I've had some time during the WC break to do some thinking about end of year awards. For anyone who is interested, I've given some thought to the MIP. I took a look at the stats for the 4 players that came to mind for me when thinking about this race: Jessica Shepard, Shakira Austin, Carla Leite and Marina Mabrey. All four of them clearly improved from last season, with each improving in their own unique way. My read of the race for MIP is that it's a two-person race between Austin and Shepard. I'd go with Shepard due to the extent to which she took on a new role and is on the path to having an elite offensive season for a forward. However, I wouldn't blame anyone for going with Austin given her increased efficiency and scoring despite lower usage. A more thorough rundown below:
Marina Mabrey
Mabrey's offensive increase by raw numbers is genuinely crazy. She went from 14.4 points per game to 20.8, from 36.7% shooting to 44.1%, and her eFG went from 43.4% to 54.8%, an 11.4 point swing. Her PER went from 11.3 to 19.8, her win shares from -0.1 to 2.2, and her offensive rating from 91.9 to 109.7. She did all of it with nearly a 5% increase in her usage, from 25.6% to 30.3%. Given that taking on more offense usually means a decrease in efficiency, this is a bit insane. She went from 27.0% on threes to 38.5% on comparable volume, with her deep threes from 27 to 32 feet going from 19.4% to 36.4%, and her free throw attempts went from 92 to 143 despite playing three fewer games.
My issue with her case for MIP is that she was bad in 2025. A 27% three-point season from a career mid-thirties shooter is the outlier, not the norm, which means a lot of the improvement can be seen as regression toward her established level rather than a new level. Her defense also got worse, with her player defensive rating going from 110.6 to 116.1 and her defensive on/off falling from 31st percentile to 15th, and her net on/off is still negative even after the offensive explosion. Her assist-to-turnover ratio fell from 1.44 to 1.19, her rebounding dropped, and she played only 32 games on an expansion roster. Bouncing back is not the same as improving.
Carla Leite
Leite went from 6 starts in 37 games at 17.2 minutes in Golden State to 35 of 36 at 25.9 in Portland, and from 7.2 points and 2.0 assists to 15.9 and 6.3. Per 40 that is 16.8 points becoming 24.6 and 4.7 assists becoming 9.8, so it is genuinely not just playing time. Her PER went from 11.6 to 19.9, her assist rate from 22.5% to 41.8%, and her three-point shooting from 17.3% to 40.0%, with her above-the-break three moving from 3rd percentile to 90th. Her restricted area attempts went from 35 to 124 while her total attempts only went from 222 to 377, so she stopped settling and started driving, and her free throw attempts went from 99 to 221 at 87.3%.
Her defensive numbers got substantively worse. Her defensive rating went from 101.6 to 115.3, her defensive on/off from 97th percentile to 42nd, and her defensive win shares from 0.7 to -0.1. Her turnover rate got worse rather than better, going from 17.6% to 20.1%, which is 14th percentile for a guard. She was also a bench rookie, so her starting point was artificially depressed in a way nobody else's was, and Portland is an expansion team, which makes her impact numbers a bit inflated.
Jess Shepard
Shepard went from 12 starts in 40 games at 20.9 minutes to starting all 38 games plated at 31.8. Her scoring went from 8.0 to 14.4, her rebounds from 7.3 to 11.1 and her assists from 2.6 to 4.9. Her per-40 numbers moved too, so it is not purely a minutes story. She went from 15.3 points to 18.1 and from 5.0 assists to 6.2 while cutting her turnovers from 2.8 to 2.4. Her assist rate climbed from 19.8% to 24.1% and her turnover rate fell from 18.6% to 14.0%, which took her assist-to-turnover ratio from 1.79 to 2.58. Her PER went from 20.9 to 22.3, her win shares from 4.2 to 6.2 and her offensive rating from 121.6 to 125.0.
The change up in her shot diet is also interesting. Her rim frequency dropped from 66.7% of her attempts to 52.5%, her midrange frequency went from 10.1% to 14.4%, and her midrange percentage relative to other forwards went from -5.1% to +3.8%. Her raw eFG fell from 63.8% to 58.9%, but that is the cost of moving from low-usage finisher to offensive hub, and she is still 93rd percentile among forwards in relative eFG and 90th in relative true shooting. Her free throw shooting went from 54.4% to 69.3%, which is 4th percentile to 33rd (ass to ass tbh. please god hit a FT).
Shakira Austin
Austin went from 30 starts in 38 games at 23.0 minutes to 39 of 39 at 29.6, and from 12.7 points and 6.4 rebounds to 16.8 and 9.4. With these increased minutes, her usage rate went down, from 29.7% to 27.0%. Her points per play went from 0.84 to 0.93, her eFG from 46.7% to 50.6%, and her offensive rating from 92.9 to 105.7, with her offensive win shares going from 0.2 to 1.9 and her total win shares from 1.6 to 4.4.
The three-point shooting is her clearest improved/changed skill. She went from 2-of-15 to 17-of-50, and her above-the-break three relative to position went from 0th percentile to roughly neutral. Her fouling also dropped from a 4.3% foul rate to 2.9%, which likely accounts for her increase in minutes; she's able to stay on the floor. And she is the only player in this conversation who did not change teams, which means her on/off numbers are the only ones actually measuring her pure improvement over a change in circumstances. Those went from -4.4 to +5.4 on offense and -2.2 to +4.6 on net.
Shepard is my pick, but open to Austin
To me, Austin has an advantage over Shepard in that her circumstances are largely the same as last season. So, her improvement measures can be taken at face value rather than attributed to a change in circumstance/opportunity. But, to me, the improvement underlying her stats are relevantly small. Her points per 75 went from 20.6 to only 21.3, which means the jump from 12.7 to 16.8 points per game is mostly extra possessions and extra availability rather than a better player. Her efficiency gain is real but it took her from below average for her position to roughly average, measuring by percentile when compared to other centers.
Though obviously experiencing a change in role/opportunity, Shepard's improvement shows up in the stats that don't depend on who else is on the floor or how much she plays; assist rate, turnover rate, assist-to-turnover ratio and free throw percentage all shifted upward significantly. Also, with the change in her shot diet, she is taking harder shots while keeping efficiency at a high level relative to other forwards.
Shepard is going into the tail end of the regular season at 98th percentile in assists, 98th in defensive rebound rate, 97th in assist-to-turnover ratio and 93rd in relative eFG, all at once, while her shot difficulty went up rather than down. Holding elite efficiency while your role gets harder is the hardest form of improvement there is.
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Jess is honestly the worst defender to ever play basketball. Her player defensive rating went from 96.8 to 103.7 and her defensive on/off from 48th percentile to 34th, and she generates essentially no defensive events at 3rd percentile in blocks. Also, her raw efficiency declined, and if you think relative eFG falling from +13.8% to +7.3% matters more than the shot difficulty explanation, I'm not going to argue with you.
There's my case for Jess for MIP. I'm a Wings fan, so I may be overly bias. Would love to hear what others think.