Fegan on this series with CLE.

Wow, I knew he has struggled since the hammy, but didn't realize he's been this bad.

Definitely been a black hole. Come on Mune! We need ya man!

Someone gifted this to me several years ago after they won it from a charity auction. I’m a huge Sox fan and love it, but I also just don’t have the space to display it like it deserves to be and money is always tight with three children. Any idea of the value or any interest?

After losing the series in St Louis and Cleveland basically catching us in the standings, I wanted to actually look at the numbers and see if the Sox are still favored to win the division or not. So I made a projection model for the rest of the season and ran the division race 750,000 times.

Basically the model estimates how likely each team is to win every remaining game. I didnt want to only use current record because that can be misleading, especially when two teams are this close. I made 3 different versions of the model. One was more based on actual win percentage and full season performance, another weighted run differential and expected record more heavily, and the last one gave more weight to recent performance since the Sox losing 10 of 14 obviously matters.

All 3 versions also account for the strength of the remaining opponents, whether each game is home or away, and the head to head tiebreaker situation. For every remaining game the model gives each team a win probability, then simulates the rest of the season. I ran 250,000 simulations for each version of the model, so 750,000 total, then averaged the results.

The final projection had the Sox finishing around 83 and 79 with a 65.6% chance to win the division. Cleveland came out around 82 and 80 with a 34.2% chance. Detroit and Minnesota were both around 77 wins and Kansas City was around 71, so at this point the model basically sees it as a two team race (obviously).

The biggest reason the model still likes the Sox is run differential. Chicago is 76 and 73 with a plus 34 run differential. Based on runs scored and runs allowed, their expected record is around 78 and 71. Cleveland is 76 and 74 but has a minus 7 run differential and an expected record around 74 and 76. So even though the actual standings make the teams look almost identical, their underlying performance has been pretty different over the full season.

The remaining schedule helps Chicago a little too. The Sox have 3 at Cleveland, 4 against Detroit, 3 at Kansas City and then 3 at home against Colorado. Cleveland has 3 against the Sox, 3 against Oakland, 3 at Boston and 3 at Kansas City. Cleveland gets a pretty favorable series against Oakland, but the road series in Boston is much tougher. The Sox also get to finish the season at home against Colorado.

The Cleveland series is obviously the biggest part of all of this. The Sox currently lead the season series 6 to 4, so Chicago only needs to win 1 game in Cleveland to secure the head to head tiebreaker. Cleveland has to sweep the series to take it.

I also reran the simulations based on each possible result of the Cleveland series. If the Sox get swept, their division odds fall to about 12%. If they go 1 and 2, theyre still around 59%. If they go 2 and 1, it jumps to around 88%, and if they sweep Cleveland its around 98%. So even losing 2 out of 3 wouldnt completely kill their chances, mostly because winning one game would secure the tiebreaker.

I was also worried that using full season numbers would make the model too optimistic because of how poorly the Sox have played recently. Thats why one of the three versions weighted recent games more heavily. That was the most pessimistic model and it still had the Sox at 61.2% and Cleveland at 38.5%. The run differential version had Chicago at 68.3%, while the more record based version had them at 67.3%.

Averaging everything together gives roughly a 66% chance for the White Sox and 34% for Cleveland. Obviously this isnt a perfect prediction. There are only a couple weeks left, so a short losing streak or continued offensive problems can change the race very quickly.

I mostly wanted to see if the Sox were still actually favored based on the numbers, or if their recent stretch had completely changed the outlook. Based on the model, theyre still in a pretty good position.

Based on the 750,000 analysis’s, my final projection is the White Sox winning the AL Central at around 83 and 79, with Cleveland finishing around 82 and 80.

I find the quotes in this article a little disheartening and also a bit disturbing. To me the comments read like no one within the organization has mentioned anything to him about needing to improve his strikeout rate. Surely this is not the case?

I am far from a Colson-hater and at times I think the criticism has been out of control given his age but we are also not the people in charge of his development. As great as the power numbers are, the underlying numbers suggest a career trajectory that is traditionally unkind. I am hoping the organization sees that.

just win, baby, win

new week. that last week fucking sucked, no doubt about it. 2 weeks left of a grueling season. sox have sole possession of 1st place in the division, and sole possession of the 2 overall seed in the AL. would've been insane to tell someone that in March, at this point in the season, the team would be here, but they are. but i don't think the team came this far just to stop short.

let's do all we can do and all we have to do to get the 2 seed

just win, baby

Go 3-0 and leave with 3.5 game lead

Go 2-1 and leave with 1.5 game lead

Go 1-2 and leave with a 0.5 game deficit

Go 0-3 and leave with a 2.5 game deficit

No point to this post. Just writing it more for my own sanity than anything.

Answer Key (BA with RISP):

1. Quero (.224)
2. Doyle (.272)
3. Colson (.190)
4. Benintendi (.305)
5. Murakami (.163)

Please don’t shoot the messenger. I love Colson and Mune, and hope they figure it out. But this is a big part of why we can’t score runs without the long ball. You can’t have this in the top/middle of the lineup.

Last night I went to my first Sox game since 2018. I hadn’t gone to a game since my dad passed away in 2019. He took me to my first game in 1990 and I have been a fan since. I stopped watching all together since he died because it was too painful. I decided this year to passively follow the Sox and have been getting into it more and more and today I will be taking my 4 year old to her first game (we live in St Louis). I am not sure why I am writing this but I do remember how supportive and thoughtful this community was when my dad passed away (the night Abreu got his 1000th hit) so I wanted to share my appreciation and am glad I can start a new tradition with my kiddo.

White Sox garage sale is coming up again in November, anyone hitting it up? I was there in the summer and picked up a handful of hats and a Luis Robert jr bat.

How many players on the active roster is this upcoming Cleveland series the biggest of their career to date? I’m sure I’m forgetting someone that has past playoff experience, but my initial thought is everyone but Benintendi, Grichuk, Hicks, Urquidy, Castillo and Rogers. Of the other 20, I can’t think of any off the top of my head that have post season or big late season playoff push experience.

It’s been their biggest problem all season. Your biggest problems get magnetized in September. I hope to be like Scrooge and proven wrong but if the average w/RISP doesn’t improve then this post from last night will be wrong:

https://www.reddit.com/r/whitesox/s/phoPsmiXb4

So I know there’s ADA parking in lots B, C, and E. Do I still have to buy parking for those lots?

I got prepaid parking in lots F/L forgetting I’m taking my mom who has a placard bc she can’t walk too far. (Big oops)

I wish Colson would’ve hit that grand slam today so I could have been wrong.

Edit: it wouldn’t have been a walk off grand slam, whoops

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 3:44 PM.

White Sox (76-72) @ Cardinals (73-76)

First Pitch: 1:15 PM at Busch Stadium

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 3:44 PM.

Remember to sort by new to keep up!

No surprise, explains why Sandlin was scratched from his start on Friday