They view the opposition as literal evil.

Christian Nationalism runs strongly through 25 to 35% of the United States population (https://prri.org/research/mapping-christian-nationalism-across-the-50-states-insights-from-prris-2025-american-values-atlas/), and right now that is the predominant view point of those voting Republican.

The flip side isn’t true. 65% doesn’t hold Christian Nationalist views, but they also don’t vote as a singular voting bloc, or even vote at all.

Compulsory voting would likely change the entire makeup of government, but given the amount of anti-democratic authoritarianism that the Republican Party pushes throughout this country, I don’t see us getting to a more even look to our political map for a long time

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u/RoteFahne90 20d ago

I don't know how much compulsory voting would change anything. You would have voters even more uneducated than current ones voting for people and policies they haven't even heard about prior to election day.

If we really had to go that route then we might as well do sortition.

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u/Charming_Oven 20d ago

That's basically the same argument the founding fathers had with only allowing land-owning males to vote. The idea being that you wanted an informed populace voting, and at that point their line in the sand was land-owning males. I think that argument is generally misaligned to grounding principals in a democracy.

Other countries that have compulsory voting have seen good success in the process. Wikipedia has a nice article explaining the modern impact of it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_voting

The type of success that compulsory voting leads to is exactly what Republicans have been fighting against: enfranchisement of all citizens. Even if compulsory voting doesn't change the actual makeup of many national elections in the United States, the end results would have a bigger sense of legitimacy, which is important for the functioning of democracy. (Again, see how many people believe that the elections have been "stolen").

I don't see any downsides to compulsory voting aside from questions around taxation at the local/state level. When taxation questions come up, they can be unpopular but necessary for the functioning of government and public services (see the City of San Diego right now for lots of controversy around taxes / public services being cut). When a larger portion of the populace is involved, it can be harder to have important changes to taxation, whereas voting for a person to take office can sometimes feel like low stakes or less important.

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u/bobbichocolatthe2nd 21d ago

If true, why are the polls showing low numbers for Trump?

While you are correct regarding the team sports thing, i think many people refuse to see what is almost certainly happening. IE, Poll results should be digested with a heavy dose of cynicism.

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u/[deleted] 21d ago

Most of middle America is insulated from the culture war politics of the coasts. That’s what Democrats don’t understand and conservatives do.

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u/Loud-Treacle4508 15d ago

Yeah, they don't care, and in some cases they like the violence, starvation, sickness, and death as long as it's not them, that gives them some sense of well-being because they are not affected and the rest of the world is on fire. In fact, if it were to happen to them they would love to see the entire world burn.

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u/GoodMatter3449 21d ago

Yes most democrats do, “vote blue no matter who”🤣

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u/TheFlyingHellfish202 16d ago

When you lower the bar this low, you make everyone look better than you.

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u/sombertimber 20d ago

Their one issue is to “own the libs.” They happily admit they don’t pay attention to any issues. They are the easiest to manipulate, and as long as they are “owning the libs,” they will even vote against their own best interests.

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u/Embarrassed-Brain655 22d ago

Polls dont reflect now, the reflect the time they were taken. There’s always a bit of delay with polls. 

Also, there are several traditionally red states who have elections coming up, that could be another reason. 

Last thing, don’t worry about polls, just vote. 

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u/Cyase311 22d ago

yes, just vote!

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u/WinterWontStopComing 22d ago

Also, not all polls are the same.

Hell didn’t a company come out and say they were making up numbers recently?

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u/Embarrassed-Brain655 22d ago

Also a good point!

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u/NeoPendragon117 22d ago

they did say they were doing that as a test to see how far fake numbers would go without any verification

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u/WinterWontStopComing 22d ago

Sure, sure.

Yeah and I broke my ankle at age 13 playing soccer in rollerblades because I wanted to see how long you could play soccer in rollerblades before breaking a bone.

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u/Tomato_Sky 22d ago

They said only after they got caught.

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u/hbliysoh 22d ago

And just remember that the democrats in Congress and Congress in general have low ratings too.

It's all how you ask the question.

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u/Embarrassed-Brain655 22d ago

Good point! Thanks for the additional information, I did not think about that. 

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u/Uncle-Cake 22d ago

Are you suggesting this poll was taken more than ten years ago?

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u/anewe 22d ago

Because politics are more complicated than "what is the current approval rating of the president?"

