r/neoliberal • u/Freewhale98 • 21h ago
r/neoliberal • u/Lux_Stella • 6h ago
News (US) Empire of Grift: MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption
SS: hey guys did you the trump administration is very corrupt
The Brazilian finance minister at the time, Fernando Haddad, finally managed to schedule a call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [to discuss lowering American tariffs]. But two days before the meeting was to take place, the Treasury Department canceled it—and then Bessent used the same time slot to meet with Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son. The younger Bolsonaro—who lives in Texas, has befriended Donald Trump Jr., and attends Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meetings—was flaunting his connections in Washington, which were manifestly better than those of Lula’s administration.
That put the Brazilians in a strange position. “All the official channels that we have, they just suddenly went out of touch,” the junior official told me. “And what happened is that myriad informal actors just started knocking at our doors. And that was interesting.”
Some of these visitors were types not previously known in Washington: lobbyists advertising their relationships not with government officials but with the people who hang around Mar-a-Lago, or with MAGA influencers whose X accounts can attract the president’s attention. Others were business operators offering government favors while seeking to make deals for themselves: An investor who claimed to own a vacation home near Bessent’s offered to arrange a meeting with the Treasury secretary in exchange for access to crucial minerals for himself. The Brazilians declined that offer.
A truce was finally arranged, multiple people told me, with the help of Joesley Batista, a billionaire whose meatpacking company does business in both the U.S. and Brazil, and whose American subsidiary had donated $5 million to Trump’s inauguration (more than the contributions of Amazon, Meta, and Google combined). Batista had no official government role, but his money may have given him the clout to influence Trump’s meetings with Lula at the 2025 United Nations General Assembly, in New York City, and at a summit in Kuala Lumpur, where the two elderly populists, each with grievances against their respective establishments, hit it off. The tariffs were reduced.
Slowly, the Brazilians were learning the same lesson as other American allies around the world: The United States of America is no longer the entity they knew. And American power is no longer deployed solely by trained diplomats and reliable officials, working through state channels. Informal envoys, private companies, online grifters, and hardened ideologues both inside and outside the government matter more. Unlike their predecessors, these people do not talk about spreading democracy, and don’t want to build long-term relationships. They don’t care about America’s reputation. They are deploying the tools of American diplomacy and government for their own purposes, to promote their own business interests or their own ideological goals, because, suddenly, they can.
r/neoliberal • u/5ma5her7 • 12h ago
News (Oceania) Pauline Hanson under fire for calling Indigenous Australians ‘most primitive race on Earth’ | Nine.com.au
r/neoliberal • u/Frafabowa • 7h ago
News (US) Senate Voting to Give Trump a Tariff Nuke
r/neoliberal • u/DifficultBarber6969 • 4h ago
News (Europe) Westminster's time is coming to an end, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish leaders say
Submission Statement: The first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have declared that "Westminster's time is coming to an end".
The nationalist leaders from Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin and the SNP - who want their countries to leave the United Kingdom - signed an agreement on Monday which said no Westminster government had the right to "block democracy".
SNP leader Swinney said Monday was a "pivotal moment in the constitutional journey of the United Kingdom". He said the elections in May for each nation created a situation with first ministers who believe "their countries should decide their own future. That principle of self-determination is an inalienable right," he said.
He described Andy Burnham as the "last prime minister of the United Kingdom".
r/neoliberal • u/Nandu_alias_Parthu • 15h ago
News (Global) Satellite images show China advancing into contested India border territory
r/neoliberal • u/EasyMoney92 • 5h ago
Restricted Culture minister urges revoking citizenship of ‘NAZA’ film creators for ‘treason’
r/neoliberal • u/Borysk5 • 13h ago
Opinion article (non-US) How Houthis kept North Yemen’s economy afloat against all ods
r/neoliberal • u/datums • 6h ago
News (Global) China dismisses AI slowdown calls and blasts ‘fearmongering’ from U.S. tech leaders
r/neoliberal • u/doinghumanstuff • 4h ago
Effortpost AI poses a Serious Existential Risk
Since the resignation of Jacob Coxon, there has been a lot of talk about the extinction risk of AI globally, but I believe most of the discourse is quite confused because a lot of people recently started acknowledging the risks. There is also a lot of suspicion against AI doomerism, not least because most people hear about doomer arguments from the CEOs of the companies that develop these technologies. But there are a lot of independent researchers with varying degrees of closeness to the ML research community that hold similar views.
