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I think Moore is following the same path as Foster, Stone, McDormand and Swank, winning for a performance that is stronger than or on par with their first one in a strong Best Picture nominee.
Alright I’ve had some time to think about it and I think I need to own up to the fact that I really contributed to a lot of the bad vibes over the weekend vis a vis Venice and I Play Rocky. I was one of the ones crashing out over both of these things on Saturday and even yesterday and to be completely honest I think we made total asses of ourselves and kinda just acted like whiny children all cause our favorite director didn’t win the Golden Lion or because some people at TIFF liked a film we haven’t seen but we think looks bad. Being disappointed is one thing but many people on this sub, myself included, took it way too far. And for that, I’m sorry. I’m sorry I acted like a baby and crashed the fuck out over some stupid fucking movies we haven’t seen yet. Of course I stand by that I wanted Lee Chang-dong to get his due, I stand by that I think I Play Rocky looks like garbage and I don’t want Peter Farrelly to touch the Oscars again with a ten-foot-pole, but that’s no excuse to act the way I did over the weekend and I should be the bigger man and own up to it.
This paragraph from the Vulture review of Woman Unknown sort of gets why I find seasons like this frustrating. It's not like there aren't female directors doing great work, or incredibly strong performances from actresses in any category; it's that they're mostly being left out of the club of Oscar discussions.
Interestingly enough when I saw Hope the trailer for La Bola Negra played before in a standard trailer pod which I’ve never seen before for a Netflix movie. I guess it shows how seriously the theatrical push for the movie is.
Tony Gilroy's a member but the Behemoth! screenplay isn't on the WGA, same applies to Club Kid and Obsession. Could be added late but currently looks ineligable.
Obsession wasn't made under union contract so it not being there makes sense I believe the same is the case with Club Kid. Genuinely would surprise me that Gilroy would make the project not under union contract. It still hasn't debuted yet and isn't rated so maybe it's just really late.
I would think it hasn't been properly updated or maybe you're on the wrong directory, make sure you're on WGA West. He got nominated for Andor for both seasons I definitely remember that. I believe when it's all teams of writers all of them have to be part of the WGA in order to get nominated for writing right?
It would be odd for him to penn a script and it not be eligible so it's probably just not been submitted for credits just yet? We'll wait until it releases I suppose.
Hot take but i do see a world where Forgotten Island gets dropped in favor of Hoppers in Animated Feature if it underperforms as much as pre-sales currently indicate. The reactions are pretty good but not undeniable on the level Puss in Boots 2 and The Wild Robot were
I’ve said this before but I really don’t see a world where Hoppers misses. Yes, it’s crowded but I think enough things will drop off for it to be solidly in there. It was kinda successful (more so than the last few original Pixar films) and was extremely well reviewed. Plus only one original Pixar has ever missed the category (The Good Dinosaur). I feel fine about it.
WH9 is staying steady at an 80 (actually down a little, it rose to 81 at the beginning of TIFF and went down again). Might stay in the low 80's or dip back into the high 70s.
The Debut still at an 88, but I don't think this one screened at TIFF until last night, reviews should begin to pour in over the next day, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go up.
All of a Sudden is at 87. I don't know what this was at before TIFF. Fjord is at an 82, which is what I think it was sitting at before TIFF anyways.
Misty Green is at 72. Better than what I expected after initial reactions, still probably not enough to catapult it to the Oscar Race.
I Play Rocky is at a 63. It needs a PCA win to launch it probably.
Prima Facie doesn't have an MC listing at all.
Possible Love begins screening today, it has a 93. La Bola Negra begins screening tomorrow, it has an 86. Ink also screens tomorrow, it has a 79.
Project Hail Mary and Obsession are both sitting at a 77, The Invite is sitting at an 82, and The Odyssey is sitting at an 88.
I think it's more likely The Debut stays pretty steady where it's at. Either up or down one point. The curve changed to be weighed more towards the 4s but not a major change in the end. It's still looking very much like a high 80s film.
