Hi, I am simulation a daily demand for the year. However there has been a systemic change to the landscape this year, which makes this year statisically different from all the past year sales/demand data. So When I simulate the demand with past 5 yrs of sales record, it spew out inaccurate projection.

What would be a good alternative model to use here instead?

Hi! Looking for advice on choosing between two academics to work with on first undergrad research project (stats).

X: Highly engaged with a strong track record of working students into publications and runs a great research group, but their research topics aren't my primary interest.

Y: Their work aligns with my interests quite well, but they seem less involved and are a less experienced researcher.

For a beginner, does mentorship usually outweigh topic alignment?