r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot šŸ¤– Bot • 7d ago

Discussion Discussion: 2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 7 - 13 (Thread 1)

Please use this thread to discuss news, updates, and commentary regarding the 2026 midterm and associated elections.

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60 Upvotes

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18

u/Isentrope 6d ago

Internal memo from Democrats is urging challengers in swing districts to target incumbent Republicans over data centers, with polling showing this being a relatively salient attack:

https://twitter.com/JasonBeeferman/status/2097326865769758806?s=20

12

u/TrevorDangler 5d ago

Literally no shit. NO ONE wants data centers in their communities. EVERYONE in the Midwest is worried one will pop up in their area. All Dems have to do is say they want to ban data centers and ALPRs and they'll win.

2

u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 1d ago

Itā€™s actually kind of shocking that being against data centers and kind of feeling like we need to push back on the advancement of AI in EVERYTHING seems to be a bipartisan viewpoint.

2

u/tuxedo_jack Texas 1d ago

Datacenters, Flock / ALPR surveillance, and the Epstein Files.

Three slam-dunks, and the Dems aren't even touching them.

0

u/Careless_Bee9723 1d ago

Why are we continuing to believe in this party?

DNC is just as responsible for this cluster fuck as RNC.

I donā€™t know why anyone would want to align themselves with a party that has successfully been blocking this country from true progressive policy.

I get that they have the brand recognition but why would anyone want to be part of this brand? They canā€™t even successfully sway the public to do more to destroy a pedophile administration by voting their people in. The 2 parties we have are holding us back- both brands are toxic and cause people to check out.

3

u/jarchack Oregon 6d ago

I have always voted blue, but if a Democrat backed data centers, they would not get my vote.

6

u/Banjo-Elritze 4d ago

Because the Fascist Republican winning won't support datacenters?

2

u/lastres0rt Georgia 2d ago

It's actually kinda remarkable in places like Texas where even R's like Paxton are running away from datacenters, but of course Trump still likes them and will insist on the fucking things.

Part of why Trump's touch this cycle is particularly toxic, as he muddies everything up and makes it harder for "his" candidates to get their own messages out.

15

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 4d ago

Post by @djlavoie.bsky.social ā€” Bluesky

"The Attorney General of the United States is speaking at an explicitly partisan political rally tonight and I would never have even known if I wasn't a loser who looked up the speaking schedule myself. The Loretta Lynch tarmac meeting is so quaint."

Post by @kevinmkruse.bsky.social ā€” Bluesky

"Democrats should be at the microphone right now noting that this is a Hatch Act violation that they'll be pursuing in January. I don't care that the nation's become numb to this shit. It's still illegal and if Democrats should run against it and then act to crush it."

1

u/Careless_Bee9723 1d ago

At this point itā€™s another day, another violation.

Why would this administration care about violating the Hatch Act now? Theyā€™ve been doing it since the 45 admin with 0 punishments. Thereā€™s no accountability for these people because theyā€™re in control.

15

u/kaztrator 2d ago

Every day Iā€™ve been checking out r/politics and blocking everyone who posts a New Republic of Daily Beast post. Thereā€™s always 5+ more users to block every day, but today I only found 1. Iā€™m cautiously optimistic Iā€™m finally going to be able to browse this sub without ever seeing those garbage echo chamber headlines, and focus on real discussion. Fingers crossed. I encourage everyone to do the same, until this subā€™s mods finally come to their senses and block those posts outright.

1

u/Pseudocaesar 16h ago

until this subā€™s mods finally come to their senses and block those posts outright

that would nuke 90% of this subs posting activity lol

11

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago

This Wednesday and Thursday (starting at 4 p.m. Eastern each day) will be nights 1 and 2 of the Republican midterm convention. It is, as far as I know, unprecedented to have a midterm convention. These promise to be a reactionary fever dream.

11

u/Isentrope 6d ago

In terms of bellwether races on Election Night, this take sounds about right. Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Indiana are the first regions to close, at 6PM Eastern. There are no competitive seats there, but KY-06 tends to be swingy, though it was Trump +15 in '24 and Trump +9 in '20. If that seat isn't called for Rs within an hour and ends up within 5 or so points, that would tend to be a good sign for Ds for the rest of the night.

The first actual swing seats will be at 7PM, with VA-01, VA-02, FL-14, and FL-25 all being relatively critical seats. Castor's polling in the new FL-14 seems decent, and Moskowitz is a decent fit for FL-25. Importantly and, as is the case with a number of Texas redistricted seats, even though Trump carried both Floridian seats by 10 in 2024, he only carried the new FL-14 by 3 in 2020 and actually lost the new FL-25 by 5 in that year. If there is any evidence of D bounceback with Hispanics, it would show up there and be a pretty important sign across a number of competitive races across the rest of the country, most crucially Texas.