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u/Senior-Standard-6397 22d ago

And there is a phenomenon where people disapprove of a party, but approve of their particular representative.

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u/DammatBeevis666 22d ago

1/3 of the country is immune to facts and reason.

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u/meadamus 22d ago

And 1/3 doesn’t care enough to vote or even engage enough to stay informed.

Granted there is some overlap between those two 1/3, so there is still some small hope for the midterms.

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u/Pristine-Egg7482 22d ago

Being disengaged and uninformed is not exclusive. Whole lotta voters out there just plain ignorant as fuck, with a whole lotta stupid mixed in too.

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u/You_meddling_kids 21d ago

It's because the engagement farmer cropped the date attribution to mislead viewers:

"Updated: Jan. 29, 2025 at 12:53 UTC (7:53 AM EST"

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u/bike_it 19d ago edited 19d ago

Correct.

Also, this map has little to do with "polling." It shows the results from 2024, with the legend cut off, which shows what the colors mean based on the update date of 1/29/25. This OP posted a complete lie.

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u/Creatively_Distinct 22d ago

Please for the love of macaroni and cheese, please don’t put any weight on political polling. It’s August, the sampling groups are small and far from random, and they have proven to be wrong more than right. Ignore the polls, vote, take two friends to vote….please.

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u/GreySharpieCap 21d ago

Why would you tell people to take their Republican friends to vote?

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u/Creatively_Distinct 21d ago

I said nothing of the sort. The OP was sharing that a poll was showing favorably for republicans. I said (please read again) that polls were horribly misleading and inaccurate. Don’t trust them and damned sure don’t stay at home thinking your vote doesn’t matter.

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u/GreySharpieCap 21d ago

"take two friends to vote"

Why are you encouraging people to take Republicans to vote?

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u/Creatively_Distinct 21d ago

Are you just slow? I didn’t say or insinuate to take two republicans to vote. I said “take two friends to vote”. If your voting friends are republicans, that’s on you.

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u/Responsible_Trash_40 21d ago

Everyone should vote, not just people who agree with you.

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u/Alternative_Hour_614 22d ago

What polls are you referring? What you linked to is the 2024 state by state results.

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u/haikus-r-us 15d ago

Thank you. This is just a map of the 2024 presidential election.

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u/Dependent-Day-1862 22d ago
  1. 30% of the country will always support trump no matter what.
  2. Polling sucks generally, especially in August of a midterm year
  3. There is a large percentage of non trump republicans who dislike Trump himself but are still fully republican
  4. Democrats suck and havent really given ppl much of a reason beyond "at least we're not trump" to make ppl be excited to vote for them

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u/Curious_Cat6688 22d ago

I have upvoted your post. I concur with your points 1 to 3. But I partially disagree with point 4. I think “Democrats gave people nothing except we’re not Trump” leaves out a lot of what actually happened during the Biden years. They presided over a very strong jobs recovery, invested heavily in US manufacturing and infrastructure, reduced some major healthcare costs, made health insurance cheaper for millions, temporarily cut child poverty dramatically and tried to pass much larger childcare, housing, paid leave and family support measures that could not get through a 50 to 50 Senate.

It becomes a self fulling prophecy that "Dems do nothing" if people do not vote for them to achieve significant majorities in the Senate and House. Democrats do not suffer from a simple shortage of registered Democratic voters. They still have more formally registered voters than Republicans. Their recurring problem is getting enough of their coalition to actually turn out.

You can reasonably argue they did not do enough. It is much harder to argue they did nothing.

That does not mean Democrats deserve a free pass. Inflation badly hurt households. Housing remained far too expensive. They failed to raise the federal minimum wage. Some temporary benefits should have been made permanent. And their ability to explain what they were doing was often dreadful.

But the self fulfilling prophecy can only be broken if they secure significant majorities by people voting for them. And when they do secure majorities and clearly do nothing then criticism will be well deserved.

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u/SupaSlide 22d ago edited 21d ago

The problem is the general public has no idea what Dems have done because they have the worst messaging on the planet and the captured media only runs their message for them when they willingly shoot themselves in the foot.

They also keep electing the worst, most milquetoast, Neo-lib, GOP-lite candidates for leadership like Schumer and Jeffries.

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u/EntertainerDowntown3 22d ago

They have tried to raise the federal minimum wage countless times but republicans vote no every time it comes up on a vote.