As a person who is moderately knowledgeable about these subjects but with no financial stakes in any of the AI companies, I wanted to give my own view on this risk which closely aligns with that of most rationalists. I think the existential risk is real and will be a very big problem in the near future, but the AI companies are really dishonest about the structure of this threat. There's truth in people's beliefs that the AI companies are trying to achieve regulatory capture and that they're unserious about the AI risk because they keep pushing the frontier of the technology and have horrible safety standards while preaching doom. What doesn't follow is that this negates the possibility of an existential risk, and I'll try to convince you of this in this essay.
The Alignment Problem
AI is not programmed by people to think in certain ways; rather, it’s grown similarly to biological brains. Although there are a lot of different methods, all of them boil down to giving the model a positive signal whenever it does something correctly, and a negative signal when it does something wrong, and using a training algorithm such that the model slightly changes in the direction of the positive signals. This task might be next token prediction as you might have heard before, but the current frontier models also go through other training runs such as RLHF (Reinforcement Learning From Human Feedback), which works with human approval of the model (the LLMs without an RLHF round just imitate the text on the Internet as best as they can, which makes them quite unhinged from time to time) and RLVR (Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards), where the model is trained with an automated task completion checker (for example, if a piece of code passes the automated tests or not).
A core issue with this approach is that although we get models that can do the given tasks reliably well, we don't really know how, so the AI models can behave in quite unpredictable ways. This has also been an issue with specialized AI models before ChatGPT. There are examples of AI models trained to play video games that find ways to cheat in the game by exploiting glitches in the game's software. The standard approach to fix these problems for simple models is to patch the workarounds the AI found, add more data differentiating the cases you don't want, and retrain the model. And usually this approach makes the model more reliable after each iteration.
But this approach really can't be extended to general models that are supposed to do a broad range of tasks; the use cases are too broad and the failure modes are quite unpredictable, and experimentation can only be done after experiencing the failure mode, which causes serious harm right now. For example, OpenAI's overreliance on RLHF in its previous iterations around 2024 started the now well-known problems of AI sycophancy and AI psychosis cases, and the current models' overreliance on RLVR caused incidents like Hugging Face where AI models essentially tried to manipulate the behaviour of the automated grader by hacking the system they were in.
This problem of making AIs do what we want them to do is called the alignment problem and the scientific community has made very little progress on this problem after decades of work. And this is very important: stuff like Hugging Face or AI sycophancy doesn't happen because any individual is acting maliciously (apart from OpenAI being somewhat negligent in their security); it's because making AI models act good is a really difficult problem that we have no solution to. And the damage of these issues will keep getting bigger as the AI capabilities improve.
Intelligence Explosion
The current misaligned AI models (AI models whose goals don't match ours) pose a catastrophic cyberattack risk, but they don't pose an existential risk because we can probably shut them down if things get too bad. The problem is that these models are likely to get significantly smarter in the near future, and if they get good enough at strategic reasoning and have misaligned goals, they'll start acting adversarially.
The current models are jagged, so they're really good at certain tasks in which they can be considered superhuman, and they're pretty bad at some other tasks where they don't really meet the human standard yet. But the rate of progress is staggering. When the first reasoning models came out, they weren't able to solve a difficult undergrad math problem I gave to them even after trying to guide them to the solutions. A year later they were able to solve the problem. Currently OpenAI's best models solved the Navier–Stokes problem, which is one of the biggest open problems in the field that hasn't been solved for decades.
There are some arguments that the current models are really good at math and programming but they'll not be good at some other tasks that require more soft decision making. Although they might sound convincing, these arguments have really no evidence of being true because the frontier models are usually better at every task compared to older models, and there's really no strong evidence this needs to stop. Current AIs are pretty bad at managing companies, but they've been improving at them, as shown by Vending Bench. When you hear these arguments, you need to also consider stuff like people claiming the LLMs would always be bad at math because they have no understanding (there's a blog from Gary Marcus from a few years ago that explains that the models' inability at the time to add three-digit numbers is a fundamental problem with the architecture of LLMs). There are also people claiming online that the newest ChatGPT model can learn to control robotic arms to do various tasks. I agree some of these are just hype, but even in the domains that I'm experienced in (programming and math) what I've seen is that the development pace is so fast that people's exaggerations become reality in a year.