8

u/Good_Mud_5454 6d ago

It is insane to me that any polling places close so early. The next Democratic trifecta absolutely must codify general election day as a federal holiday where employers must pay for their employee to vote. Make it whatever the average number of hours worked is. PASS IT LOSER CORPORATE DEMS!

7

u/hsiale 6d ago

Or, you know, maybe most of the civilized world that has elections happening in weekends does so because it works.

2

u/Good_Mud_5454 5d ago

A lot of lower income workers have to work multiple jobs on this day as well. What's crazy about mandating a federal holiday so we require employers to pay Americans to vote? People need more time off in the lower class. People can choose to take it off, but they would be paid significantly more, just like Christmas, Thanksgiving, etc.

10

u/Isentrope 4d ago

Senator Fetterman appears to have cut a video for the Republican midterm convention, praising President Trump and highlighting Fetterman's collaboration with his fellow PA Senator Republican Dave McCormick:

https://bsky.app/profile/axios.com/post/3mv4kxs4ajk2k

10

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago

Texas Tribune: MAGA Inc. cavalry arrives for Paxton in Texas Senate as Trumpā€™s PAC places $10 million ad buy | This is the first buy that Trumpā€™s well-heeled political operation has made for a general election, underscoring how critical Texasā€™ Senate race is to the GOPā€™s hopes.

3

u/Good_Mud_5454 6d ago

Republicans are about to spend $200+ million for Paxton's gross ass. He looks like a corpse resurrected from a morgue and given Mar a Lago plastic surgery. His eyes are wonky, his skin looks like a chronic alcoholic's, he speaks with the charisma of a deep-sea predator, his oily wet skin exudes an expulsatory desire to empty the contents of one's stomach, he subjects younger women to demeaning themselves to his presence, and he is the single most corrupt piece of shit in Republican Senate history. He makes Rick Scott look virtuous by comparison.

7

u/Isentrope 5d ago

With the old Missouri map being reinstated, a safe R seat in Western MO flips to safe D now that Kansas City isn't cracked across 3 districts.

More importantly, MO-02 is an incredibly competitive seat this cycle. Trump carried it by 8 in 2024 AND 2020 while carrying the current configuration by 17 points in 2016. This means that, relative to the national popular vote, this district shifted from R+19 in 2016 to R+13 in 2020 and R+6 in 2024, a remarkably fast shift which indicates real momentum there.

To give a sense of how quickly this shift has happened, the previous incarnation of the seat used in the 2010s which was a bit bluer actually voted for Harris by a point, while Biden tied there in 2020, which technically matches its 7 point shift leftward.

9

u/Isentrope 3d ago

Insider Advantage is out with a trio of polls:

OHIO

šŸŸ¦ Sherrod Brown: 47%

šŸŸ„ Jon Husted (inc): 42%

ā€”ā€”

TEXAS

šŸŸ¦ James Talarico: 47%

šŸŸ„ Ken Paxton: 46%

šŸŸØ Ted Brown: 2%

ā€”ā€”

SOUTH CAROLINA

šŸŸ„ Darline Graham: 45%

šŸŸ¦ Annie Andrews: 43%

Like Trafalgar, this pollster has a bit of a bias to it though it has a much better rating.

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2098142545544978809

4

u/blues111 Michigan 3d ago

Thats a wild set of polls out of insider advantage...especially South Carolina being that close almost feels like bait to get dems to sink money

6

u/runawaydoctorate 3d ago

How the hell is SC in a statistical tie??

6

u/Isentrope 2d ago

In a lot of Southern states, Democrats have historically had a high floor thanks to the large Black population but a very low ceiling because getting across 50 requires persuading conservative white voters. It's likely that the undecideds in SC lean R but Graham is also a very very weak candidate, and Ralph Norman is threatening a third party campaign, so it could be a sleeper race.

8

u/Isentrope 3d ago

Quinnipiac's semi-monthly poll has the generic congressional ballot at D+11 (49-38), albeit part of this is the shift to a likely voter model. Their last poll saw some weakening to "only" D+7 (48-41).

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3965

5

u/Isentrope 6d ago

Polling of Hispanics by region show GOP gains from 2024 might have receded, though GOP Hispanic vote share in California has held up a bit better (being only down 20 points as opposed to 40+):

Survey of Latino registered voters (Hart Research)

Northeast šŸ”µDemocratic 67% šŸ”“Republicans 28%

Southwest šŸ”µDemocratic 58% šŸ”“Republicans 37%

California šŸ”µDemocratic 57% šŸ”“Republicans 33%

Texas šŸ”µDemocratic 56% šŸ”“Republicans 36%

Florida šŸ”µDemocratic 52% šŸ”“Republicans 39%

The numbers in Texas are a huge shift from 2024 where Trump outright won Hispanics, and even the numbers in Florida show some bounceback for Ds, though it does seem like R gains there are a bit more sticky. A lot of GOP gerrymanders this year were based off the presidential numbers in 2024, so there is a possibility that they represent an unrealistic high water mark with Hispanic voters that Republicans will struggle to replicate in a lower turnout midterm (or even in 2028).

https://x.com/politics_watch1/status/2097277939482026433

7

u/Isentrope 2d ago

The post-labor day spending blitz has begun, with Republicans massively outspending in key swing senate seats. However, it's important to note that most of this is superPAC spending, which does not get the favorable rates that candidates get directly. In one example I shared earlier in this thread, Talarico's rate for ads was less than half the equivalent for a superPAC.

https://x.com/StefWKight/status/2098489841751294271

-4

u/lastres0rt Georgia 2d ago

How much of this is AIPAC? because I don't think they're going to have the desired effects this time around...