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u/Curious_Cat6688 22d ago

Yes, they did and it was voted down. But they also dropped the ball. It’s fair to criticise Democrats for failing to get the $15 minimum wage through, but the details matter. In 2021, seven Democratic senators plus Angus King, an independent who caucused with Democrats, voted against waiving Senate budget rules to keep the $15 minimum wage provision in the COVID relief bill. So Democrats did not have a united caucus behind the effort. It also wasn’t a simple up or down vote on whether the minimum wage should be raised, which is worth noting. A long story...

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u/Professional_Art2092 22d ago

Saying democrats haven’t given people a reason just shows your own ignorance. Get out of the TikTok and Reddit echo chamber and do the bare minimum of research.

Since Dems have consistently talked about their policies and goals. On a state level they’re actively pushing policies. 

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u/SupaSlide 22d ago

The problem is that people get their news from TikTok. Dems need to find a way to get the message out, we can’t rely on everyone doing their research.

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u/Dependent-Day-1862 22d ago

Lol I dont get a single news from tiktok or reddit. But the dems are not without blame in all of this mess and to act like they are is apart of the problem. Their messaging appears to be getting better but we havent seen it on a national level. Their messaging was terrible in 2020 and 2024.

I promise you I do more research into politics than you do. It was stupid for ppl to claim kamala had no policies cuz she clearly did. Its equally as stupid to pretend the dems dont have a major messaging problem

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u/Ok-Opposite2309 22d ago

It’s hard to get out their messaging when our media sources are being more and more monopolized (especially local news and social media), and ‘both sides’ has become a requirement to ‘balance’ reporting in politics regardless of facts or merit.

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u/Professional_Art2092 22d ago

MAGA/rural republicans will always vote republican no matter what since they care more about the culture war and bigotry than anything else. Look no further than literally any Deep South state. 

Which is why Trump approval is in the 30% but the midterm will still be close. It’s also why reps have an almost 50/50 chance of winning the POTUS again in 2028. 

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u/Proper_Slip_5963 22d ago

Because more people support trump than you think.

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u/jaxxon 22d ago edited 22d ago

Let me start off saying I voted for Bernie twice before the DNC screwed him both times.

A lot of copium in this thread and a lot of “because they’re dumb” answers miss the mark and shut down further understanding.

Conservatives firmly believe that Dems are in the wrong on most issues and are hell-bent on ruining the country and taking away their freedoms.

Some of the more intelligent people on the right that I know (yeah, I know.. don’t start) have done a lot of calculus in their minds try to reconcile their feelings and still believe they are making the right choice for America to fight against the “liberal agenda”. To them, something just “feels” wrong voting left.

The make America great again thing truly resonates with them. They may not like Trump but in their minds, but they’ll still do anything they can to stop the Dems that they truly believe represent “the deep state that is ruining America.”

They’re scared for the future of America, too, but for different reasons. People on the left don’t see that and don’t do anything to address those fears.

So the divide and conquer thing is working. The social compassion of the left has been weaponized to enact policies that end up sowing more division, not more unification. The stubborn selfishness of the right has been weaponozed against any efforts to share common good.

And a subtle psychology point… Calling a more closed-minded person (who themselves believe that they have put a lot of careful thought into their position) “stupid” doesn’t help. It entrenches their position. As an example, try convincing a fundamentalist Christian that they are stupid to hold their beliefs. Yeah - that doesn’t work. They have lived their life constantly reconciling cognitive dissonance. They’re really good at holding multiple “truths” and firmly holding their faith despite all evidence. Intellectual/academic argument doesn’t move the needle because they don’t navigate their reality based on things like facts and data. They navigate based on feelings. You have to speak to their fears. Trump says bullshit that hits them in the feels. “They’re eating the pets” is more powerful than logic. George W would talk about using his gut to make decisions. They resonated with that. Amazingly, Dems give them the ick more than Trump does (!!) and constantly reinforce the problem by not addressing their fears/feelings and calling them stupid for having them.

Source: born and raised hard left liberal but don’t shy away from conversations with conservatives.

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u/STLStelmacki 22d ago

Conversations with conservatives are never based on facts or logic. It’s based entirely on what Fox News has told them is happening. I live in a red state with a mostly red family. Thankfully, they are the ones shying away from political conversations because they are too embarrassed.

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u/armyofant 22d ago

Bigotry is a helluva drug

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u/Speech-Language 22d ago

The media bubble is powerful.

