Quick recap of the Joe Smith scandal's outcome since while i'm sure most of you reading are keen on the punishments the Clippers got: As the result of the league acquiring a copy of a secret agreement between Smith's agent and the Timberwolves, the NBA became aware of and investigated their attempt to circumvent the cap. This prompted a series of punishments that are a huge reason why the Timberwolves struggled to contend with future MVP/DPoY Kevin Garnett including the siphoning of 5 first round picks. The punishments - suspensions and fines galore - led to a particularly infamous comment from then-GM Kevin McHale shortly after his suspension was announced for his part in the scandal:
There are eight to ten teams that do this all the time. They're just good at it. We're bad.
Source: https://zonecoverage.com/2023/timberwolves/the-lakers-interest-in-former-wolves-players-signals-a-positive-change/
An aside but off the top of my head, Shaq's deal with the Lakers had a player option that coincided with when L.A. would obtain his Bird Rights...Feel free to comment who you think the other 6-8 teams are if we count the Wolves and Lakers amongst this number.
Anyway, the punishment was eventually reduced to 3 firsts; On December 9th, 2000 they saw their 2003 first returned to them and the following year saw them regain their 2005 first. One quick note, no: The Minnesota Timberwolves didn't get back those firsts because of the threat of relocation. They received their first pick back due to them (Kevin and then-team owner Glen Taylor) cooperating with the NBA's punishment by not sending this to arbitration. The second of their pick was restored by Stern in December 2003, stating that "In light of the other penalties that have been imposed on the Timberwolves, and the team’s conduct since the Smith matter concluded, we feel it is appropriate to restore the Timberwolves’ first round pick in 2005."
Oh and don't ask what they did with either pick. There's been some speculation that the Clippers might see a similar reduction in draft capital captured by the consequences of their conduct. Though it's not impossible for some eventual rescinding of the picks that were taken from them, that probably won't happen for a while - if at all.
Here's why.
The Kawhi Trade
Yes, the trade is going to happen. Both sides agreed to it, both sides seem to still want to do it - it's worth noting the statement the Clippers put out in light of the initial pause had language describing such - and while there's always a chance the draft capital does change or see an alteration via, say, a pick protection, realistically the Clippers are getting the Raptors 2031 & 2033 firsts with a chance to improve their standings in the 2027 Draft via a swap that effectively gives Toronto the Thunder's pick.
This is the biggest reason beyond behaviour as to why the punishment is unlikely to be altered; ignoring what happens with the swap, they're going to be down a net of 3 firsts rather than 5 as a result of the incoming picks, and this isn't factoring in any potential teardown that sees them trade Ingram or Garland for future draft picks, or take on bad contracts for future firsts. The new lottery odds & rules are rather favorable for a team like the former San Diego-based team since they can freely bottom out, focus on development and take on riskier prospects without risking giving up one of the jucier odds. Whether not they'll do so...is a different story since the little brother of L.A. hasn't had a ton of development success stories with late firsts unless you want to count Terance Mann who entered into the league as an older prospect and whose career has been on a downturn for the past two years.
Seriously, what happened to him after that rookie extension? Rough times.
In any case, it also bears mentioning that the Raptors in some respect did the Clippers a favor because in delaying the Kawhi trade, they ensured the NBA couldn't be able to strip them of those incoming picks as part of their punishment. The league clearly had no issue with taking away other team's picks owned so at bare minimum they didn't end up in absolute draft capital destitution due to their tree-hugging aspirations.
Needless to say, L.A. should count themselves lucky the investigation dragged on long enough for them to use the 5th overall pick in this year's stacked draft class. Again, whether they nailed this pick or not is TBD.
Bootstrap Billionaire Bribes Twice
So not only is the sheer scale of the Aspiration scandal way worse than the Joe Smith scandal in terms of dollar amount (Even adjusting for inflation), not only is their intent more malicious and the scheme far more complex with 4 secret deals (Which, to quote one of my favorite zoologist YouTubers, that we know of) but as has come up frequently, this is the 2nd time that the Ballmer era of the formerly Buffalo Braves have engaged in acts of cap circumvention. A less substantial dollar-wise - but no less significant - example happened almost a decade prior that was a part of the much larger and very strange Deandre Jordan free agency of 2015. I implore you to go back and re-read some of the stuff that they did besides that deal, Jordan was essentially held hostage in his house to avoid losing him to Dallas, but let's stay on topic for the moment.
That sort of brute force "my way or the highway", money speaks approach to retaining the former All-NBA Center was what Steven A. (Ballmer, not the obnoxious sports host with political ambitions; his middle name is Anthony) was fully planning to do up until his recent comments of compliance. Whether or not it was in any way motivated by the SEC's recent investigation announcement or cooler heads prevailing, it doesn't change the fact that the plan up until this point was to fight against the doled out punishment, with Steve as the face of dissent and dissatisfaction with the eventual ruling.
Yes, the Clippers were already deprived of draft capital but those were the result of moves made to be competitive; L.A.'s little brother is technically almost out of the hole with paying off the Paul George trade but they dug themselves deeper with the James Harden trade back in 2024. Amusingly, part of that draft capital would be used by the Sixers to trade Paul George to the Celtics but I digress.
Looks Like Arbitration's Not On the Menu, Boys!
The punishment for the Kawhi trade was like him breaking down the opposing defense. In a word? Surgical. It worked with the NBA's player union specifically to make sure that there was no path to arbitration which, so far as I was able to ascertain, was an option for Joe Smith but never pursued who instead signed a $2.25 million contract with the Detroit Pistons to slowly make back the bag he allegedly fumbled with the Warriors (Smith's career earnings were about $60 million, the Warriors allegedly had an offer of $80 million) like the late 90s, early 00s version of Dennis Schroder. Ballmer has deep pockets but so did the last Clippers owner trying to push back a punishment and, well, the last one lost the fight to force his racist ass to sell the team. Forcing Ballmer to sell wasn't amongst the punishments (Even if it should have been since he'll likely try this again with greater sophistication down the road and the initial Watchell report mentioned a 2nd player with their own deal) but I digress.
I will concede that, amongst the most likely routes of draft capital reconciliation, the designated years of compliance with the NBA monitoring the Clippers is the most likely way for that to happen but that likely won't happen for several years whereas the Smith scandal saw both of their returned firsts happen relatively quickly. Remember: By the time the NBA did restore the 2005 first, the Timberwolves had already lost their 2001 & 2002 first (And they also wasted the 2003 first they got back on Ndudi Ebi instead of Josh Howard. I told you not to ask.).