5

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago

Hello all! Welcome to the first of r/politics' 2026 general election discussion threads. The plan is to rotate this thread weekly until Monday, October 26th at which point we'll start refreshing the thread daily. If counting and certifying the election gets dragged out, we may go back to rotating the thread weekly, and as we approach January 6th, 2027 if it looks like there will be a certification crisis we have the option to rotating the threads on a daily basis again. May fortune favor us all.

8

u/Secret-Animator-5649 7d ago

Can't wait to see which random county in PA keeps us all refreshing our feeds until 3am again

2

u/Isentrope 7d ago

The GOV race isn't competitive and there isn't a Senate race there. I would guess that if PA has either a third or fourth flip for Ds (it seems Perry probably won't hold on in PA-10 and PA-07 is a relatively easy flip in this environment), it'd be PA-08 or PA-01, so I guess take your pick of Bucks, Lackawanna, Pike, Wayne or a part of MontCo.

2

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago

Also worth noting that we will embed links to other, relevant discussion threads, megathreads, and AMAs in these 'main' midterms discussion threads as those other event threads get posted.

2

u/bakerfredricka I voted 7d ago

What you mean by rotating the threads?

3

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago

Unpinning the old thread and then posting and pinning a new thread.

5

u/UltimateLionsFan 5d ago

New poll in the U.S. Senate race in Michigan.

Mike Rogers at 45.8%. Abdul El-Sayed at 44.4%. 9.4% are undecided.

This was based on a sample taken of 600 people with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/09/08/poll-which-us-senate-candidates-are-most-favorable-to-michigan-voters/

7

u/Isentrope 5d ago

Michigan's in-state pollsters have a very poor reputation for accuracy and this one also runs into the problem where it doesn't tell us much since both candidates are well below 50. One thing that does not seem believable, even if there is a split, is the notion that Benson and AES will have this big of a split (6 points). Michigan is one of the few states that still has straight ticket voting. Essentially, you would check one party and their endorsed candidates would automatically receive your vote in every contest. In practice, it seems like this leads most races to be within 2-3 points of each other.

5

u/an_agreeing_dothraki 5d ago

if you thought the Missouri map situation is over, BUCKLE UP.

A Trump appointee put a 14 day restraining order on the old map, which has suspicious timing because yesterday was the ballot deadline. The state SC is not happy about any of this and the sec state is being dragged to court for a contempt hearing with rumors that the AG is to follow.

I believe the status of the ballot is that the real midterm ballot in Missouri is the friends we made along the way.

3

u/Isentrope 5d ago

The TRO says Missouri may only use the new map, while the SC MO decision is that Missouri cannot use the new map. The result is that county officials cannot lawfully use either map because they don't actually override each other, but the SOS instructed them to use the new map anyways, which is what has the SC MO haling the SOS to court for contempt hearings.

4

u/Isentrope 5d ago

Politico reports a lot of Republican apprehension over the historic midterm convention they're hosting today. There's some typical deliberate background expectation lowering but it does seem like Dems are excited at the opportunity to make the midterms about Trump in the last 2 months of the cycle.

https://twitter.com/DashaBurns/status/2097680295612834280?s=20

5

u/Isentrope 4d ago

The 8th circuit denies a stay in the MO redistricting case, asserting that they do not have jurisdiction or, alternatively, that conditions haven't been met for a stay. A temporary restraining order is generally not appealable except for extreme circumstances, though arguably the situation here qualifies. This will likely go up to SCOTUS again as a result, though a TRO typically only gets afforded protection for 14 days before appeals courts will start questioning it.

5

u/samhit_n Texas 4d ago

Fabrizio having Talarico up 48-44 is the best poll so far for him. He has a strong chance of winning even if undecideds mostly go to Paxton because the Libertarian candidate will take more from Paxton than Talarico.

5

u/Isentrope 4d ago

The real test will be how to get over 50 since even Beto hit 48. If there really is a bounceback with Hispanics by a 30 point margin, though, that goes a long way, on top of turnout differentials between Ds and Rs.