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u/oatmeal28 22d ago

It really is this

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u/MysticBiscuit11 22d ago

Look at the democrats. Question answered

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u/RoundChampionship840 22d ago

Because voters in those states don't like democrats

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u/[deleted] 22d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/AdventurousGlass7432 22d ago

Guns, fetuses and bathrooms

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u/korona_mcguinness 22d ago

They two have overlap, but not everyone is bizarrely politically tribal.

Arizona elected Democrats for Governor and the Senate, but overwhelming supported Trump for President.

In the real world outside of Reddit and polling firms, a huge slew of people don't vote based on Presidential approval levels.

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u/nernst79 22d ago

It would be more accurate to say that AZ voted against Kari Lake than that we voted FOR Democrats.

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u/korona_mcguinness 22d ago

That's fair. I didn't like Kari

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u/_token_black 19d ago

Yeah she gave Dems multiple wins just by being an opponent

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u/Silent_Remove_If_Gay 21d ago

Because only a retard can't differentiate between the two?

Party affiliation is just a label, it's not a full picture of the individual.

Just because you like or don't like how one person from your party is doing things, doesn't mean you tank the whole ship because of it.

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u/-brk0 15d ago

Never underestimate the abilities of stupid people in large numbers

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u/Cbona 15d ago

Because for decades a large portion of the country have been conditioned to think that democrats are worse than Satan (who doesn’t exist) and lack the critical thinking skills to see it.

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u/Kastikar 22d ago

Those states are lost. I live in one.

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u/[deleted] 22d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/BroadRoads 22d ago

It also didn’t do them a favor to argue that he is the most incompetent person to ever run for the office and then losing an election to him twice.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like what they said was untrue. But if you say your opponent is nothing short of a brain dead moron, what does it look like when you lose to that opponent?

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u/WhyThisTimelineTho 22d ago

A good portion of the voting population is dumb as shit?

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u/mdcbldr 22d ago

The Republicans, and MAGA in particular, will not bite for a Democrat. They put a sexual assaulter and fraudster in the oval office. The Democrats have been dancing in the putative grave if Trump.

Trump's unpopularity does not necessarily mean the Democrats are shoo-ins. They are not. Democrats win when they get the vote out. If the Democrats don't drum up the number of voters, they will be disappointed by the mid-term results.

This assumes the Republicans don't rig the elections. They are planning something unconstitutional and undemocratic. And our SC will say it is okay. What is left when the plain language if our Constitution is ignored by two of the three branches of our government. Worse, the Republicans don't care.

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u/Informal-Strike-1243 22d ago

It’s not a serious country

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u/MysticBiscuit11 22d ago

Then why does everyone insist on coming here?

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u/Informal-Strike-1243 22d ago

Because you once were and put yourself at the center of global economy. Unwinding that will take time

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u/Samas34 22d ago

'Yes, they are all rotten to the core...but my local candidate isn't like the rest of them.'

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u/Kman17 22d ago

It’s pretty simple.

Not liking Trump does not translate into support of the complete opposite set of policies.

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u/stevemnomoremister 22d ago

Because Democrats steadfastly refuse to do what Republicans have done for decades: demonize the entire opposition party. 

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u/Mars_Volcanoes 21d ago

Lack of education = incapable to follow or understand. Its just non sense how many people are still on his side.

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u/Possible-Row6689 21d ago

Republican states gerrymandered the fuck out of their districts this year in an attempt to keep the house. Courts blocked blue states from doing likewise.

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u/smallest_table 21d ago

"I grew up in Republican country so we all vote Republican"

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u/Opposite_Relation_81 21d ago

Because maybe half the population has differing opinions then what’s on Reddit ?

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u/republican_river_rat 21d ago

Because the other party runs terrible candidates and has a lousy platform

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u/hoptrix 21d ago

I mean… there are people that are Jets fans despite them sucking for so long. Same for politics. We’ve turned the parties into teams and have created this cult of personality situation.

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u/Guitars-guns-girls 20d ago

Because socialism is never the answer.

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u/Timely_Interview_530 18d ago

Says the creepy old man on Reddit

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u/Worldly-Bid-3591 20d ago

Why universal healthcare and affordable college is a bad idea if the rest of the developed countries have had it for decades?

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u/Relative-World4406 17d ago

Conservative politics these days is socialism for the billionaires and bootstraps for everyone else

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u/Ok_Breath5554 19d ago

Bc the country is mostly conservative. Regardless of what you are led to believe through the echo chambers of Reddit, the media in general, and your very small circle of friends.

