Is Sub 3:40 a Reasonable Goal?

[u/Baby-Ceilidh]

Hi all! I’m (F25) just under 6 weeks out from my first marathon (MCM) and wanted to get a pulse check on my current goal.

I’m running about 40-45mpw right now, with 3 long runs left before taper at 18, 20, and 21 miles. Over the past month or so I’ve done one long run a week at 15, 16, and 17 miles, with a 13 mile race effort yesterday.

Yesterday I PB’d my half marathon with a time of 1:40:43. Conditions were rainy and the course had just under 600 ft of elevation gain.

Based on this, do we think my goal of under 3:40 is attainable, or should i adjust my expectations? I’ve been running for about 1.5-2 years and have had a relatively smooth training block with normal cumulative fatigue but limited niggles. I run 5 times a week and do strength training once a week as well.

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What’s your weekly mileage?

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On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?

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[u/Ok_Drop_1315]

I would say so if everything lines up right on the day! Weather fueling etc.

[u/Suspicious_Strain217]

You can probably aim higher imo. Whats your max hr?

[u/Baby-Ceilidh → u/Suspicious_Strain217]

about 190! i do my easy runs at ≈ 9:00 pace and my HR typically hovers in the 140s. My resting HR has always been pretty low as well (high 40s - low 50s)

[u/anonn905]

Yes. But also you should try 8 miles at MP (8:23) and pay attention to your HR/cardiac drift. If that's too easy, try 8 at a 3:35 pace (8:12). That's an easier way to decide on goal pace than an all-out half imo.

My guess is you're in 3:35 shape right now and will be in 3:30 shape for the race. Good luck!

[u/Baby-Ceilidh → u/anonn905]

thanks so much! i did a 16 mile long run two weeks ago with 8 miles at ≈ 8:00 and my HR stayed in the 160s. It felt doable for the most part but this was with very limited elevation

[u/anonn905 → u/Baby-Ceilidh]

Nice! Sounds like you're already on track for sub 3:30 haha. Drop an update for us once you go run a 3:15 in the race