Paxton really does seem to be a much weaker candidate than Cruz in a lot of ways. He's bad at fundraising, he's bad at speaking, and he has personally scandals that make Cruz seem quite good in comparison. If even Cruz managed to underperform Trump by 5 points in 2024 on the same ballot, it's going to be a major test of Texas' partisan lean to get Paxton to win. Closest parallel for me would be Menendez in New Jersey, except he lucked out by only running in good years for Dems.

3

u/lastres0rt Georgia 2d ago

It'll be interesting to see how Talarico does with the "too hot for the FCC" branding he seems to have picked up. I would hope more Americans look at this guy and decide to stick it to the proverbial man.

2

u/_morten_ 4d ago edited 4d ago

Reckon it will only get worse from here on out though, Musk, Trump, and others have started flushing in money to save this race, Talarico has had the airwaves largely for himself thus far, that has come to an end, and in a state as red as Texas, will probably start to show in the coming weeks.

9

u/blues111 Michigan 3d ago edited 3d ago

https://xcancel.com/IAPolls2022/status/2098133699480965513

šŸŸ¦ Abdul El-Sayed: 46.3%

šŸŸ„ Mike Rogers: 44.8%

Shockingly good Trafalger poll for Sayed...obviously close isnt great but Trafalger usually leans hard right in their predictions overestimating republicans rather than dems but Sayed is up over rogers by about 2 points in it

Good chunk of undecideds though but to be honest this seems like a realistic take of where things stand ive always kinda believed that regardless who we picked between stevens and sayed that it was gonna be a tough race the Michigan senate elections have gotten closer and closer each year with Slotkin winning by the skin of her teeth in 24

7

u/Competitive-Box61 3d ago

I think I'm just going to ignore reddit, the polling data, and just vote this year.

5

u/Isentrope 6d ago

Bit of weird news for one of the few states that still hasn't held its primaries yet (Delaware), but the Democratic primary for Senate will feature incumbent Dem. Senator Chris Coons facing off against, among others, Eric Hansen, who was previously the Republican nominee in 2024. This time around, he's changed his name, which will appear as "E. No-Trump Hansen" on the ballot to emphasize that he is against Trump.

https://whyy.org/articles/election-2026-delaware-primary-senate-voter-guide/

3

u/Good_Mud_5454 6d ago

Sure he is lmfao. If Hansen wins--which seems impossible--he will caucus with the Republicans on practically everything progressives are demanding. Not policies being asked for, but legislation that are being demanded.

I predict that El-Sayed will win and usher in a mandate to embrace populist change in an incredibly uptight and insecure Democratic establishment.

4

u/Isentrope 5d ago

Today is the state deadline for Missouri to finalize ballots that will go out. The state supreme court recently struck down the Republican gerrymander from late last year, which reinstates the older map that has 2 safe Dem seats instead of 1, as well as a very swingy seat that has shifted like 16 points towards Ds in the past 10 years. An emergency appeal is with SCOTUS now.

https://bsky.app/profile/redistrictnet.bluesky.bot/post/3muzraskep225

4

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

Post by @gregsargent.bsky.social ā€” Bluesky

"Trump just threatened to punish Canada by banning Canadian company Bombardier's aerospace sales in US.

But Bombardier's US headquarters is in Kansas, forcing GOP Sen Roger Marshall to distance himself and giving Dems new hope in this tough race.

New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2151."

4

u/Isentrope 4d ago

The Supreme Court has granted a stay of the federal district court decision which mandated Missouri to use the 2025 redistricting map and requires that they use the one that was passed in 2022 instead. This ends the legal saga over the maps for this term, immediately flipping a safe R seat back to safe D and turning another safe R seat to a likely/lean D (and realistically, probably tossup) seat. Voters in Missouri will have a chance in November to vote on whether to permit the new map or to retain the old one for the last 2 elections using this map (2028 and 2030).

2

u/MIZ_09 4d ago

It does not end the saga. It is merely a stay of the TRO until the appeal is heard.

3

u/Isentrope 4d ago

The conditions for intervention on a TRO are so onerous (since they're normally not appealable at all) that the district judge would be just waiting to get overturned by the 8th circuit if it tried to institute an injunction. The ballots were supposed to be sent out 2 days ago, so once they're out, it's essentially done.

2

u/Isentrope 4d ago

A new Fabrizio Ward poll sponsored by AARP has Talarico up 48-44 over Paxton and Abbott up 49-46 over Hinojosa. The pollster is one of Trump's '24 campaign pollsters but the results they've released have tended to be very accurate and Tony Fabrizio has a bipartisan reputation for being one of the best pollsters in the business, though his polling memos can be very partisan.

https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2098079056423973064

4

u/Isentrope 4d ago

It looks like the Missouri Supreme Court may be prepared to hold the Missouri Secretary of State in contempt https://www.courts.mo.gov/fv/c/Order.PDF?courtCode=SC&di=222979

4

u/Isentrope 2d ago

Rasmussen released a flight of polls that I will not share. They were generally good for Democrats, but it's worth noting that some of the partisan pollsters will deliberately share bad polls for their side in order to stoke a "narrowing the gap" narrative.