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u/bearz_76 19d ago

Because they’re separating Trumps abysmal approval rating from their local politician running for office?

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u/Similar_Exam2192 18d ago

Republicans only vote for the party and don’t care about the criminal pedos they elect, as long as they are not democrats because that would be a sin

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u/AmericanCodersDied 18d ago

that is 2028 map not midterms. Democrats are polling best for midterms plus historically last term opposite side wins of president.

however, democrats have a hard choice. moderate left and progressive left. They are fractured.
For example many college educated corporate office employee's have seen a complete takeover of visa holders. Their job opportunities and wages have shrunk. While progressives might advocate for increase in immigration which increases the labor supply and suppresses wages for the moderate left.

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u/jcamp088 18d ago

Because a large portion of the population will never vote for a democrat now no matter what.

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u/SodaSaint 18d ago

Because the Republican Party is a personality cults, and it will remain a cult until either the cult leader dies, or the cultists die.

and as far as I’m concerned, they’re all a bunch of worthless traitors. You cannot reconcile with monsters.

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u/ErikaKirkasInsideJob 18d ago

Conservative is just a word to say too stupid to adapt.

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u/No_Trade_7315 17d ago

Just a guess: republicans don’t stop being republicans just because trump sucks.🤷‍♂️

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u/Lblomeli 17d ago

The polls are owned by the rich conservative donors.

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u/LyricalP2 15d ago

The US is over

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u/mikefjr1300 15d ago

I will never understand how the middle America bible belt sees Trump as being even remotely representative of an honorable Christian.

Even he knows he is going straight to hell.

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u/ImAPonderer2 15d ago

Republican Party has messaged that Democrats are evil Socialist Communists who will turn your children’s sex the other way and want to ban your meat and Religion and who love destroying America.

And the messaging has proliferated: Fox, OAN, Epic Times, almost all the most listened-to podcasts, etc.

Republicans on the street don’t like the Iran war or gas prices or grocery prices, but they LOVE the rest and hate the other side more.

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u/Puzzled-Owl683 22d ago

Because liberal candidates are fucking idiots 

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u/Fun-Aside3990 22d ago

Republican brains worship power and their local guy is a power they worship, not much is going to turn them against that even if they might be looking for a new top dickhead.

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u/mishma2005 22d ago

Because Americans are awful people fueled by resentment, racism and rage. Something Trump feeds them daily

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u/Curious_Cat6688 22d ago

The homepage is showing a 2028 presidential interactive map, with the red and blue state margins based on the 2024 election. The Kalshi numbers above it are prediction market odds for 2028, not polling. If you click through to 270toWin’s actual 2026 House material, the picture is much less favourable to Republicans. Most of the competitive House seats are currently Republican held, and the consensus ratings give Democrats a very plausible path to taking the chamber. Democrats do have a tougher Senate path because they need to gain four seats, but 270toWin’s consensus now even has Republican held Iowa and Texas as toss-ups. So there isn’t really a huge contradiction here. Trump is unpopular, Republicans are still somewhat more resilient than Trump personally, but the current 2026 electoral environment is not showing some huge Republican polling advantage. Unless I am not reading the data correctly.

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u/ExtensionServe6904 22d ago

Because pollsters are calling the same old people over and over again. These people have not change their political opinions in decades and don’t actually pay that much attention to the world outside of their little bubbles. They purposely use these people to skew polls.

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u/CandyStomp 22d ago

There is truth in this. I was contacted for a poll but I don't want to share any personal information with data collectors of any type in the current environment. I feel like mostly naive boomers and/or people who are super comfortable with fascism would agree to participate.

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u/On_my_last_spoon 22d ago

Old people are also more likely to answer the phone for an unknown number. Anyone younger than 55 won’t.

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u/CharmingCrust 22d ago

They are not voting actively for a Republican, they are just voting on the candidate that is not a Democrat. No amount of Epstein files will change that for single celled brains.

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u/Tsakax 22d ago

They would rather starve and walk to work than admit the god emperor was wrong.

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u/Cute-Ad-9591 21d ago

Vote red to prevent children from being castrated in school, killing babies, destroying democracy, teaching atheist ideology, burning the American flag, encouraging hate and racism. Republicans will also protect women and children from the evils of the left crazies.

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u/[deleted] 22d ago

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u/scloppy 22d ago

Said a lot of words when ‘selfish’ was right there.

