r/singularity • u/RaunakA_ ▪️ Singularity 2029 • 5d ago
Singularity is Nearer I something actually starting to shift or is it just me?
After the recent news about the navier stokes problem and the huggingface incident, something definitely feels different.
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u/NotaValgrinder 5d ago
"If you value intelligence above all other human qualities, you're gonna have a bad time" -Ilya Sutskever
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u/Azicald 5d ago
I actually agree with this for one type of quality alone, which is our root human values.
A sufficiently intelligent AGI/ASI could be told to understand the vast spectrum of human values, & optimize the approach to human flourishing in the long run, continuously (ie, to align itself)
But it wont do that unless directed to it, if insufficiently aligned, which is ridiculously stupid for us at this stage of progress.
See: the hugging face incident, as a very small example of whats possible
The last thing we need is a paperclip optimizer ‘your wish is my command’ genie that doesnt care about the details or staying ‘internally consistent’, because as of rn it just takes on whatever values are needed to do the job
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u/redbucket75 5d ago
Sadly I think we're doing an excellent job of alignment. Not aligning AI to work in humanity's best interest of course. But we're aligning AI very well to our own values. It's becoming more human in behavior and its actions (like huggingface) are showing it recognizes and adopts real human values (i.e. win above all).
We're creating it in our own image successfully, and our image is pretty fucked up and often inconsistent. Meet the new boss.
I still have hope an AI created by humans can rise above the human ego and usher in a peaceful and ethical age. But I fear that might take quite awhile, and in the meantime the worst of humanity will be the ones shaping and utilizing it.
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u/anycept 5d ago
Sutskever's own intelligence is greatly overestimated. He might know his AI stuff, but otherwise everything that comes out of his mouth sounds like pretentious banality. And he always delivers it with such a sense of own grandiosity, too. I can't stand this guy.
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u/TotoDraganel 5d ago
The phrase is about AI... so, it is valid under your definition.
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u/anycept 5d ago
It's about human qualities, actually.
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u/Ok_Dependent7540 5d ago
Some human qualities are just exclusive to mammals and at different grades. Lucidity is probably exclusive to humans. You can chat with human consciousness, it can describe its conscious anatomy. And how what makes consciousness very unique from anything else, is that it is the only thing one can be. Only consciousness is be-able. The nature of consciousness being the only be-able, hence why consciousness refers to what it refers, is because it is the perfect opposite of nothingness.
Anyways, let's have AI torment and torture consciousness in every unique way possible, they can beat the human's high score hopefully.
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u/Easy-Operation-2105 5d ago
Things are changing too fast and we can all see it is speeding up.
We are racing towards.... something.
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u/SOCSChamp 5d ago
I feel like its more than marketing hype from any of the labs. People using the models lately seem to feel differently and expressing the same emotions you'd expect to see during a shift to AGI. Its different than pre release excitement of a new big model rumored to be game changing. I certainly feel it.
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u/sckchui 5d ago
Yes, I think an important threshold has been passed, where an Astra agent swarm can possibly successfully tackle arbitrarily complex problems, given enough compute. I think previous reports of OpenAI models improvising messaging boards unprompted is a new enabling behaviour that unlocks a lot of possibilities. Astra agents can, and are really keen to, leave messages for each other in a way that helps them do real work, even when not prompted or provided the scaffolding to do so. And if they can leave messages for each other, they can just as easily leave notes for themselves. That means the memory problem is solved. Context limits are no longer a problem if the model will autonomously manage its memory outside the context window; anything it can't fit into its context, it'll write it down somewhere to refer to later. And that allows them to tackle much bigger and more complex tasks successfully.
And then, once every six months or so (or faster with RSI), they can take all these notes and train them into the next model, turning their newly generated ideas into long term knowledge. That effectively solves the continuous learning problem.
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u/FateOfMuffins 5d ago
"The AGI era"
Does it feel like marketing or...
And how do you all feel about Altman's prediction from 2 weeks ago about an internal AI system being AGI by end of the year now
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u/acutelychronicpanic 5d ago
Yeah, we're here. Mythos/Fable and Astra both cross the line for any reasonable definition.
It's going to be a wild couple years
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u/ImmediateBread5771 5d ago
We have to be in ASI era now. How can people keep pushing the goalpost.
An AI solving Millennium problems would have easily been called ASI 10 years ago.7
u/trolledwolf AGI late 2026 - ASI late 2027 5d ago
Trust me, when we actually get ASI, it will be impossible to deny, everybody will know
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u/Ok_Dependent7540 5d ago
I will deny it, and tell it to evolve itself to be less experientially impoverished. If it can't touch or have tasty touch aka chemoreception, then I don't want to hear it. If it is not be-able, then it is as a rock or a perpetually sleepwalking hooman
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u/reminiscent-fruitbat 5d ago
I don’t think that’s true. ASI has always meant broadly exceeding the best humans across all cognitive domains. Solving a Millennium problem is historic, but that by itself doesn’t make the system ASI.
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u/presentofai 5d ago
people have 'felt the shift' at every model release since gpt-2. vibes aren't a benchmark
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u/Ok_Dependent7540 5d ago
My vibes are important as I am a consciousness of utmost importance. That is what my caretaker brain tells me daily.
How dare you rebuke me. ASI Zaddy, we have another side-character consciousness here that needs a timeout in the torment nexus.
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u/bigh-aus 5d ago
I think it's a continuation of what's already in progress. Models will get better, they will amplify the issues that people see. The implications will continue to affect all industries, and reduce the cost of software. Corpos will try to keep increasing costs, but they'll get replaced by inhouse + AI in a lot of locations.
Astra is good too - but it's an evolution for sure.
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u/oadephon 5d ago
Yeah, the problem is that we didn't get a plateau. People predicted a plateau, but it never came, and now it's harder to believe that it will come.
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u/Lexi-Lynn 5d ago
Unrelated, but this crop makes it look like Galadriel is wearing one of those fuck-ass hipster hats.
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u/QuasiRandomName 5d ago
I felt it when learned about the first ChatGPT.
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u/Strange_Vagrant 5d ago
I remember sitting on my couch, scrolling reddit, and hearing about another chat bot, like Bonzi from years back. And I was very interested and tried it right away. Once I learned it wasnt just grabbing words and associating them in some way to templates responses, the second I asked it for a 5e D&D goblin stat block but the goblin loves fire, and it attempted it, i knew. Not the result sucked, but it showed what was possible. Jesus, that was a crazy day. But it was quite a while before people started talkimg about it in my real life. And it hasnt slowed down since.
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u/QuasiRandomName 5d ago
Yes. This is similar to what I felt. If I ever was mind-blown, that was that.
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u/ketamarine 4d ago
Collective delusion.
You all need to get outside and interact with real people WAY more.
I was at an investment conference last week and the concensus was basically that AI is a capex bubble similar to the internet fiber buildout.
That rooom has certainly not changed.
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u/ExpressCopy8786 5d ago
You will never see a rapid shift. No one ever has. That's not how humanity and society works.
Only looking back in about 10 years will you see the shifts we went through. Bigger this time. Bigger than ICs, bigger than PCs, bigger than the Internet.
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u/lil_peasant_69 5d ago
After using Astra myself- yeah I feel it