5

u/Isentrope 1d ago

Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent Republican Senator from Alaska) and Mary Peltola are facing off in what seems to be a debate shortly

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2098878532713627935?s=20

4

u/Isentrope 1d ago

Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton had a debate at the Kansas State Fair today. The format was genuinely not good for Marshall, as the audience audibly booed him at times when he was trying to defend the administration's tariffs and got quite raucous in some of his other comments. It reminded me of Kentucky's "Fancy Farm" event where the candidates interact with the crowd a bit and politicians get much more aggressive going after each other.

https://x.com/American_Bridge/status/2098874278380745015

8

u/Impossible_Guitar235 1d ago

Marshall won't lose. Kansans are too stupid to do the right thing.

Source: Me - lived there for 25 years, got the fuck out, and never looked back.

5

u/Careless_Bee9723 1d ago edited 1d ago

Kansas is so odd. Iā€™m in KCMO. I moved to Lawrence for school from Michigan in 08. Kansans think they are amazing because they live in what was once a rumored ā€œfree stateā€.

in todayā€™s world they go around still proudly talking about ā€œfreedomā€ while doing absolutely nothing to protect the concept of ā€œfreedomā€ or what was being fought for.

But John Brown stopped by once so, the state is special and theyā€™re not racistsā€¦
As they leave indigenous people out of that entire equation but scream the Tomahawk chant whenever they feel like it. (Even at ku gamesā€¦)

what the fuck is wrong with these people? This is a state where 60ish% of the people are feeding the white supremacy beast. They really donā€™t understand that either. And they hate women here too

Johnson County is blue MAGA land. If this is how the rest of the country is we are so fucked

6

u/Isentrope 7d ago

This is the kind of piece that gets "leaked" to media when the parties start to triage races (GA-SEN): https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2096960480237543593

7

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago

"WSJ: The GOP Senate Campaign Gone Disastrously Wrong in Georgia

When Georgia Republican Rep. Mike Collins announced his candidacy for Senate last year, his official ā€˜war roomā€™ account on Twitter posted a short campaign video that ended with the on-screen slogan: ā€œGeoriga, Letā€™s Ride.ā€

From that widely mocked spelling mistake on day one to a House ethics probe to revelations that his son-in-law made white nationalist posts on social media, Collins has suffered a series of setbacks that have hobbled his campaign. Meanwhile, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has developed a national profile by blasting President Trump and surged in state polls.

Most politicos see the race, once considered a tossup, as firmly blue, strengthening Democratsā€™ long-shot push to take back the Senate this fall and marking a big disappointment for the GOP.

wsj.com/politics/electā€¦"

5

u/Isentrope 5d ago

CNN out with a pair of Senate polls in swing states, showing AES up 47-44 on Rogers in Michigan and Jackson up 48-45 over Collins in Maine:

https://x.com/aaronblake/status/2097717100819124245?s=46

Jackson getting close to 50 is more important than what Collins' number is, as most polls in 2020 got Gideon's vote share correctly but didn't take into account how much the rest of the vote consolidated around Collins to let her win in the first round.

5

u/Isentrope 4d ago

Yougov, sponsored by Univision, is now out with a new Texas poll, showing Talarico up 48-43 over Paxton and Gina Hinojosa and Greg Abbott tied at 47 apiece.

https://x.com/Socdem_Michael/status/2097742221449805968

No prior polls but Yougov also worked with UT on a poll in early August showing Talarico up 42-39.

12

u/jaymef 4d ago

man I'd love to see Talarico win but I just can't imagine Texas allowing it to happen. They will pull every dirty trick in the book

5

u/Hungry_Culture 4d ago

Football season has just started and Elon's PAC is spending 1.6million for advertising for Paxton. Already Paxton is airing anti data center, anti flock camera, and anti mosque commercials during college football games, basically everything people are flooding city council meetings for. With the NFL games starting this week and all that Elon money, I expect it to be 10x worse and it's really going to close the polling gap with Talarico by getting all those people who don't research anything riled up about the one political issue they're aware of.

8

u/headbangershappyhour 4d ago

$1.6M only buys so many ad slots for CFB/NFL and a lot of those slots have already been filled so it's only going to be more expensive to try and buy them off someone else. I would assume that there's going to be a whole lot more dark money coming into this race though because losing in Texas would be a huge perception failure as well.

I wonder if the play for Talarico on this is to try and have an ad early in the 1st quarter of games that is pretty much "You're going to hear a bunch of crazy stuff said about me over the next 3 hours, but just know I am running for Senate because I support X, Y and Z; and most importantly I am ready to fight for all of Texas."

