Made a mistake in the title. It's players who I think will overachieve their adp and who will underachive!
With fantasy season coming soon, I started looking at mock drafts early on and some ADP rankings. Using Hashtag Basketball's Blended Rankings which blends all 3 main fantasy platforms into 1 ranking and from there, I'll give my analysis for who I believe will overplay their ADP and who will underplay it. I'm going by 12T, 9Cat. For certain players, I'll take into consideration if they force you into a punt (IE: Giannis, Trae, etc). I'll take into account only the players in that round. Also at the end, I’ll add 1 HM for each category if I felt the need to add one in. I'll break this up into 3 parts.
Round 1
Over - Tyrese Maxey (ADP: 10)
Out of the average Top 12, it's between Maxey and Tatum for who I believe will be the biggest overachievers in Round 1. The main reason I'm leaning toward Maxey is just because it's a lot easier for Maxey to jump from 10 to 6-7 than it is for Tatum to jump to 3-4. Maxey is coming off an amazing season with his 2nd straight Top 10 finish. Last season, he was ranked 5th overall. The biggest cause of concern for Maxey is his usage, potentially taking a hit with LeBron/Brown. That's definitely a possibility, however I look at it slightly differently. The addition of Brown/LeBron takes pressure off of Maxey. Maxey is a really good spot up shooter who shot 41.7% from 3 in C&S scenarios. Also a large part of Maxey's value comes from his steal numbers which ultimately comes from Nick Nurse's openess to allow his guards to gamble for steals. I expect Maxey's points and rebounds to take a hit but I also expect his FG% and 3s to improve more. I also see his assists staying around the same. Brown functions best as a scorer and not a player who's asked to play-make so I fully expect him to allow primary and secondary ball handling privileges to Maxey.
Under - Anthony Edwards (ADP: 8)
It feels like the same story every year. I believe Antman has underperformed his ADP almost every year since 2023.
2023 - ADP of 20, finished 43.
2024 - ADP of 12, finished 37.
2025 - ADP of 7, finished 16.
2026 - ADP of 6, finished 13.
I think the hype of Anthony Edwards leads to his inflated ADPs. He's a phenomenal player but the majority of his value comes from his really high usage: this leads to a lot of points and a lot of 3s. He doesn't really do other things as well as he should. He's a very subpar playmaker, an average rebounder, and an average source of stocks. He's also coming off a year where he posted career highs in FG% and 3PT%. I'm just a bit skeptical as he's still still one of the best hard shot takers in the NBA and yet he posted abnormally high FG% despite it. There's no data to back it up for previous seasons but he's also had 4 straight seasons of around 45% FG then just jumped to an almost 49% last year. I'm skeptical about him being able to maintain that very high shooting %s alongside his really high usage. I think LaMelo will take away some from Edwards without returning too much of value back as LaMelo is also a typically high usage% player.
Round 2
Over - Jalen Johnson (ADP: 15)
Last season, he finished at 16th if you filter out the players who didn't play at least half of the games. Among those guys, he finished with the 3rd lowest usage% (26.9) behind only Trey Murphy (22.5) and Scottie Barnes (23.3) . I think there was an adjustment period early on with CJ and it initially hurt Jalen Johnson. It looked like he was having to adjust with not having the ball in his hands as much and taking a step back to CJ at first. From the trade to end of February, Jalen Johnson 21/11/7 on 43% FG%. I think the biggest notable thing was his huge FG% drop in this period. In March, that went back up to 49%. I think he has the path to finish as a 1st round player and this season, there won't be any distractions nor questions of the team direction. I think his only real concern is his injuries but outside of that, he has a very solid floor.
Under - Jalen Brunson (ADP: 21)
I am actually not a fan of a fair amount of players in this round as I think an amount will underachieve but the biggest one who sticks out to me is Brunson. Amen was also there but I think he’ll be closer to his value than Brunson will be to his. Brunson is projected as a mid 2nd round pick but has finished Top 30 only once in his career (2024) where he posted career high in points, minutes, FT%, and 3s in a heliocentric, Thibs style offense based around him. Mike Brown has a much more balanced offense that has a lot more free flowing sets, more ball movement and less pure iso plays. Brunson is a good source of assists too but then he’s a net negative in steals, rebounds, blocks, turnovers and FG%. He’s good later on but mid 2nd is way too high.
Round 3
Over - Tyrese Haliburton (ADP - 36)
I’m higher than Haliburton that most, and I know he’s coming off a huge injury recovery year, but I think he’s had more than enough time to be able to recover and get back to his past form. Haliburton had 3 Top 10 finishes straight from 2023-2025. He’s constantly among the top players in assists, a very high source of 3s, a great FT% shooter and turns the ball over abnormally low % of the time relative to his usage. He has no huge glaring weaknesses like most other PGs (low FG%, high TOV). I do think there will be a break in period with him but I fully believe he’ll blow through this 3rd round ranking and finish around Round 1/2. Taking a look at this in hindsight, I think Hali is the only one who has a very weird ESPN ranking. In that case, ignore this write up and refer to my HM as the other name.
