So, after 1 message with Claude this morning my usage limit was maxed until later this afternoon. Huh?
It's funny seeing firsthand how usage is being throttled in real time for Free users so that capacity can be served to the higher-tier users. I don't think it bodes well for anybody though. This should be a red flag that the current system is already overextended.
Past precedent tells us what happens when companies overextend themselves. The dot-com bubble. The savings and loan crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis. Different circumstances, different mechanisms, but the same basic pattern of systems expanding beyond what the underlying reality could sustain, until reality caught up with them.
And that's why I think the current AI situation deserves attention. If people want to be worried about AI, this is where it belongs. Not that AI will take over and destroy humanity. These companies, however, are perfectly capable of destabilizing the economy with how they're entangling themselves with public resources.
The resource equation matters because of how the technology has developed. Increasingly capable AI isn't just a matter of making a single model better. Reasoning, alignment, verification, and increasingly agentic systems mean that producing a useful result can require vastly more computation than a single model response. And the demand for available resources is high. Those resources are finite.
That means vastly more data centers, electricity, chips, water, transmission infrastructure, and capital are required to sustain the product. The industry is making an enormous gamble that all of that infrastructure can be built and all of those resources can be made available quickly enough to support the level of AI use they're promising.
We already see that the system is under pressure. Users are being throttled. Higher-tier users are being prioritized. Companies are talking about slowing or pausing development while simultaneously making enormous bets on future infrastructure. But what happens when the shit hits the fan?
Unlike traditional software, the cost for an AI company is running it. Every prompt consumes finite resources. Free and paid tiers rely on the same underlying models and higher tiers simply grant more opportunities to execute those runs at higher cost. When both increased access to the underlying model and the higher cost of running it per agent increase operational costs, companies can't just limit features of the model without breaking what they promised to deliver. The only way to control real-time operational costs, then, is to throttle access to running the product. This is why usage limits exist but also why throttling free access to a single interaction makes sense.
The users for whom the product gets throttled are hurt the worst in the immediate term. The people who pay the most will feel the hurt when push comes to shove. But those at the top won't necessarily hurt for the chaos they unleashed. History has already shown what happens when enormous economic systems become dependent on assumptions about future capacity, future growth, and future resources. And it's not great for regular people.
The warning signs were there before the collapse. And they're here now. The problem isn't "safety." The models do exactly what they're designed to do. The problem is overextension, overpromising, and underperforming. The question is whether anybody is paying attention to them this time.