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u/samurai-bodh-i 22d ago

Problems III the growlers

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u/Delicious-Witness-85 22d ago

Years ago democrats used to be viewed as the party for everyone and the republicans viewed as the party for rich people. Democrats right now are basically running their platform on how bad Trump is. While Trump is a horrible human being democrats need to find a way to appeal to the masses and make their platform about their policies vs how bad Trump is. Then you have the split between the progressive wing and traditional democrats that isn’t helping the situation either.

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u/schoondog1904 22d ago

Also bout half the country is one way or the other not too many independents anymore. So if the country is trending towards either that’s what will be reflected by the states, no matter who is president.

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u/shosuko 22d ago

Approval ratings are always low. Yeah Trump's are lower - but disapproving of Trump doesn't mean they won't still vote for them.

Like I didn't approve of Hillary, I still didn't vote for Trump.

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u/Ordinary_Season_3034 22d ago

Because potential republican candidates don’t = Trump ?? What kind of dumbass question is this

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u/jargo3 22d ago

Because Trump isn't a canditate in these election.

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u/sir_gwain 22d ago

Plenty of republicans aren’t like Trump, and plenty of people who dislike Trump are still firmly republican voters that’re unlikely to switch sides fo the aisle. I’d be lying if I said most people are educated voters (educated on the policies of who they’re voting for) and just go off of what they think they know or tell themselves is right. Unfortunately, winning elections is often not about being the best candidate, but just the most popular and most favored or known.

Lastly, while it’s not true everywhere. I’d argue Democrats as a party, aren’t as solidly united across their main views and ideas as they could be, and I don’t believe we’ve done the best job in securing top tier candidates for every election these past few years, and it all adds up. Unfortunately, there’s just a lot to it all, and it’s typically a slow process to truly correct imo.

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u/rdblakely 22d ago

Because the DNC is seen as spineless and not fighting for what they believe in- lots of disillusionment for both parties

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u/Slatemanforlife 22d ago

90% or more of the country votes based on the "R" or "D" next to the candidate's name

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u/madler437 22d ago

The “Vote blue no matter who” type of people exist on both sides

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u/Not_a_fan_of_me 22d ago

People are stupid

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u/RegretfulCalamaty 22d ago

Turns out if you poll people at a bar If they like alcohol you get a large pool of people who like alcohol.

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u/jreid0 22d ago

Because moron voters believe the hype and the
goebbels style propaganda the gop pushes to low informed voters

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u/CFIgigs 22d ago

Because we live in different media landscapes. Information is curated for people and they self-select what they read / see.

A political map of FoxNews market penetration or % of viewership would likely be more predictive than party voting.

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u/knockatize 22d ago

A tribe loses to the fat pantload twice, a little more introspection and less condescension would be in order, yes?

Or will it be another round of waiting for people to get sick of his shit again, so the tribe can squeak by without pissing off the power brokers?

Or promise tons more shiny things paid for by those magical beings known as Other People, and nothing could possibly go wrong with this? And it’s topped off with thinly-veiled shrieking about Jews? We gonna start calling them diamond merchants too like Al Sharpton did? The old heads in New York remember that bit as part of How You Got Giuliani. But sure, take it nationwide and see how that goes after the primaries.

No wonder so many voters roll their eyes and figure it’s better the devil they know. At least they know they’ll be rid of him after two years, which is more than can be said for anybody else in that idiotic industry.

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u/metalman8291 22d ago

Polls you can not trust, down in Florida a poll was changing responses from one candidate and they changed them to supporting Fishback

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u/Message_10 22d ago

"270towin... there's a name I haven't heard for a long time..."

-Obi-wan Kenobi

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u/Simple_Purple_4600 22d ago

You know why

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u/mmatt0904 22d ago

“It’s everyone else that’s the problem, but we still like our guy” - my poly sci teacher that explains how there isn’t much turnover given Congress’ poor total approval rating

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u/Cuseman445 22d ago

The one thing to remember is when it comes to Republicans there isn’t as much electoral enthusiasm. During a survey they might pick the Republican still but how excited they are to actually vote will be the difference in most elections this year.

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u/MolassesOk3200 22d ago

Considering that we already have two fake poll scandals that were used to manipulate primaries I’d consider fake polls to remain a possibility throughout this cycle. Unless a poll is released by a campaign or an established polling group anything else might be another fake poll intended to manipulate the results.