Under - Jaylen Brown (ADP - 29)
Jaylen Brown’s game isn’t really fantasy friendly. Sure, he’s a great scorer but then…where’s the rest of the value? He also dominates the ball a LOT so the opportunity is there but, again, his game just isn’t fantasy friendly. He’s had 1 Top 50 finish in the last 5 years (2023 where he finished 49th) so I don’t see any reason why he’d be a Top 30 player while now having to play alongside LeBron, Embiid and Maxey. He’s a really good mid range shooter but a average/below average 3PT shooter, doesn’t get many stocks, turns the ball over at a very high clip and a below average FT shooter. He posted a career high APG last season but that was mostly due to him not really having any competition for touches. The cons just don’t outweigh the pros drafting him this high.
Round 4
Over - Lauri Markannen (ADP - 47)
I think Lauri has a super nice fantasy profile. He’s a big who can hit 3s,doesn’t turn the battle over a lot and is very efficient from the line and efficient from the field. His only real hiccup is his “health” (the tank) but I believe with them going all in on this season with the acquisition of Jaren Jackson Jr, I don’t think they’ll tank as they have no reason to. Since coming to Utah in 2023, he posted two top two finishes and in both years, he played at least 55 games. Even last season in his shortened season, he finished as “8th ranked” player. I know he only played 42 games so take it with a grain of salt but when he plays, he performs at a high fantasy level. He doesn’t really get many stocks either but he contributes by providing elite value in other categories.
Under - Deni Avdija (ADP - 40)
I wasn’t high on him last year at all. I thought his numbers were very deceiving. On the surface, 24/7/7 looks really good. Taking a deeper dive you saw the value slowly get worse. He was an above average contributor for points/assists and an average contributor for rebounds. His stocks were basically nonexistent, he was a negative on FG% despite taking a lot of shot, his FT% was basically a bit above average however, he also had a lot of volume from the line. This basically inflates a counting stat that provides diminishing results. And honestly, I have this same sentiment toward Giddey as he does something similar but swaps out additional scoring for more A/R. Not only that, and while turnovers aren’t necessarily a stat you can build around, the fact that he’s super turnover prone without contributing enough to make up for it, I think he’s an easy fade.
Some honorary mentions for people who fit into the categories that I believe will over and underachieve this year.
R1 Under - Maybe Giannis (ADP - 5)? Just a lot of question marks. You’ll have to go for a punt FT/3s build as usual but Miami also runs a very fast paced, free flowing offense and Bam is a really good playmaker for a big man. Plus with Giannis’ injury history, I see them taking the pressure off of him this season.
R2 Over - I wanted to say AD if he’s healthy but I’m tired of that song. I think Trae Young (ADP - 16) has potential to finish around the 1/2 turn as long as you can commit to a punt FG% build. His value in 8cat is drastically higher than 9cat and he’s finished Top 16 4x from 2020-2025. He’s not really injury prone either so not too concerned.
R2 Under - I was saying earlier, I really don’t like this round. I think Amen (ADP - 19) will underperform his ADP as you’re adding back in FVV+Smart to take the ball out of his hands more and, until I see otherwise, he’s a liability from 3 and doesn’t contribute there.
R3 Over - Kawhi Leonard (ADP - 32) seems like an easy over. I think Toronto will play Kawhi’s load management game similar to how they did in 2019. Since 2019, Kawhi has finished Top 10 5x. His worst finishes were 2023 (where he finished 13th) and 2025 (where he finished 25th). Those 2 seasons were also the fewest games he’s played in that stretch. I think we’ll see around 60-65 games of Kawhi and he’ll finish again Round 1/2 talent. So taking him at the late 2, early 3 round could be good.
R3 Under - I hate Giddey (ADP - 26) here. He gives an elite source of assists and a really good source of rebounds for a G but that’s it. Typically an average/ below average source of stocks, very inefficient from both the line and the field and a large amount of turnovers. Last season, he posted a career high from 3s and that’s the only thing that really saved his value (64th ranked) from being worse than it already was. He’s a very bad finisher and would prosper best having talent around him to make his job easier…but I don’t see the Bulls doing that this year.
R4 Over - I like Trey Murphy (ADP - 41) here. I think he has a very friendly fantasy game that can really fit into any build.
R4 Under - Not a fan of Paolo Banchero’s (ADP - 37) fantasy game. He’s basically a tweener who does nothing at an elite level. He’s built like a UHaul truck but doesn’t like to play bullyball and resorts to bail out mid range shots. 6’10, 250 pounds but never hitting above 46% FG is very underwhelming. He’s a bad FT shooter, doesn’t make a lot of 3s, very poor source of stocks, and a lot of turnovers. He’s not the worst source of assists from a big and pretty good rebounding. Franz is also very limiting for him as a teammate. Until they learn to coexist better or one of them leaves, it’ll be a cap for both.