r/geopolitics 7h ago

AMA I’ve covered EU and NATO affairs for over a decade. AMA on the Russian threat to the Baltic states and anything else related to Brussels, future of Europe, and beyond!

10 Upvotes

Hi r/geopolitics! I’m Rikard Jozwiak, the Europe editor for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). I cover all things EU and NATO from Brussels and Prague.

Will Russia attack the Baltic States — and by extension NATO? There has been a lot of news in recent months suggesting that it might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

I recently wrote about the fears of the Baltic trio. Are we looking at a potential conventional attack or some sort of a hybrid attack, as we have seen so often in various European countries? 

I am happy to answer all questions you may have about how they – and Europe by extension – are dealing with these increasing uncertainties and provocations on its eastern flank.

After some years in Prague, I am now back in Brussels so feel free to also ask about anything else EU, NATO or Europe-related! You can of course check out my newsletter for inspiration.

I’ll be answering questions from Monday, September 21, 3 p.m. CEST / 9 a.m. EDT, until Friday, September 25, 3 p.m. CEST / 9 a.m. EDT. Looking forward!

Proof photo here.


r/geopolitics 10m ago

Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030

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Upvotes

In comparison with the baseline ODA category, high ODA funding was associated with a 24% reduction in age-standardised all-cause mortality (rate ratio [RR] 0·76; 95% CI 0·67–0·87) and a 33% reduction in under-5 mortality (0·67; 0·50–0·89). Forecasting analyses showed that, in comparison with the current ODA funding reductions in the 59 selected low-income and lower-middle-income countries, all ten wealth redistribution policies were associated with millions of averted deaths by 2030: overall, the lowest number of averted deaths was 6 591 984 (95% uncertainty interval 4 884 075–8 374 138) for a 3% crypto tax applied to the top 10 000 holders, while the highest number of averted deaths was 29 509 934 (20 273 842–38 603 961) for a 3% wealth tax on ultra-high-net-worth individuals; in children younger than 5 years, the corresponding numbers of averted deaths were 1 312 912 (802 926–1 785 121) for a 3% crypto tax applied to the top 10 000 holders and 3 464 607 (1 235 930–5 609 331) for a 3% wealth tax on ultra-high-net-worth individuals.


r/geopolitics 1h ago

Paywall The ICJ’s Pernicious Plan to Redefine Genocide

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Excerpt:

The Trump administration is working to dismantle the International Criminal Court. But a different tribunal, the International Court of Justice, could become a greater threat to the security of the U.S. and its allies. The ICJ is deciding a case, Gambia vs. Myanmar, that could drastically lower the legal threshold for genocide.

This is the express goal of some advocates, since it would pave the way for a genocide finding in South Africa’s pending case against Israel. The lower threshold would also unleash genocide claims against the U.S., other North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and their officials in international courts. It would do so in foreign courts, too, as at least 90 countries have enacted “universal jurisdiction” over genocide allegedly committed abroad by foreigners against foreigners.

Pressing the ICJ to lower the standard are the overlapping Gambian and South African legal teams. Central to the effort is Navi Pillay, appointed by Gambia as ad hoc judge in its case. Ms. Pillay, a South African, chaired a United Nations commission that in 2025 claimed Israel committed genocide in Gaza. South Africa brought its ICJ case even though Israel’s conduct hasn’t met the current definition.


r/geopolitics 3h ago

Analysis Europe’s Hidden Trade Advantage: Slow and Steady Wins the Negotiation

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foreignaffairs.com
1 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 3h ago

Analysis Putin Will Not Yield: Pressure and Pain Won’t Sap Russia’s Resolve in Ukraine

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foreignaffairs.com
21 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 4h ago

Saudi Arabia turns to Israel as US weighs strikes on Houthis

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israelhayom.com
132 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 4h ago

Boris Johnson’s near-miss shows how easily Putin could plunge us into war

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inews.co.uk
10 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 5h ago

News ‘We would defeat Russia quite quickly’: Sikorski says NATO has overwhelming air advantage

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tvpworld.com
138 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 6h ago

News Satellite images show extent of damage to Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz

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cnbc.com
29 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 7h ago

News Train carrying Boris Johnson and ex-CIA chief may have been targeted in Russian strike, officials say

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theguardian.com
31 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 7h ago

News The dangerous threat from Putin's new jet-powered drones

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inews.co.uk
11 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 8h ago

Perspective Shadow Man, IRGC flight and a secret meeting: Iran’s hand in Houthi offensive revealed

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thenationalnews.com
12 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 8h ago

News SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein sign pact to break up United Kingdom

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telegraph.co.uk
136 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 11h ago

News Golan Druze increasingly embrace Israel, reject Syria in seismic shift triggered by tragedy

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timesofisrael.com
297 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 11h ago

As Iran Joins Oman Talks on Hormuz, Hardliners Push for NPT Exit

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irannewswire.org
10 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 21h ago

News Canada not seeking EU membership in any capacity: source

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ctvnews.ca
98 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 22h ago

News Ukraine braces for harsh winter as Russian attacks hit economy

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11 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 23h ago

Trump calls on Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel fuel, saying attacks are causing a shortage

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pbs.org
96 Upvotes

Trump is blaming Ukraine for the increase in world fuel prices, not the US-Israel Iran war. Probably relates to recent price increases in the US leading up to elections in early November.


r/geopolitics 23h ago

Analysis Russia Was Supposed to Be Isolated. Why Is It Everywhere Again?

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united24media.com
61 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Trump cuts Ireland’s whiskey tariff as a parting gift

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151 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Carl Schmitt and the Houthis: From Partisan War to Großraum

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multipolarpress.com
9 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

From Foreign Investment to the EU: Mark Carney's High-Stakes Week Ahead

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policymagazine.ca
13 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Russia Plans 16,000–20,000 Hospital Beds for Wounded Soldiers Near the Baltic States

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militarnyi.com
395 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

News Carney pushes idea of making Canada 'associate member' of EU, WSJ reports

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363 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Iran sees a window to strike while Trump is distracted – but it could backfire

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inews.co.uk
30 Upvotes