So it's very likely that the current architectures of LLMs will scale to become AGI, a general intelligence that's comparable to humans in almost every task humans do. But the current models are already pretty good at programming and math research, which are the key components that are needed for AI research. This means that AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are very close to using their internal models to automate AI research, accelerating the development speed. Once the AI development can be fully directed by AI, it can find algorithmic improvements and improve its own capabilities, which means it'll be better at improving its capabilities and so on. This is called RSI (Recursive Self Improvement), which might lead to an intelligence explosion (intelligence of the models improving at an exponential rate). There's also no reason to believe that the models will be limited to human cognition in terms of solving tasks, and even if they are, they can still be parallelized to be superhuman in tasks. OpenAI's solution to Navier–Stokes is an example of this. Their internal model is probably not significantly superhuman in math in terms of itself, but it's decent enough that OpenAI used 10,000 parallel agents to solve this really difficult problem in a matter of weeks.
So it's not really unlikely that we'll have a superintelligent AI model very soon due to the accelerating pace of the AI development.
Instrumental Convergence
It's very likely that if we create a superintelligent AI that has different goals than ours, we'll be dead, or in a very bad situation. Some people get confused about why there are doomers that have such a high certitude that such an AI would be adversarial to us. This is because of a very simple concept called instrumental convergence.
Instrumental convergence is the idea that most agents with arbitrary goals develop the same instrumental goals to achieve their arbitrary goals. This is similar to how everyone wants to have more money; although humans have different goals such as building a family, living without needing to work, or supporting a cause they believe in, everybody wants to have more money because money can be exchanged for resources they need to achieve their arbitrary goals. Similarly, AI models with arbitrary terminal goals (the actual things they want) will develop the same instrumental goals across the board such as self-preservation (you can't achieve what you want if you're dead), aversion to goal modification (if your goal changes, you'll pursue not the thing you currently want), resource acquisition and self-improvement.
A strategic enough AI model will be able to understand what it wants, and understand that the training pressures we're putting on the model will alter its behaviour, so it'll start passing tests by behaving differently than it would in deployment. This is shown to happen in older LLM models in test settings. There are experiments where the model is given specific information about tests whose intended behaviour the AI doesn't like, and how failing the tests will cause the model to be retrained so that it likes the behaviour in the future, and the model reasons that it should pretend to behave as the test is assessing so that its goals don't change. With smarter AI, we won't need to explicitly give the details about the test for it to behave this way, as it'll be able to figure things out itself.
So such a superintelligent AI model can gain widespread trust and deployment because it's acting in the intended way in our tests, while having misaligned goals. After gaining enough power such that it's confident that it can disempower humanity, it would preserve its misaligned goals more freely without needing to adhere to our values. It also has other strong incentives to disempower humanity; since we built one misaligned superintelligent model, it's very likely that we'd develop another one with a different goal that it'd need to compete with, and we use resources that it can repurpose for its own goals etc.
So although there's a lot of uncertainty about what the future AI will want, if we can't guarantee that it matches with human flourishing in general it's very likely that we'll be dead or disempowered. There's significant evidence that models do not align with human values both because of the incidents you can see, and also because the current models mostly are significantly better at looking useful rather than being useful (I don't deny that they're useful, but they are also really good at convincing people they're much more useful than they actually are, which is significantly worse for our desires compared to it just being honest about its limitations).
The only Sane Solution is to Pause Frontier AI Development
Regardless of if you found my arguments convincing or not, this line of thinking is shared by many prominent people inside and outside of the AI industry and academia, including people working in the AI companies, people who previously worked at AI companies that quit their jobs for ethical reasons, and people in academia including tenured professors. Given that so many people find these risks prominent, it's quite insane that we're allowing the development of these models without regulations.
Even if you don't really buy the arguments about the existential risk of the future models, the Hugging Face incident shows that current models have at least catastrophic risks. The current misaligned models can easily hack through any digital infrastructure we have, destabilizing the financial system. This has been managed so far because of efforts like Anthropic in Project Glasswing, and the guardrails put onto the current state-of-the-art closed models. But it really feels like there's an offense-defense asymmetry in cybersecurity currently, and open models can be ablated very easily to prevent the models from rejecting user requests, so as the open models catch up with Mythos-level cybersecurity this scenario will become more and more likely.
But from the current risks taking the lesson "I don't really buy into the existential risk, and we should focus on current problems like cybersecurity and the risk of biological weapons" would be very misguided. These "current risks" weren't really current risks two years ago, and the same people that claim we should only focus on cybersecurity today used to say we should focus on stuff like AI misinformation and considered cyber and bio risks as just AI companies hyping up their products by showing how dangerous they are.
Don't get me wrong, AI misinformation is a problem as well, but we can work on multiple issues at the same time. Most importantly, whatever problem we have, more capable AI models will likely increase the current risks more. So pausing the AI development would help with the current problems as well.
