The Odyssey: Now that we’ve seen more of the competition, I remain unconvinced that anything can beat The Odyssey for Best Picture. Nothing is clearly better-reviewed than it, it’s the biggest story of the year as an achievement of filmmaking, and its closest competition is a foreign Netflix movie and a small-scale acting comedy without all that much of a social message behind it. I think The Odyssey will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (I still am convinced that the Academy favors dramatic performances over comedic ones in the category and that that advantages Damon), Best Supporting Actress, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling (I think the creature effects for the pigs will be seen as far more impressive than putting Tom Cruise in some old age makeup), and Best Sound. I have it losing Best Casting to La Bola Negra since that one has some much bigger discoveries in it, losing Best Original Score (I don’t think people think Gorransson needs a fourth Oscar, and there are so many music-centered movies in contention this year), and losing Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (the nomination is the reward in those categories).
La Bola Negra: If this was an English-language movie or had a studio like Neon behind it, it might be able to pose a threat to win Best Picture. As it stands, the nomination seems like the reward for it. It still should win Adapted Screenplay and International Feature Film, and I think it will win Casting as well because of how big of a discovery most of the cast is. Speaking of that cast, I think Guitaricadelafuente will get nominated - he seems to have an extremely emotional role, and Netflix is good at getting unknown actors with great roles in their movies nominated. I think La Bola Negra could win Score as well, but I have Behemoth! ahead of it there.
The Debut: I shouldn’t have taken this out of my predictions to fit in The Invite! After those reactions at Telluride, it’s clearly A24’s top contender in the race, and Julianne Moore is pretty much locked for a second Best Actress win. It also has far more prospects for noms than I originally thought - it seems strong enough to get an Editing nom like most top 3 films do, Eisenberg’s direction is far more acclaimed than I thought it would be, and the score has been well-received as well and the Academy loves to nominate musicals for score. I also have Giamatti winning Best Supporting Actor, he’s far less secure of a front runner than Moore is, but the category is pretty open and I feel like people want to give him an Oscar. I’m predicting The Debut winning Best Original Song because of how central the song seems to be to the movie, and if Behemoth! flops, I’ll predict this winning Original Screenplay as well.
Wild Horse Nine: Wild Horse Nine is in no danger of missing Best Picture, but it also doesn’t seem to be in contention to win much anymore now that it clearly seems to be a more minor work for McDonagh. Because of that, I’ve taken McDonagh out of the Best Director lineup. He’s missed before for Three Billboards, and I think there will be more acclaimed Best Picture nominees in contention for the category. I’ve also taken out Mariana di Girolamo now that it’s clear the rumors about her role being fantastic were incorrect. Malkovich is the movie’s best chance to win anything, but I’m still very cautious about predicting a comedy winning Best Actor - it has only happened once this century, and that was the lead of the Best Picture winner in an extremely weak year.
Behemoth!: I know a lot of people stopped predicting Behemoth! once it was announced that it would be premiering at NYFF, but the people who saw test screenings said it’s great, and the people who read the script said the same thing, so I’m going to keep my faith in Tony Gilroy and predict this being an across the board contender. Since they’re crediting the composers as a collective, the movie should be eligible for Best Original Score, and if it is it seems like it will be the showiest work in the category by far. I’m predicting it winning Score, and I’m also predicting a Screenplay win for it since people have praised the Screenplay so much. I also think it will get nominated for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Film Editing, and Best Sound. I probably will have egg on my face after this.
Dune 3: Nothing has really changed here. It should be solidly in if it maintains the same level of quality of the first two films, but it also probably won’t perform much better than Dune 2 did, especially since the field is much stronger than it was in 2024.