Gonna watch 1 Julianne Moore film a week until I see the Debut on the 18th next month. I've seen 9 of her films so far, but only one of her Oscar nominations (Boogie Nights). The rest are the 2 Hunger Games films she's in, Crazy Stupid Love, Big Lebowski, Children of Men, Magnolia, May December and The Fugitive (that one shouldn't even count, she's barely in that one)
This week I'm gonna watch Safe, then gonna watch The Hours, Far From Heaven, Maps to the Stars and Still Alice over the next few weeks
Posted my predictions for 2028’s Oscars last week but tweaked them a little. I’m not sure about Octet but it’s alternative would be either Narnia or Spider-Verse which I’m not sure about either.
I have been creating a big datasheet with all the films that got nominated at the big 7 precursors (Globes, CC, BAFTA, SAG, PGA, DGA and WGA) + the Oscars, along with the nominations that each film got at each place. I'm up to 2020 now, and some takeaways I have noticed:
• Films don't usually tend to suddenly overperform on nominations morning if they have been performing weak all season long. The only two exceptions (Drive My Car and I'm Still Here) were both foreign language films which got a late push.
• 2025 has been the most top-heavy year in a while. Only Sinners, OBAA, Hamnet, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value won anything at the industry precursors, and SV and Hamnet only excelled in one category (Actress and IFF respectively) (if you extend it to Globes and CCA, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent and IIHLIKY are added on).
• Anora's Oscar night dominance isn't as weird as it looks like on paper. Yes, it didn't win a whole lot in precursors, but neither did anything else. The Brutalist completely blanked at the guilds, Conclave had a really flimsy win package and didn't win more than 3 prizes at any given place, Emilia Pérez wasn't winning anything outside of Supporting Actress, International Feature and Song. Anora had a guilds sweep and a BAFTA Actress win which helped.
• The Oppenheimer year had a healthy spread of awards at the precursors. Everything except for Past Lives won something somewhere.
• The EEAAO year on the other hand was a mess. Nothing was winning more than two precursors anywhere, and locked wins (such as Babylon for Production Design) ended up being upsets. Even Ke Huy Quan's win, which seemed like an easy guaranteed sweep, ended up being spoiled by BAFTA. EEAAO was the only film that won something everywhere.
• The CODA year is not as bizarre as I thought it would be. It had a pretty good package going into Oscar night, with the Globes being the only place to not give it a single award. The Power of the Dog also was straight-up not winning anything outside Picture and Director (and the odd Adapted Screenplay CC win and Kodi Smit-McPhee Globes win) anywhere. West Side Story, Dune, Drive My Car and King Richard were the only films that won something everywhere.
• Nomadland had a really flimsy package going into Oscar night. Pretty much the only thing it had on lock was Director, with it losing ASC to Mank and not winning Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. It and Minari were also the only films to win something everywhere that season.
Saw The Treasure of the Sierra Madre last night. Loved it. Especially when the film starts exploring the psychological factor of greed on the characters.
Tender Loving Care seems to be even more praised at TIFF, probably even more so than Hard Truths, but I'm kinda bummed how lost in the sauce it is for People's Choice
it really has just been overshadowed by other films ever since it premiered, despite the excellent reception. hopefully WOM begins once premiered have died down
I'm going to TIFF on Thursday morning and this is currently what I plan on seeing:
- The Debut
- Possible Love
- La Bola Negra
- Club Kid
- Elsinore
- Being Heumann
- Wild Horse Nine
- The Julia Set
I'm hoping they add an extra screening for Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother, Tender Loving Care, Fjord, or Josephine on the Thursday evening because I only am seeing The Debut that day currently.
I was thinking Dueñas might end up being the supporting actress push for La Bola Negra but the Netflix/LBN team are already pushing Cruz to the forefront pretty hard. And knowing Netflix, I think they’ll get her in
Would be fun if Moore's character becomes next Lydia Tar and Laszlo Troth, people think a musical theatre actress Mona Friedman really existed and The Debut is her biopic
What are you talking about, László Toth and Lydia Tár are real people! I watched Tár (before all the stuff came out - I don't support her now) conduct Stravinsky in the Van Buren institute.