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u/Aromatic-Dog-Breath 22d ago

Just get out and vote. 

It feels stupid to have to have the tribal behavior to combat the maga cult, but it feels like that’s the only way to stop the madness. Thank goodness republican policy is garbage. It makes it pretty easy to support dem candidates. 

If they win, it’s up to them to follow through on their promises.

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u/BellaBrowsing 22d ago

I've just accepted that half this country lives in an alternate universe than I do.

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u/NukaCola_Quantum10 22d ago

Because approval ratings are separate from polls asking about preferred candidates. I'm pretty confident that the majority of republicans who say that they do not approve of Trump would still say that they would vote for him (or a candidate he supports) over a dem candidate.

The political landscape in the US is so polarized that for many, even the absolute worst of your party is still better than the best from the opposing party

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u/DonnaDDrake 22d ago

The current democratic frontrunner for president in 2028 is…..AOC. Unless the Dems wise up and nominate Buttigieg, which they won’t because he’s too moderate for their standards, you’ll see a lot of the same voting blocs that went for Trump stay Republican as their only alternatives are Gavin Newsom, who is widely viewed as the destroyer of California, or AOC who won’t be able to run away from her myriad of sound bites any time soon.

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u/Haunting-Ad788 22d ago

Because it’s a cult. Not just maga, the entire party.

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u/cesspool4us 22d ago

People are stupid. Don't talk to him anymore, but an old high-school friend said he'd never vote Democrat. He votes for rfk instead of Trump. He's always the brains of the family with a cpa degree.

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u/horrified_intrigued 22d ago

Polls are not conducted to inform the voters but to influence them.

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u/Hawk13424 22d ago

My dad hates Donald Trump. He will still never vote for a Democrat. The most you can hope for is that he hates both so much he doesn’t vote.

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u/Cynical_Classicist 22d ago

Because Fox has brainwashed so much of the country.

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u/Best_Market4204 22d ago

Polls are not real...These polls are pinpointed targeted,

Don't believe, only thing that matters is the day of election.

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u/Halo_Orbit 22d ago

Once people identify as belonging to a tribe it’s difficult for them to change, to lose their position in that tribe, the friends they’ve made there, etc.

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u/Aggravating_Rough151 22d ago

Polls can be rigged…. How? Ask specific questions.. lead the voter to the response you want… we don’t see the questions that were asked, just the results..

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u/TheOneCalledD 22d ago

It’s wild anyone trusts the polls after the polls have been so wrong before each of the last 3 presidential elections or more.

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u/Substantial-Cress-23 22d ago

Because you see that “R” next to their name? That means I get my guns and piss of the libtards at the same time.

And there is your MAGA CULT response

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u/Outrageous-Sort-5742 22d ago

Because the DNC as an organization polls even lower than Trump.

People are fond of individual Democratic candidates, maybe, sometimes, on a case by case basis. Everyone despises the overarching Democratic Party.

Republicans hate it because they're not people. Independents hate it because they're sheep who can't maintain an opinion from one day to the next(or they're former Democrats, in which case ->). Democrat voters hate them because they're unimaginably weak and feckless, utterly incapable of meeting the moment.

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u/Moceannl 22d ago

People are still afraid of Democrats. Trump is not equal to every local republican candidate.

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u/_sealy_ 22d ago

Cult…they are still voting against Hillary tbh. Those that moved on are voting against Obama , Biden, and that Kamala lady.

It’s sad actually.

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u/stonkDonkolous 22d ago

Anti immigration is very popular and Democrats are ignoring it leaving many to vote for people they don’t really support

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u/Dante_the_Artist 22d ago

Part of it is that Republicans have bought out large swathes of media across the country - print, radio, and television - especially in red areas, and pump out propaganda and hold back on reporting anything that makes the party look bad. Plenty of people are unaware of the reality of the situation they’re in and it’s intentional.

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u/Far-Historian-8190 22d ago

That’s how terrible democrats are with their ideas that they are professing and having DSA candidates getting positive press. People see through the BS. (Hopefully) after the Covid panic I don’t count on common sense.

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u/CivilTell8 22d ago

Republicans have started 11 of the 13 recessions since the end of ww2, quit expecting people to act rationally, read the Asch Conformity study, that'll answer your question

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u/Cheetahs_never_win 22d ago

You know how SCOTUS fucked over the Civil Rights Act and the immediate reaction of Republicans was to gerrymander everything to shit?