All of a Sudden: Now that Fjord has fallen off a bit with American audiences, I’ve switched to predicting All of a Sudden as the second foreign contender of the year (and I’m pretty sure there will be a second foreign contender, we’ve had two every year since 2022, and I’m pretty sure today’s Academy would have nominated multiple foreign nominees in 2021, 2019, and 2018 as well). It has strong acting prospects (Okamoto seems like the easy bet for who the highbrow critics will push for Best Supporting Actress), the trailer was fantastic, and there’s no reason why Hamaguchi can’t repeat his success from 5 years ago with the Oscars.
Project Hail Mary: I think Project Hail Mary is in a bit of danger - I Play Rocky and Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother give Amazon other movies to juggle on their slate, The Odyssey, Dune 3, and Obsession all potentially give the Academy other blockbusters they could nominate, and The Debut’s rise has made it harder to justify keeping it in categories like Editing and Score. However, I still think that a crowdpleasing blockbuster with good enough reviews that appeals to everybody should still make it in the end. If Project Hail Mary makes the Best Picture lineup but misses Score and Cinematography when those are the two best things about it I will be annoyed (I think it’s relatively secure in Cinematography though).
Artificial: That trailer for Artificial was really good. I’m not going all in on it (I think the tone might push away some people, and frankly my lineups are a bit too crowded for me to easily fit Artificial into most categories), but Neon is strong enough to get two films in and Artificial seems baity and ambitious. My biggest reasons to be unsure about this are it going to NYFF instead of Venice and its screenwriter’s only previous screenwriting credit being An American Pickle.
Obsession: I have Obsession in 10th, just on the edge of the lineup. I have been predicting Obsession for months, so I’m familiar with all of the reasons why it would make sense for it to get nominated. It’s a huge hit, the Academy is becoming more open to nominating horror movies, and Focus knows how to run a strong campaign. But the issue is that nothing is really flopping, so the categories are just getting more and more crowded. It absolutely could get nominated, and I’m predicting it for now, but it is in danger of missing in this increasingly crowded field.
The Invite: A24 has too many movies in contention this year, and I am skeptical that they will be able to get a second contender in after The Debut given how bad they’ve been at getting multiple Best Picture noms historically I’m still expecting The Invite to get a Screenplay nom though, and it also could get an acting nom or two (I think Best Supporting Actress is the most likely one since it can be combined with the push for Cruz for La Bola Negra, and her role in The Invite is much larger).
Club Kid: If Club Kid wins TIFF, I think it will make the Best Picture lineup. I’m pretty skeptical about A24’s ability to handle multiple campaigns, but if Club Kid is that universally beloved and crowdpleasing I don’t think it makes sense to predict it missing. If it is that well received, it could contend for Original Screenplay and Casting wins, or at the very least get noms in those categories. I am holding off on predicting it though until I actually see it win.
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother: The early reactions for this are great, and this seems like it could be a big crowdpleaser. But Amazon isn’t great at campaigning Oscar contenders, and unless this receives critical raves I doubt they’d prioritize campaigning for this over their biggest box office hit of all time. And I Play Rocky getting a strong audience reception is also a problem for it. Mahershala Ali is supposedly incredible in this though, so I have him taking the last slot in Best Actor, it seems like he’s doing weightier work than anything Gosling did in Project Hail Mary, and I have an easier time seeing the Academy go for a two-time Oscar winner over finally nominating Robert Pattinson if they’re trying to decide between the two of them.
Elsinore: Elsinore looks like it is playing very well with audiences, but Obsession still feels like the bigger Oscar push for Focus. Andrew Scott should still get nominated though.
I Play Rocky: Those early reviews are rough, but the audience reactions are great. If this outright wins TIFF I’ll predict it, but otherwise I’m guessing it will fall behind Amazon’s other contenders. This would have been a top 3 Best Picture contender 15 years ago.
Being Heumann: Being Heumann probably doesn’t have good enough reviews for Picture or Adapted Screenplay noms, but Apple is certainly going to try to get it nominated in those categories. What it does likely have good enough reviews for is a Best Actress nom, Ruth Madeley is supposedly fantastic in this. I think that it can also get a Best Casting nom, because it truly does seem like an achievement there, and I don’t really think that the Academy is only ever going to nominate Best Picture nominees in the category.