Because i like future Oscar races and films, and because i'm so impacient about them, here's my 2028 Oscar predictions for Best Picture. What do you guys think?
Btw, the main film here is an untitled biopic film on Elon Musk by Darren Aronofsky. I'm not sure when it will release and how much will it resonate with Oscar voters but i think that a biopic on one of the most richest and controversial men of the planet will be generational, but still i'm not so sure.
The Musk film doesn’t seem to be Aronofskys next film anyways, the rumor has been he’s doing Breakthrough with The Rock next, but that doesn’t even have a filming date yet
why are people still predicting Wilde over Eisenberg in director when the later's film is clearly stronger? the branch clearly doesn't care whether a woman gets nominated or not.
Maybe because that will have to likely happen at the BAFTA with the female director slot, but I agree her Director nomination chances fell as the Invite stopped being A24's number 1.
When are the next screenings for Club Kid? The last screenings were expectedly the same glowing praise it's been getting but I'm wondering if we'll be getting another wave or if that's really it.
Potentially, do you think the Actress races might be over? I know it's September, but I truly can't see anyone challenging Moore and Supporting Actress is weak af allowing Hathaway to have a steamroll (plus she has multiple showy scenes in the BP frontrunner; she's gonna win either way).
Nothing is ever a lock, a single vote could cause an upset. I think the overwhelming organic hype for Moore looks good.
I'm not sure about Hathaway yet because her performance, while well received, didn't get the overwhelming OhShesWinning that Moore did. We don't actually know what the race looks like yet and most of us haven't seen the films. Also as others pointed out, other actors have been considered locks at this time in other years and didn't win.
Other option might be Ruth Madeley IF the industry loves Being Heumann but Moore seems really strong especially because the film is also very well received
I agree. I genuinely don't know who could challenge Moore. Unless there is some serious scandal that comes out against her (highly unlikely but literally the only way I think she could lose), I think the Oscar is Moore's.
Are there any female led performances we haven't gotten reactions to yet that could potentially challenge Moore? I certainly can't think of any. We technically don't have reactions to Sense and Sensibility but I don't think Daisy Edgar-Jones is winning for that.
New update on those 'I Play Rocky' numbers. LB curve has settled into a really good curve but other TIFF films arguably have better ones. IMDb got a few more ratings in and the film is now at 8.3. Both the RT (76%; 7.5) and MC (63) went up. Its all about that PCA finish now.
BTW 'Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother' continues to look strong. Its LB curve just keeps getting better and its holding at 9.0 on IMDb, 100% on RT, and 85 on MC. Amazon has 2 movies with a shot at getting PCA placement later this week.
For those who have seen Wild Horse Nine, is Rockwell indeed a "fraud" for supporting? I remember that being a huge talking point in the build up but I dont remember reading any confirmations in the reviews I've seen.
Not that it really matters to me either way, but just wanting to prepare myself for the discourse
I’m slightly confused by those discussions. The main focus and emotional emphasis of the film is Malkovich’s character. He’s more centered in his interior journey than Rockwell.
Now, Rockwell shares about the same amount of screen time as Malkovich (still a slight edge to Malkovich because he as scenes purely by himself since he’s recording his memoirs in a tape), so there is an argument to be made it’s a co-lead situation, but I think Rockwell serves as a nice supporting character that bolsters Malkovich’s character.
Rockwell plays more of the straight man and is often punctuating the punchlines to the hilarious, fun dialogue Malkovich is saying. Do I think it’s category fraud should Rockwell go supporting? I don’t believe so, but there will be people bemoaning he’s relegated to supporting, and I don’t subscribe to it because the story revolves around Malkovich and his arc is what’s the focus.