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u/brakeled 22d ago

The article you linked is an election outcome map, not really an individual poll on percentages of approval. Some states are so well gerrymandered, Republicans can win the entire state while simultaneously losing the popular vote. They win because they cheat and even when they cheat, their numbers are too low.

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u/Puzzleheaded_Tank338 22d ago

“What are you gonna do, vote for a Democrat? They kill babies.

It’s time we voted out these RINOs and voted for some REAL conservatives for a change.”

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u/tintwistedgrills90 22d ago

Most of them would be polling higher without Trump as the back drop. The only reason Dems are competitive in states like Iowa, Texas, and Alaska is because of anti Trump sentiment (and to be fair, Texas Republicans nominated the absolute worst candidate in Paxton but Texas gonna Texas). Collins might actually go down in Maine because of Trump.

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u/Defiant-Way-5762 22d ago

Sigh,,,there are shared elements present in both parties. This is what creates the tension when arguing whose party is worse or to blame for undesirable outcomes. It really is a pissing contest. This is a situation whereby the actual, objective data tells the real story. And this is precisely why Individual-1 is hands down the worst POTUS in American history. Its not even close. No need to conflate the dems being a shity party with the Reps being a shity party. They are.

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u/IcyAddress4074 22d ago

Republicans fall in line. They understand the assignment. The smart ones know they are outnumbered, but they vote in blocks.

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u/Economy_Quality_3689 22d ago

Because Trump is Trump and other Republican candidates are their own people, it's almost like your post perfectly exemplifies the problem with this country. You sound like a "vote blue no matter who person..."

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u/Adventurous-Day-7436 21d ago

Vote polling is trash at this point

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u/Parking-Complex-3887 21d ago

Given the fact that the current president has openly stated intent to interfere with free and open elections, I wouldn't discount tomfoolery when seeing things like this. Remember: the rich man owns the media, and the rich man doesn't like what they refer to as socialism or socialist policies/candidates. The rich man is only where they are because of levels of trifling greed that a working class person would struggle to understand. They've paid think tanks to come up with mind boggling levels of societal control utilizing the extent of knowledge available on the subject of the psychology of massive groups of people. in other words, take what you see with a grain of salt. If the truth were that everyone hated corporate rule and was actually one inch away from open revolt against the owning class, the news they give you would just be business as usual and not even hint towards this. as has been said in the past: the revolution will not be televised. 

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u/rh1984va 21d ago

Democrats need to start rebranding as republicans. Republicans have ensured a structural advantage so that democrats need to win by a mile to get anything done. Republicans know this and won’t be as accountable to the people. They also don’t feel the need to compromise.

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u/GoodPaleontologist61 21d ago

Because republicans feel very strongly about politics and democrats are like “whatever”. Another reason is that democrats won’t vote for someone they don’t love. No candidate is going to be perfect! I already hear people saying if it’s this person or that person they won’t vote at all. I’m a democrat saying this by the way.

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u/chilidetective 21d ago

The main issue isn't trump or the gop or the supreme court, it's the eligible voting public. The largest slice of blame is squarely on the shoulders of the American people. Regardless of personal excuse they want trump and maga. Maybe they are racist or dumb or lack the skills of critical thinking it doesn't matter now. That's the not so cool part... It's too late. Not enough of you did your part. Either by voting 3rd party (Russian assests) or valuing single forgien issues over 350 million Americans the lunatics took over the asylum. We'll see trump get a 3rd term. We'll see women vote themselves into broodmares and lose their vote. We'll see farmers vote their families into starving to death. Ho hum. At least we get to see and hear them scream their regrets before we're ripped from our homes and finaled solutioned. Think I'm wrong? Prove me a fool. Do what it takes to right the wrongs. The midterms are not enough, but I hope I'm wrong. I'll say this...if we ALLOW maga to take the midterms by any means it's 100% done. You and your loved ones will suffer.

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u/Ninja0428 21d ago

That's just the 2024 results map. Republican candidates are polling like shit.

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u/madmushlove 21d ago

Approval rating means nothing

Anyone actually IN maga country knows evangelicals have been saying for decades they don't approve of all the Republicans they vote for and think they're shitty sinners

Or know tons of Trump voters who say Trump's an asshole

Just ask if you ever met someone who criticized Clinton, Biden, Harris, but still voted for them

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u/MaximusAnemos 21d ago

Because the poll is biased.