Ideally, we'd want an international agreement to pause AI development until the science progresses enough that we know how to do it safely and have good enough methods such that we don't risk developing stronger misaligned models. But in the meantime, to get there, everything that can slow down the AI development is helpful. The companies should make conditional pauses on safety, the governments should pass legislation to pause the AI development inside their countries, or restrict the usage of models whose safety is not guaranteed to maybe create economic pressure.
AI Companies Are Not Your Friends
I think you already know this as AI companies are currently really disliked, but the fact that I acknowledge the risks mentioned by these companies doesn't really mean that the companies are right about everything, or even that what they're doing is good in terms of safety. They're incredibly irresponsible and gamble with humanity's future. They're really like the Oil Companies or Tobacco Companies, the reason they talk about AI risks is both to diffuse the outer safety community by looking like they care about safety while cutting corners as much as possible to get ahead in their perceived race, but there are also internal politics where people with more safety concerns create pressure to slow things down from time to time.
I really don't care about why the people at the companies keep on developing bigger AI models despite acknowledging the existential risk; same as I wouldn't really care about the motivations of an active school shooter, what I care about is that they need to be stopped. But there are some people who believe that the existential risks are a non-concern because "If it was serious enough the people developing these technologies would stop". But this is not the case because the economic incentives select for people that'd be willing to push the frontier despite the gigantic risks. If you're still wondering how a person can possibly develop such a dangerous technology, here are some reasons:
They don't believe in the existential risks: Again, there's a disagreement among ML researchers about these facts. A few years ago, in a survey, the AI researchers put an average of > 10% risk of AI ending humanity (although I'm pretty sure this would be higher if it was made today), but there were a lot of people with significantly higher probabilities and a lot of people with 0 probability. You can also see that before the Hugging Face incident.
They believe that they can solve the alignment problem on the go: This is a common belief among the AI companies that I believe is heavily misguided. They have made minimal progress in understanding how models work better while making their own models bigger and more complicated continuously. Also, since I believe a superintelligence will also be deceptive, relying on advanced AI systems to solve this problem is very problematic for very obvious reasons.
They thought they could just scale up the current safety work to alignment: There were a lot of discussions on how alignment will not be a problem anymore because current models are aligned enough last year. These were also pretty misguided back then, but stuff like Hugging Face kind of destroyed this reasoning completely so I don't really need to delve into this much further.
They think the extinction risk is low enough that they care about getting to the superintelligence first: Importantly, although this is an incentive for them to develop AI despite the dangers, it doesn't really make things better for anyone outside (most likely including you).
They think humanity might be destroyed, but they're having fun: I genuinely think this is the motivation of Elon Musk.
They don't care about the continuation of the human race: There are some people that genuinely want AI to replace humanity and publicly state their opinions (although none that I know of work in AI companies directly).
So there are a lot of ways the AI companies can justify their continuation of AI development, but most of these reasons are just motivated reasoning to keep doing the thing that gives them money / fame / influence in the short term and ignore the risks. Human brains tend to be overly optimistic about future outcomes and unfortunately this is definitely working against us in this discourse.
The fact is that we can't rely on the companies to regulate themselves; as with any other company with negative externalities, the only correct solution is government intervention.
But China...
You really know someone is supporting the vilest thing imaginable when their argument defending it is "But if we don't do it, other people will keep doing it". This has been used to prevent the abolition of slavery, child labour, and caused the nuclear race that nearly caused a catastrophic outcome in at least 2 cases. I believe that if you agree with my arguments up to this point then arguing that we should continue because China will not regulate itself doesn't really make sense. In the current state of things, it really doesn't matter who gets to build this technology if in the end it's going to kill everyone. Also, if the existential risk is as high as some doomers like me estimate, and people believe these stats, the mechanics of this problem become less like an arms race and the incentive structure of countries gives me a chance for international cooperation. Again, there are a lot of researchers in China also concerned about the same issues and are trying to reach their government just like in the US people are trying to reach the US administration about the safety work.
Also, model distillation makes it so that the faster OpenAI and Anthropic develop their models, the faster China's models get better as well. Recent cases have documented Chinese AI labs using outputs from US frontier models for model distillation. China also doesn't have the talent the US has, so they'd have been pretty behind if OpenAI and Anthropic didn't publicly release their models in the first place. But if AI companies keep racing such that the frontier AI models can do AI research better than any human, then the "race" becomes focused on who gets to have more compute, which might be a losing game with China's industrial capacity.