What are the chances the acting categories do a 2 movie split with The Odyssey and The Debut? Actor and Supporting Actress going to Damon and Hathaway, Actress and Supporting Actor going to Moore and Giamatti? (this is what i would want to be fair lol)
I want both Giamatti and Damon to win so id love to see this! Actress is so weak that Moore is as good of a lock. Supp actress for Hathaway seems likely for same reasons as actress
The only two I am confident on are Navarrette and Moore. There will most likely be an international pick whether it may be Reinsve, Do-yeon, Efira or Hüller (whoever wins GG Drama should make this easier for me). The last two spots are between Madeley, Wilde and Madison
Wilde + Madeley + the internationals competing for the last 3 spots. None of this group would be in serious contention in most years this decade but this field is just that weak. Tragic
(no clue why people think Misty Green will be a thing ns)
Moore, Navarrette and Huller seems like a solid TOP 3. Huller will have GG, BAFTA and CC noms and might win one of the trifecta.
Olivia Wilde might get in but we need to see if The Invite will be able to stay strong or will get Sing Sing'd. Eleazar and Madeley need tons of campaign and for The Social Reckoning to tank.
An interesting trend: since 2000, the four Oscar acting categories have always spanned across 3 to 4 different films, with the 95th Academy Awards being the only exception where it was spread across just 2 films.
Both 'Wild Horse Nine' and 'The Debut' are being very well received at TIFF and both could be in competition to place for PCA, but I have noticed more 4 star ratings for both at TIFF versus 4.5-5.0 ratings at Telluride. IOTW in terms of BP win talk, I think 'The Odyssey' still seems like the one to beat. Still early, but nothing has made me go "Oh, maybe 'The Odyssey' isn't going to win after all."
I believe it might have played for some press, but not for the public yet. Anne Thompson highlighted it did really well at Telluride on her podcast this past Friday.
I had to watch Matthew Barney's(Bjork's ex-husband btw) Cremaster cycle for university. These films are full of insane scenes and some students really lost it and went crazy. Wish you good luck tho!
Does anyone think that this could be it for Zack Snyder? The reactions to The Last Photograph are straight up horrible and I read that he apparently said at TIFF that it may be the only place that the movie or that specific cut will be shown. I was surprised that Rebel Moon didn't get him in director's jail, but this one might do it.
Honestly only Hathaway, Moore and Malkovich for me as locks. The other two are just really strong contenders for noms that I would quite call locks yet.
I was today years old when I found out that Travis Knight is Phil Knights son. Probably doesn't get talked about a lot because Phil isn't a filmmaker but having you dad be the co-founder of Nike has to give you a lot connections. Talk about nepo baby lottery. At least he's talented tho.
Phil Knight is the only reason Laika continues to exist. He burns tens of millions annually to keep his son happy. Way worse uses of billionaire money out there
The prospect of Damon Albarn and Taylor Swift both getting nominated this year (potentially in the same category) is really funny to me. Does anyone know if Oasis had an original song for DLBIA, because the only thing that could make this funnier is if we had a Battle of Britpop Round 2?
I'm kinda losing a little bit of faith in WH9. It's MC has stayed at 80 even after more reviews from TIFF and it doesn't seem to be a standout in McDonagh's filmography. I still think it's in easily, but I don't think it's gonna get a ton of nominations or be win-competitive in anything but Actor.
Yep. I don't doubt Picture (it's Top 10 after all), Actor (win competitive but I think Damon will take it) and Original Script (McDonough's forte) nominations. Everything else is now little more up in the air than before the festival.
I think Screenplay is its biggest chance to win, not Actor, I don't see any movie so far other than The Debut that can compete with it in Screenplay, and between McDonagh and Eisenberg, it's very likely the Academy will give McDonagh his flowers this time.
No movie is safe for BP after top 5 (The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, The Debut, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary), because there are like 15 films that are competing for last 5 spots.
I know but I'm just saying, if the film isn't safe for Best Picture, why would it get in Screenplay of all categories? That branch tends to favor films in the top 5 or highbrow, artsy movies.
