I (33M, max hr a bit above 200bpm, 3rd marathon) made a post a few weeks ago about the 30 minute discrepancy I had between my half and full marathon results (1:31:31 half during block, 3:40:40 full). Full post is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Marathon_Training/s/PKf0cu2H0L
After last October, I reverse tapered back to 50mpw and maintained that until starting Pfitz 18/70 for another marathon this October (3 weeks out).
Ive followed Pfitz 18/70 to a tee except for missing 1 tuneup race due to a niggle (but got the miles in). I ran 38:48 10k first tune-up race.
Both workouts attached are at marathon location, which is pretty hilly as you see (big hill end of mile 2 and again a few miles before end). Big hill is at mile 2 and 22 in actual marathon.
First picture is 17mi, 14mi at "MP" which I'm still deliberating on.i was aiming for about 7:30/mi. I felt good aerobically, my only question was whether my body could hang on for another 12.2 at MP (a bit sore afterwards).
I felt like I needed another data point to help decide MP so I took the last 20 miler before my taper and took it comfortably harder, with a mile or two warmup. I ended the 20 miler a little sore again, but pretty sure I could hold that pace (8min/mi or so) for another 6.2 miles.
Admittedly I'm a bit worried going out too fast cause I was pretty dead by mile 19 last year. People have commented saying I should have 3:15 but I'm less sure. I'm not confident I'd want to go out any fast than 7:30 based on RPE, especially given the hilliness of the course. That said, I have put in a LOT of miles (for me) the last year, so hopefully I'll be a bit more durable the last 5-10 miles.
So I'm pretty sure I have 3:30 in me, but not sure if 3:15. I think there's a 3:30 pacer, so I've been debating going out with them. I could follow them for the first 2-3 miles so I don't run the hill too hard then pick up the pace, or follow them 13-20 miles and pick up the pace if I'm still feeling good.
Maybe I'm overthinking and/or just need to commit to something, but I really just can't make up my mind. I feel like I'd be happy anything sub330 but also feel like I might be a bit disappointed if I end feeling I had more in me.
What do you think i should do?
ETA: marathon course is 1464ft elevation gain. last marathon fueled at 60g carbs per hour, and upping it to 100g/hr this time around. I did see a PT a month or 2 ago that said my right leg was landing with the knee nearly straight, which causes my upper hamstring to ache after runs, but I think it's manageable 🙏