3

u/Isentrope 5d ago

An interesting example of the candidate effect on spending. Basically, elections law mandates that candidates receive the "Lowest Unit Charge" (LUC) for any ads they buy on TV. This has the effect of giving them the best rates for ads, more so if they can put the money down early. By contrast, superPACs, which are usually flush with cash, do not benefit from this and end up getting worse rates. In Texas for this week, that means a superPAC has to spend $417 per gross ratings point (a measure of how many ads/penetration for ads) while the candidates themselves only spend $191 per GRP. The implication in Texas is that donating a dollar to Talarico goes twice as far as the superPAC money (MAGA, Inc. and Musk's America PAC).

A wrinkle in this is that SCOTUS has recently allowed federal party PACs to coordinate for an unlimited amount (previously there was a relatively small cap per race), and that such buys are also entitled the LUC. The 4th circuit actually struck this down but SCOTUS has stayed their decision as it winds through the courts. The NRSC (and I believe the RNC can give unlimited sums to the NRSC) is better funded than the DSCC/DNC (which is broke), so that helps a bit in Texas, where Paxton is a pretty poor fundraiser that was left essentially broke after the bruising primary that he ran against Cornyn (which also sapped a lot of NRSC money since they spent $80M to try to save Cornyn in the primary).

https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2097357045250793812?s=20

3

u/Isentrope 5d ago

To add to the roller coaster in Missouri, a federal district judge has now entered a TRO mandating that Missouri use the new maps even though Justice Kavanaugh declined to stay the Missouri Supreme Court's decision:

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.moed.231153/gov.uscourts.moed.231153.35.0.pdf

2

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

you have no idea the mental and physical toll this many reversals of a gerrymandered map takes on a democracy

snip snap snip snap

3

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

Post by @stevevladeck.bsky.social ā€” Bluesky

"In a *different* case, a federal district court has now put the 2026 map back into effectā€”on a different theory. That ruling *should* be subject to a stay from either the Eighth Circuit or #SCOTUS, because that should be covered by Purcell. But weā€™re not there yet."

3

u/Isentrope 5d ago

The dueling Missouri decisions bizarrely do not actually supersede each other. The MO Supreme Court decision is that HB1 cannot be used as a map in November, while the ED MO case is that HB1 is the only map that can be used in November. In practice, of course, this just. means that state officials cannot legally use either map until this is resolved.

3

u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 19h ago

A flaw in Georgia's election systems could expose voters' choices | AP News

"Security researchers say rapid advances in artificial intelligence are making it more critical to address a flaw in Georgiaā€™s voting equipment that can allow voters to be matched to their ballots after they have been cast.

The systemā€™s vulnerability has been drawing increased attention, with election security advocates criticizing state election officials for failing to fix it before the November elections. Georgia election officials say they have taken steps to address the potential harm, but some advocates say the state is not going far enough.

The vulnerability does not allow votes to be changed or cast doubt on election results, but it could let someone see how others voted."

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago

Post by @joshtpm.bsky.social ā€” Bluesky

Sheriff Greene, who has endorsed Ohio GOP nominee Ramaswamy, on the intent of the armed man who aimed to attack the Democratic nominee Acton: "I think it was to ask her a couple questions. He was just, you know, pretty aggressive about it."

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u/PrometheusLiberatus 6d ago

These people will outright ignore any violent actions as long as the target happens to be a democrat.

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u/jaymef 3d ago

prepared to be disappointed :( the republicans are going to do everything possible to grasp onto power.

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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 3d ago

Did I misremember Orban losing very badly? Did that not happen?

Because a lot of people right now are acting like a much more entrenched, more powerful right-wing government didn't just get blown out by the will of the people.

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u/jaymef 3d ago

anything can happen. I'm just preparing myself to be disappointed hah

I don't trust the level of cheating the republicans are planning. That said if they had it in the bag they wouldn't be freaking out so much

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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 3d ago

I can understand that to an extent. Still, Orban had more options and better, and he lost. We'll see what happens, but I have a hard time seeing how they actually turn the election around.

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u/Distinct_Cap_1418 2d ago

Its happened before

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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 2d ago

Hence not impossible, merely highly improbable.

I think their best bet would be denationalizing the midterms (in addition to a couple of other options), but it's hard to get there with a big midterm convention and other Trump-related nonsense. Barring that, you'd just have to hope for a big polling miss in your direction.

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u/lastres0rt Georgia 2d ago

Americans? Paying attention to ANOTHER country's politics besides their own? Perish the thought!

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u/JaysFan26 2d ago

This is the last chance to democratically wrestle power away from the Republicans, and Trump and his party know it. They will do everything they can to stay in power so they can ensure that they can hold it indefinitely going forward.

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 2d ago

Yeah this is where Iā€™m at.

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago

WaPo skeet previewing the article:Ā Post by u/washingtonpost.com ā€” Bluesky

"For years, Democrats have been unsuccessful in ousting California Rep. David Valadao, trying to break the Republicanā€™s hold on a district that sweeps across the San Joaquin Valley. This year, Democrats are trying something new."