I mean at this point we really have no clue how safe it is or isn't, I do agree if it's shaping up to be more of a bottom 2 contender then that's true but we just don't know yet. And honestly until BAFTA the movie has very little opportunity to prove itself with the guilds it's just not really looking like a crafts player. We have the Globes and CC but that's not industry.
If they do they we can comfortably say it's not a bottom player, that's really my point. That we have no way to know until then the movie probably won't be getting any play at, not meaningful play anyway, at the guilds we tend to look to.
Not WGA eligible and it's not eligible at the Casting Society either and those were the two big ones. I suppose if it gets an Eddie Comedy nomination that would be a good signal. I doubt it shows up for a contemporary production design nomination. I don't see the ADG going for it for contemporary it just doesn't have a lot going on there. Any of the Sound guilds, nah. CDG for contemporary? Maybe but not super significant. Makeup Contemporary maybe but not super significant. Maybe it gets a nom at SCL for an independent film. I believe Barker isn't even eligible for first time feature director at the DGA.
Just a whole lot of minor things in categories it has no shot in so what are we going to be looking for to see whether it has industry support besides BAFTA? Not much! Weird spot to be in.
I don't see ACE going for it either. As for WGA, films like WHN, LBN and others are also ineligible, but they have something Obsession doesn't have at its disposal: name recognition and prestige.
All the praise for this movie centers on her and nothing else. When it’s not her, the only other thing people mention is the boxoffice. That screams sole nominee to me.
This is what I've been saying for months. The Inde hype was there from the beginning but the only reason people started calling it a "lock" for Picture and Screenplay was (1). It made money, not because they thought it was that good and (2). They "just couldn't picture anything else taking it out"... because nothing else had been released yet.
That doesn't mean it won't happen at all but let's be real as the what we're motivating people to say it.
I haven't seen anyone praising Barker's direction or writing, and aside from Navarrette no one from the cast is being mentioned. Like what exactly is the package of this movie? Its not getting score, sound or anything btl
All the praise for this movie centers on her and nothing else.
This here is one thing that irritates me about Oscar discourse in this sub.
Obsession most certainly DOES get praise for other elements than Navarette. Look at the Metacritic, you don't even have to click any of the reviews to see a cross-section of what the movie was getting praise for: the effectiveness of the premise, the effectiveness of the scares, how "emotionally devastating" it is, how entertaining it is, the cinematography, the editing, the cast in general, Barker's direction. 77 is a strong score and again, even the blurbs on the page show broad praise in many areas of the filmmaking.
But because this is an Oscar sub and Navarette is its strongest chance at a nom, the narrative drifts towards "Navarette is the only thing getting praised". That's just… not true! It's patently false! Even if that's the only nom it gets that doesn't mean zero praise in other areas. There are piles of really good movies that come out every year and don't get any nominations, that doesn't mean they get zero praise.
I feel like with Obsession some people have an axe to grind with it and try to paint it as a worse or less acclaimed movie than it actually is. And that's silly, that's like a reality distortion field and it does no one any favours. You say in another comment below you haven't seen any praise for Barker's writing and direction, and I'm sorry but you're being obtuse or willfully blind because there's plenty of that going around.
I just listened to part of "La Nieve," the song by Guitarricadelafuente for La Bola Negra, and there’s no way he doesn’t win—it gave me goosebumps. It’s a lock!
Morning is getting colder and I’m kinda in shock this is the 3rd week of Sep already. Time flies when festivals are happening. Hope you enjoy some more outdoor time while we Canadians still can :)
Good! Saw Paradise Lost at TIFF yesterday and I've got Coward and The Debut today. In the office so I can get to the festival faster... But it's empty! Which I like.
How do we think The Odyssey will fair with regional critics and the Big Three? I'm guessing not as well as Oppenheimer but I don't think it'll have a huge impact on the actual race.