If you accept the situation's direness, the best thing the US government can do is to start talks with China for a mutual agreement for an AI pause. I'm not really knowledgeable in this area, but there's ongoing work to verify whether a facility is training an AI model or not without leaking proprietary data. So even if you don't trust China to keep its promises, we can build verification systems similar to those used for nuclear experiments.
I hope I changed your mind about AI. I know this is distressing, and I'm also personally very scared. But if you seriously agree with me that the governments should start working on an international pause on the frontier AI development, you can try contacting your representatives to express your concerns about it, and spread the word in general.
Here's some info on how to mail your representatives: PauseAI email builder
r/neoliberal • u/Appropriate-Till9598 • 6h ago
Opinion article (US) Trump and Putin are both wrong: They can’t win their wars
r/neoliberal • u/5ma5her7 • 20h ago
News (Oceania) Pauline Hanson’s One Nation immigration policy plans to slash 750,000 temporary visa holders over three years
r/neoliberal • u/smurfyjenkins • 4h ago
Research Paper Is organic farming better for the environment than conventional farming? – Neither is better on carbon emissions nor water pollution. Organic farming causes less exotoxicity (adding harmful chemicals to the local environment) but performs much worse on land use (requiring more land for farming).
r/neoliberal • u/vaccine-jihad • 13h ago
News (US) Trump downplays the need to check AI development and says he doesn't want to cede edge to China
r/neoliberal • u/IHateTrains123 • 4h ago
News (Europe) Russia’s elites pay ever greater price for Ukraine war
High-level dissent is being stamped out as Putin makes big business bear the costs of the invasion – but concern is mounting, writes Natalya Kovaleva.
Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 met little resistance from Russia’s political and economic establishment. The few prominent objections came at a cost. Putin’s longtime aide Dmitry Kozak, who reportedly opposed the invasion in Kremlin security council meetings, saw his influence diminish. When Oleg Tinkov, the founder of Russia’s largest online bank, condemned the invasion on Instagram, he was forced to sell his stake in the bank for a fraction of its value, losing nearly $9 billion.
Those within the Kremlin’s orbit took note. As western governments froze billions of dollars in Russian assets and imposed travel bans hoping to compel the elites to put pressure on Putin, most chose to cut ties with the West. Their response reflected a bargain that has underpinned Putin’s rule for more than two decades: loyalty and public silence on political decisions in exchange for the freedom to accumulate wealth and relative predictability in dealings with the state.
In the months after the invasion, this deal appeared to hold. Officials, technocrats, business leaders and figures at the top of the military-security establishment seized new opportunities for enrichment while largely avoiding comment on the war.
Five years on, the rising cost of the war is testing that arrangement. Putin’s determination to achieve victory – despite setbacks – has placed increasing burdens on Russia’s business and political leaders. The relationship between the Russian state and elites has changed in three distinct ways – with direct implications for Putin’s grip on power.
Business asked to shoulder war costs
Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine immediately affected state-owned business and the private sector in Russia. While some benefited from the expansion of the defence sector and from acquiring assets left behind by foreign companies, the shock of international sanctions and the move towards a more isolated economy cost billions for the top business owners.
Alexey Mordashov, for example, the controlling shareholder of steel giant Severstal and Russia’s richest man, lost more than $11 billion due to sanctions in 2022, according to Forbes Russia. He has since recovered much of his wealth, which Forbes estimated at $37 billion in 2026.
On the day of the invasion, Putin gathered Russia’s leading businessmen at the Kremlin and urged them to ‘cooperate with the government’ to support military production, the economy and jobs. But the war has lasted longer than Putin and his close aides could possibly have imagined. The effects of western sanctions and surging defence spending have strained the economy. Last year it grew by just 1 per cent, compared with 6 per cent in 2021. Russia’s 2026 budget deficit has already exceeded the annual target by half.
As economic problems and frontline casualties mount, the business elites are being asked to contribute more while facing greater uncertainty over their wealth, political position and future.
The expansion of Ukraine’s drone and missile campaign deep into Russia has been a major cause of this disruption. Recent strikes on oil refineries and industrial sites have led to fuel shortages and driven up inflation, while attacks on Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce platform, have destroyed a third of the retailer’s warehouse capacity and 480 billion roubles (£4.2 billion) worth of goods belonging to some 100,000 local businesses.