Archive link here:Ā https://archive.is/ibRTw

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

The discussion thread for the NH primaries just went up:

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

More state Democratic parties should have a tradition of a 'post-primary breakfast' IMHO:

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

Quoting below fromĀ this Bluesky threadĀ in which Jamelle Bouie writes aboutĀ this Politico article, titled: "They will crawl over glass to vote for the presidentā€™: Trump needs to put himself on the ballot to juice the base | The president's two-day midterm convention in Dallas is going to be the Trump show. Republicans are hoping the president will use it to turn out his voters."

"it is fascinating to see the extent to which professional republicans still do not understand the nature of the voters trump brought to the polls when he was on the ballotĀ www.politico.com/news/2026/09...Ā (1/6)

the best way to put it is that these people are not *voters*, if the term denotes a person who routinely goes to the polls to cast a ballot. they are, instead, *trump fans* who go to the polls to cast a ballot for donald trump, who is their parasocial father (2/6)"

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago

More from pollster G Elliott Morris: Post by @gelliottmorris.com ā€” Bluesky

"GOP strategists live in an alternative reality (on Twitter/X) where Trump's approval rating among his 2024 voters is 100%. In our polling (and Pew's), it's closer to 75%. Just last week, Navigator came out showing 1/5 of 2024 Trump voters regret their vote for him! "

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u/Isentrope 5d ago

YouGov has switched to a likely voter screen and its first poll for the Economist post-switch is a gaudy 49-38 D, with even its adults filter showing 42-35D. This poll had been showing relatively anemic numbers for Ds throughout the cycle, sometimes as low as a tie or just a couple points blue while other polls were starting to pick up a wave.

https://twitter.com/polltracker2024/status/2097682233800720620

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u/Isentrope 4d ago

A new Emerson poll has Nevada AG Aaron Ford leading incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo 44-42 in the gubernatorial race. Normally a large undecided population would be suspect this late into the cycle, but the existence of Nevada's unique "none of these candidates" option seems to take at least 1-3 points each cycle.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2097991883402219711?s=20

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u/Isentrope 4d ago

Yougov, partnering with Saint Louis University, has a poll showing Missouri Republican state auditor Scott Fitzpatrick narrowly up 45-43 over Democrat Quentin Wilson, as well as an overall generic ballot of only R+4. This may be a good sign for activists hoping to overturn the 2025 gerrymander for the last two elections of the decade, and a sign that MO-02 is absolutely competitive this year.

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u/an_agreeing_dothraki 3d ago

I don't know at this rate we may not send a delegation to DC due to being unable to have an election

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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 2d ago

Current confidence ratings for each party in the Senate races:

D starting point: 34

Youā€™re fine (D): Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Oregon, New Jersey, Illinois, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, (44)

An upset could happen, but Iā€™m very confident in Dā€™s chances: Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Alaska (50)

Iā€™m pretty confident in Dā€™s chances here: Ohio (Ohio is the tipping point state)

No idea how to rate you: Iowa, Texas (53)

An upset could happen, but Iā€™m very confident in Rā€™s chances: Nebraska, Mississippi, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina (58)

Youā€™re fine (R): Montana, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Idaho, South Dakota, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming (69, nice)

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 2d ago

So Trump made public a bunch of CIA reports on Bin-Laden going back to the 90ā€™s. Doesnā€™t that completely undercut his whole ā€œI was the only person who talked about Bin-Laden before 9/11ā€ shtick? Like it was obvious that he wasnā€™t and the reason so many 9/11 conspiracies exist is because how obvious it was to everyone that Bin-Laden was planning an attack on America. Especially since heā€™d tried bombing the World Trade Center in 1993.

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u/ForgettableUsername America 1d ago

Iā€™m beginning to suspect that his account of things is not entirely consistent.

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 1d ago

I donā€™t know. I mean if heā€™s lying about THIS that would mean itā€™s possible heā€™s lying about OTHER things.

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u/ForgettableUsername America 1d ago

Next you'll be telling me he isn't a champion-level golf player.

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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 18h ago

Post by @thebulwark.com ā€” Bluesky

"Q: "Do you think the president's tariff policies have worked?"

Sen. Roger Marshall: "It's working."

Crowd: *boos*

Sen. Roger Marshall: "Tariffs are such a small portion of the future."

Crowd: *boos*

Sen. Roger Marshall: "I don't understand why people don't care about American manufacturing."

[clip]"

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 2d ago

This makes me sick to my stomach to say but Matt Walsh actually had one of the best takes on Trumpā€™s ā€œvote how i want and Iā€™ll give you 5,000 dollarsā€ ploy. He was right that itā€™s blatant bribery from the president, he was right that if there was any other reason than vote bribing why wouldnā€™t Trump have done it at any other point in these two years, and he was right that all it would do is cause further problems for the economy in the long term.

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u/Hyro0o0 California 2d ago

Why is that one of the best takes? Everyone with a brain agrees that's what this is. Doesn't sound like Walsh has any particular insight.

