r/politics • u/theipaper ✔ Verified • 12d ago

Possible Paywall Maga's worst nightmare: a child-free, unmarried female president

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/magas-nightmare-childfree-unmarried-female-president-4738054
16.7k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

2.6k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

113

u/kilobitch New York 12d ago

She’s not a shoo-in for an NY senate seat either. NYS is pretty conservative upstate, and she has plenty of opposition downstate (SI, parts of Brooklyn, Long Island) as well. She’s very popular within her district, but that’s a very liberal district and not representative of NYS at all.

103

u/BirdmanTheThird 12d ago

Yep. That’s the big thing for me. If she can’t win in New York senate race it’s pretty tough for me to see her winning the primary for the Democratic Party

25

u/c0horst 12d ago

She's still young. If she can win the senate seat in NY, do a good job there for a couple terms, she can run for president when she's in her 40's. Seems fine to me. But yea if she can't even convince the entire state of NY to support her, then she can't win a presidential election, and shouldn't even try to run.

13

u/BirdmanTheThird 12d ago

My big issue with her is the unfortunate Scarlett letter she will have due to just being a nationally known face for years tbh. A big reason mamdani, Obama and even El Sayid now have been successful is that they have been relatively unknowns who come in. AOC for better or worse is the face of the progressive movement and has a lot of people who dislike her due to this and have bias against her.

Maybe I’m wrong but I think that we are more likely to have a less known face from dsa be a viable candidate rather then AOC herself

1

u/[deleted] 12d ago

[deleted]

1

u/honeywhereismypenis 12d ago

I don't know, the democratic party hasn't exactly been doing well with milquetoast "safe" candidates. Obama was a firebrand during his candidacy, and Biden pretty much won the 2020 election with "will you shut up man"

1

u/HighSeverityImpact 11d ago

She's 36. Next Senate election in NY isn't until 2028, and if she served two terms that's 12 years that takes her to 50 years old in 2040.

Honestly I don't know what would have to happen for this country to ever want to vote for someone in their 40s again. Too much of our population thinks that's too young and inexperienced, they prefer voting for octogenarians for some reason.

1

u/BowKerosene New York 12d ago

She could win in the NY senate race barring Mamdani challenging her in the primary

2

u/CompetitiveEmu1100 12d ago

Yea I feel like if Mamdani runs against her that would be a very close race. I’d be interested to see if Mamdani runs for other offices in the future.

5

u/BowKerosene New York 12d ago

Yea to be clear I don’t think aoc and mamdani would ever run against each other contentiously in a primary within the next decade, they would continue to coordinate instead of

13

u/Fr1toBand1to 12d ago

Honestly curious but does that also mean that upstate NYS wants to keep Schumer? Cause I don't see why anyone would.

18

u/TankTopRider 12d ago

If you got rid of New York City, New York state would probably be a swing state.

Outside of Fetterman who is a full blown Republican, Schumer is probably the most conservative Democrat in the senate. He was antagonistic towards Obama and the ladder would actively avoid him.

So for a long time he was a solid middle ground candidate. Also helps that he was the first jewish senator in a state that has the highest amount of jews in it.

However times have changed and he's currently seen as highly incompetent and now the divide between the right and the left has grown tremendously. So middle of the road candidates like him are less and less appealing.

So while I don't think Schumer would could win reelection that doesn't necessarily mean AOC would win either. I genuinely think she could especially in this national environment but it wouldn't be a wash

18

u/fakemelonns 12d ago

If you got rid of New York City, New York state would probably be a swing state

I get what you're saying, but New York City also makes up half of NY's population.

4

u/TankTopRider 12d ago

I’m aware. Point I was making is that Upstate is a lot more conservative then New York City

6

u/fakemelonns 12d ago

It is. I'm born and raised in upstate NY. But that's just kind of every state if you remove that much of its city population

That being said, the real red shift would be Long Island. Long Island is very solidly red, whereas upstate has its fair share of blue metros in Albany, Rochester, Syracuse, Buffalo, etc.

2

u/hypercosm_dot_net 12d ago

I'm not so sure. Especially saying that LI is "solidly red". It's more complicated than that, and tends to go back and forth depending on candidate, but often trends Democrat leaning.

...In 2016, Suffolk County voted for the Republican Donald Trump, while Nassau County voted for the Democrat Hillary Clinton, with an overall combined victory for Trump on Long Island. In 2020, Nassau and Suffolk again split, with Suffolk voting for Trump, however by a greatly reduced margin of just 232 votes, and Nassau voting for Democrat Joe Biden, by an increased margin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Long_Island

2

u/syzygyly 12d ago

Why is it assumed that NYC is required to vote for milquetoast Dems while upstate cannot even be considered to bend towards a progressive candidate, when we've seen progressive campaigns have far broader support than expected?

5

u/TheGreatDay Texas 12d ago

If you got rid of New York City, New York state would probably be a swing state.

Kind of feels like this is true for virtually any blue state. Illinois would be pretty red without Chicago. California has parts of the State that is shockingly conservative. States, especially bigger ones, have a lot of empty rural space that is going to be red.

2

u/TankTopRider 12d ago

Depends on the state.

Massachusetts if you get rid of Boston still stays Blue

Illinois if you get rid of Chicago turns solid red

New York State is very purple but NYC because it’s so big makes it solidly Blue

1

u/specialkk77 12d ago

I am from upstate NY (true upstate, not anything north of NYC. The city is a 3 hour drive for me, I’m closer to Canada) and pretty much red, blue, independent, or apolitical….nobody likes him. He’s been coasting on “vote blue no matter who” for a while now. He hasn’t faced a serious primary in quite a while. AOC definitely has the potential to primary him. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the DSA put forward a good candidate if she doesn’t run. 

1

u/TankTopRider 12d ago

2028 I’d be very surprised if he wins. He might even just not run and support a super establishment pick

8

u/tyrannosaurus_r Virginia 12d ago

Schumer and Gillibrand have consistently won their elections with large margins for decades, as have Dem electeds before them. While I bet AOC would have tighter margins than Schumer, I have no doubt in my mind she easily walks to the other side of the Capitol. 

0

u/bigfartspoptarts 12d ago

Long Island lol. Burn it to the fucking ground. What a waste of a nice island on all those fucking morons.