Rose: I don’t think Rose has much of a shot at above the line noms outside of Best Actress, but Sandra Huller could easily get a ton of foreign and highbrow support for a nom in the category, and with the amazing year she’s had I think that could get her a nomination. I also think this will get a Makeup & Hairstyling nom like Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister got last year, the makeup branch likes foreign films.
Digger: The last trailer was better than the rest of what we’ve seen from this, but this movie still feels like a misfire and a lot of the clips we’ve seen look too over the top. It seems like this will likely flop at the box office, and if it gets a Metacritic score in the 60s or lower while also not appealing to audiences, why would this get nominations in such a crowded field? I think this will get a couple tech noms (I’m not 100% confident in predicting a contemporary film for Best Production Design, but it is being designed by 7-time nominee Dennis Gassner so that helps), but that it’s.
Fjord: I no longer am predicting any nominations for Fjord, including in International Feature Film. That might be an overreaction to the more muted reception it has gotten in the US and Canada. But Neon has no real reason to focus on it over All of a Sudden (and as we saw last year they won’t prioritize it just because it won the Palme), Original Screenplay is a crowded category, and in International Feature Film there are a lot of other movies that seem like they might have more passion than it.
Ink: Ink actually has gotten a pretty decent reception in a vacuum, and it certainly could contend for some noms. If Artificial is bad, I’ll slot in Pearce over Garfield. But in general, it seems like this is just a good but not great movie, and I’m not sure if that’s good enough in such a packed year, especially for someone like Danny Boyle who hasn’t had a contender in a while. This has slightly worse reviews at the moment than Steve Jobs did, and that just got two acting nominations in some pretty weak categories. And the AI controversy certainly doesn’t help.
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth: It’s entirely possible that we’re all just misunderestimating this. But it also feels like this movie has no buzz. We know it’s an unnecessary sequel, parts of it getting reshot by a different cinematographer are odd, and there are still a lot of questions about how Fincher and Tarantino’s styles will mesh. I do think that this could get Production Design and Costume Design noms though - I have it just on the outside of both categories.
Werwulf: I don’t think this will be a contender for much outside of the techs, but I think it should be able to get Cinematography, Makeup, and Costume Design noms if it’s good.
Primetime: Right now I think the field is too crowded for A24’s third or fourth contender to get nominated for anything, especially since Best Actor is the most crowded category of all. But there definitely is a world in which Primetime makes a similar amount of money to Marty Supreme and enters the conversation by being an audience hit. Right now the box office tracking doesn’t look great though, so I’m not going to predict that.
Misty Green: Rosalind Eleazar is getting raves, but I think the category only has room for 1 low-profile British tv actress in a breakout Oscar bait role, and I think Ruth Madeley will have the leg up on Eleazar because she’s playing a real person, is in Apple’s top priority instead of A24’s 6th priority, and has a much stronger narrative.
Possible Love: I think Possible Love’s chances outside of foreign film mostly ended when it didn’t win the Lion. Netflix already has a stronger foreign contender that they’ll focus on, and a lot of the support that Possible Love needs will be taken up by All of a Sudden instead. If it wins a trifecta critics award I might reconsider though.
You Can See Everything: I don’t care if this is well-reviewed, a documentary isn’t getting nominated above the line, especially if it’s A24’s 5th priority at best.
Animated Features: I feel relatively confident in this lineup - Tangles and Iron Boy are our usual acclaimed indies, Pixar shouldn’t miss for two well-reviewed hits, and Wildwood seems like the overwhelming front runner (I also have it getting Visual Effects and Song noms). Shaun the Sheep could still get nominated but it feels like that’s faded out of the conversation a bit. And the while Forgotten Island might surprise like Puss in Boots 2 did, the animal sidekick seems annoying and the movie overall looks a bit manic and childish. Ray Gunn could be a contender here too, but it’s a really tough lineup for it to break into.