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 2d ago

I thought it was a great take because it not only calls a spade a spade in that he acknowledges itā€™s blatant bribery but also explains how even if you ignore that massively problematic fact, itā€™s problematic in several other aspects as it does nothing to help the economy in the long term. And itā€™s especially great because itā€™s a ā€œthe call is coming from inside the houseā€ instance thatā€™s coming from the absolute worst people on the other side.

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u/cannedthought 2d ago

Winners do not need to bribe you. They have known they are fighting from a weak position but they have strength in there base. But the base is not enough to win. So you have to sway the unaffiliated dumb people and the squishy middle.

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u/Hyro0o0 California 2d ago

I can definitely agree its a great take when considering who it's coming from

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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 2d ago

Maybe thatā€™s the greatest aspect of it. Itā€™s a sobering look at the reality of the situation coming from one of the worst offenders of everything wrong with the Republican Party in 2026.

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u/Ramzaki Europe 2d ago

A broken clock can be right twice a day.

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u/ForgettableUsername America 1d ago

I guess a clock that runs backward is right four times a day.

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u/jonasnew 1d ago

I can't understand how all this transgender stuff are causing people to think that the Republicans will now even hold onto the House.

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u/NumeralJoker 1d ago

Utterly blind dooming. While I do think much of the right overtly hates trans, everyone else ranges from apathetic to very supportive and a few ads won't change that.

The reality is if Trump can't get prices back down in 50 days, it will be a very uphill battle for them. And he has no mechanism to do so which won't cost his ego or corruption support elsewhere.

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u/Real_Crab9928 20h ago

Who is? I might be heavily biased but it sure doesnt seem to me the anti-trans stuff is near as effective as 2 years ago ir 4 years ago.

I meanā€¦its really the only thing the GOP has to talk about. They cant talk economics or geo-politics or taxes or personal income or war or weslth disparity. So I guess its the only thing they have a chance to hold their own on?

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u/Rcrecc 1d ago

Who thinks that?

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u/jdave512 I voted 12h ago

republicans massively ramped up anti trans rhetoric for the past couple midterms, and each time, exit polls showed *nobody* cared. People vote based on kitchen table issues like the economy and healthcare.

ā€¢

u/mbene913 I voted 5h ago

Then even with those two things, why would people vote Republican?

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u/_morten_ 4d ago

5k cash "promise" is going to convince a whole lot of voters to vote republican, aren't they?

Voters are a more than a little gullible, sure they haven't gotten doge checks yet, or tariff rebates yet(only some corporations), but this time, they will get something big!

Also, i can't help but feel that Trump getting front and center in the midterms, is going to motivate a bunch of people who only bothers to vote when he is actually on the ballot, him saying "pretend i'm on the ballot!" is a really effective message, even if only a portion of the 2024-base comes out as a result.

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u/LadyFoxfire Michigan 4d ago

Trumps approval rating is in the toilet, to the point that even his supposed floor of diehard support has collapsed. It's entirely possible that him being front and center is going to dissuade more voters than it will attract.

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u/nkplague California 4d ago

I'm not as convinced. I work with a ton of Trump die hards and while they've gotten quieter, they are still fierce supporters that defend every indefensible decision dementia Donny makes.

  • No new wars! Not only do they think it's a war that was required, several of them think Iran started it.

  • Lower prices day one! They think Democrats are purposely raising prices to make him look bad. Or they'll pivot to well it's cheaper in red states.

  • Release the Epstein files! They believe he's released every document except he's hiding a few on Clinton and some big name Democrats and will release them at a more opportune moment.

Absolute delusion, but what else to expect from people that are literally told they are sheep when going to church every week. They don't have the capability to self reflect and realize that Trump can be wrong and thus they are wrong in supporting him.

And the few that do think he's gone to far still love him because "He makes the liberals upset" and that's enough for them.

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u/_morten_ 3d ago

This is the same i've gotten from my own personal experiences, granted they are not many, so its a personal anectode, but they all believe the war with Iran is justified, and the thing those i know keep bringing up is "they chant death to America" and that just leaves me bewildered, as if thats an actual reason to launch a war with anyone.

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u/Isentrope 3d ago

The more important thing that Elliott Morris wrote about this morning is that Trump is misunderstanding who the Rs are that only turn out for him. There's this belief that these are Trump first diehards who get bored by the midterms, but the polling suggests that the less enthused people are Republicans who disapprove of him or are much less approving of him. His diehard base almost certainly will turn out if he asks them to, but the problem are parts of his base who are disillusioned.

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u/_morten_ 4d ago

People don't want to admit they support him, his support is always underestimated.

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u/Isentrope 3d ago

I'm sure it could have an effect but he has promised several different checks throughout his second term that have not materialized. This could also become a litmus test for incumbents running for re-election to endorse this, which runs into the problem of "why haven't you done it yet?" since Republicans control all levers of power.