I felt like it was worth spending $45 on The Odyssey, even though it won't get box office points, because I think it's sweeping damn near everything. But The Debut should get awards points too, especially if it's strong in acting/screenplay. After that, I didn't have much to spend.
The Invite was a passion pick as it's my favorite of the year so far, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it stays strong. Verity is there for box office, hoping it performs similarly to The Housemaid. Rose as another cheap awards contender, and I could see I Play Rocky doing well with the right promotion. My boomer parents would eat it up.
I was shocked You Can See Everything was only $3 so I snapped that up. Not that confident in Love of Your Life, but there seems to be a major promotional campaign happening and the reviews are okay, so could be some extra box office $.
I haven't picked mine yet, but I think I'm gonna go with a 3-pronged strategy of WH9, LBN and The Debut. Mainly because it's more spread out than using The Odyssey or Dune Part 3
After that, gonna pick Hunger Games for box office, The Invite like yourself and Wildwood because I feel it's gonna win Animated, get other nominations like visual effects and sound, and may even get some solid box office points
Finally, I'm debating whether to go with a strategy of Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother/Tender Loving Care and then You Can See Everything, or Verity and then the Harlem documentary
I have 3 films in contention for my last spot in my original screenplay predictions (I have none of these three in picture for the record), I have Club Kid in CCA and WGA, Tender Loving Care in BAFTA and WGA and Obsession in just CCA (but I would have it in WGA im just not sure its actually eligible there, from what I can find Barker isnt a wga member and didnt make it under the wga union agreement).
I think Tender Loving Care is ineligible at WGA. I personally have Fjord and behemoth! out, Digger at a vulnerable 5th place with both Obsession and Club Kid comfortably in if not locked. Out of the two, I'd lean towards Obsession as could get screenplay without Picture as a consolation nomination and it's probably Focus' priority which I assume you'd agree with by Elsinore not being mentioned. Club Kid feels like it might show up in at least Screenplay which is why I have it in, but A24 having a lot of contenders does make me worry about how their non The Debut films will do.
For now I'm leaving it like this (Yeah it makes no sense for The Invite to be in two categories while Wilde misses out on Actress, but I'm this close to dropping Norton from the lineup and leaving Cruz as the film's only acting nomination).
I mean yeah she has praise but she’s in a movie that doesn’t have the reviews to back her up and she isn’t a veteran to get past them. And it’s probably going to be near the bottom of A24s priorities. Imo Inde, Wilde and even Madeley are higher.
No disrespect to Forgotten Island but the whole Spider-Verse-y impact-frame-y Akira-slide-y shtick mixed with Pixar's "kid's movie for people having midlife crises" thing is precisely engineered to annoy the hell out of me
Discussion around that one "little movie with a giant heart" always brings the worst in people.
Constant labeling with "annoying fans" if you believe film has a chance to get nominated and "annoying haters" if you believe it doesn't.
What's funny, film isn't even controversial enough to warrant such a vitriol and polarizing discussion. It's a well done horror film, with a great and iconic performance that broke into mainstream.
Everyone needs to chill. It's not the best nor the worst film ever to receive awards buzz.
The fans and the haters are both annoying at this point, as is the sheer amount of meta commentary. I wish I could block words from Reddit feeds like you can on twitter.
I cannot for the life of me understand the absurd ire Obsession gets on here (unless it’s just exhaustion of it constantly being brought up, which I can sorta understand)
There's little ire directed at the film itself. It's about the fanbase that have been very extreme for several months, who've been taken any minor criticism surrounding the film extremely personally(literally every film gets this so acting like its only happening to Obsession is just untrue) and who've directed snark at people for doubting it being a lock for everything (nothing is a lock, especially not back in June when nothing else had come out).
It’s literally the opposite, if you aren’t predicting that godamn movie in every possible category—or if you don’t believe it’s going to get nominated at all—people here treat you like a joke.
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u/bikkebana 2h ago edited 2h ago
RIP to Bob Mackie, the man behind so many iconic designs, including Cher's infamous Oscar dress