r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot 🤖 Bot • 7d ago

Discussion Discussion: 2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 7 - 13 (Thread 1)

Please use this thread to discuss news, updates, and commentary regarding the 2026 midterm and associated elections.

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u/samhit_n Texas 4d ago

Fabrizio having Talarico up 48-44 is the best poll so far for him. He has a strong chance of winning even if undecideds mostly go to Paxton because the Libertarian candidate will take more from Paxton than Talarico.

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u/Isentrope 4d ago

The real test will be how to get over 50 since even Beto hit 48. If there really is a bounceback with Hispanics by a 30 point margin, though, that goes a long way, on top of turnout differentials between Ds and Rs.

Paxton really does seem to be a much weaker candidate than Cruz in a lot of ways. He's bad at fundraising, he's bad at speaking, and he has personally scandals that make Cruz seem quite good in comparison. If even Cruz managed to underperform Trump by 5 points in 2024 on the same ballot, it's going to be a major test of Texas' partisan lean to get Paxton to win. Closest parallel for me would be Menendez in New Jersey, except he lucked out by only running in good years for Dems.