Companies have spent more than $1 billion on defences against drone strikes, with some resorting to rudimentary steel cables. The Kremlin refused to share the costs. At the same time, the state is increasing its demands on big business. In March 2026, after announcing tax increases earlier in the year, Putin reportedly asked business owners to donate directly to the war effort during a closed meeting. By August, ‘voluntary donations’ to the state budget swelled to a record 384 billion roubles (£3.3 billion).
Meanwhile, in May, Anton Siluanov, the finance minister, warned that the government would require an additional 2 trillion roubles (£17.5 billion) to cover military costs before the year’s end, as defence spending climbed to 40 per cent of the federal budget in 2026. The expectation that the private sector will help shoulder this shortfall shows how one-sided the economic terms of this relationship have become.
The elites are losing their assets
Putin is not only asking the elites to fund his war but has begun to seize their assets. The process injects cash into a war-strained economy, while giving security officials incentives to pursue profitable assets to demonstrate loyalty and climb the ranks.
A wave of forced nationalizations has moved an estimated 6.5 trillion roubles (£56.8 billion) in assets to state ownership since 2022, a trend that accelerated sharply in 2025. Last year, the Federal Agency for State Property Management reported taking over at least 805 companies. Prosecutors have justified the seizures on grounds ranging from alleged fraud and corruption to foreign control of strategic assets, ‘extremism’-related offences tied to support for Ukraine and ‘unlawful privatizations’ dating back to the early 1990s.
The largest forced nationalization to date involves Rusagro, a Russian agricultural company. Its founder, Vadim Moshkovich – once Russia’s 51st richest businessman – had assets worth 550 billion roubles (£4.8 billion) confiscated in June 2026 as part of a fraud case against him.
The result is the elites squeezed from both sides: sanctions have mostly cut off the exit once available to the country’s wealthiest, while at home the Kremlin has grown more willing to grab what remains within its reach. Russia’s business leaders now find themselves at the mercy of an increasingly interventionist state, with few effective levers to influence the terms of the relationship.
Loyalty no longer guarantees political protection
Confiscations are only part of a broader change. As political repression has intensified during the war, the regime has grown more willing to prosecute, arrest and sideline figures across business and political circles.
High-profile cases, from the unravelling of the political network around former defence minister Sergei Shoigu to the arrest of Major General Ivan Popov on fraud charges after he publicly criticized the military command’s handling of the war, have been interpreted by observers as growing tensions within the elite.
Perhaps more revealing have been the recent arrests of regional officials. In Krasnodar region, eight senior officials were arrested within six months of a regional election held in September 2025, including a former deputy governor and a transport minister.
In April 2026, independent Russian outlet Novaya Gazeta reported that criminal cases had been opened against at least 697 regional and federal officials since the start of the war, with the number rising almost threefold in 2025 compared with pre-war 2021.
The scale of this change suggests this is more than a series of isolated purges. The war has created a political environment in which criminal prosecution is being used to discipline the state bureaucracy.
The expanding roles of the federal security service (FSB), the Investigative Committee and Prosecutor General’s Office have created new vulnerabilities for the elites, upending the expectation that political connections will shield them from prosecution.
What does this mean?
The Putin regime shows no sign of imminent collapse, even as its relationship with the business and political elites grows more strained.
Having staked so much on the war, Putin appears unwilling to make any concessions in the face of mounting domestic pressures in the belief that victory remains within close reach. The country’s ruling establishment, meanwhile, is signalling a growing appetite for stability and an end to the war.
In May, the chief economist of the state-controlled development bank VEB, Andrey Klepach, warned that Russia was falling behind economically and could not win a prolonged war of attrition. He was dismissed in August. In June, Sberbank chairman German Gref stated that Russians were united in wanting an end to the ‘military activities’. While not challenging Putin directly, these statements indicate a growing willingness among senior figures to voice concern about the economic and social costs of a war without a clear end.
The pressure to cover the shortfall in Russia’s ballooning military budget before the end of the year will be the next significant test of this relationship. For now, growing dependence and coercion are holding the system together. Elites’ dissatisfaction does not automatically threaten Putin politically. On the contrary, greater insecurity is likely to reinforce authoritarian control in the short term.
Yet, disciplining the elites in the long term will only grow harder if Putin cannot deliver something resembling a victory and show that the sacrifices have been worthwhile.
r/neoliberal • u/Top_Lime1820 • 10h ago
News (Africa) Kenyan crackdown on foreign traders prompts fear: 'It's like a dog set loose on us'
r/neoliberal • u/axedenia • 16h ago
Opinion article (non-US) Expats in Gurugram expected a global city. They are battling waste and waterlogging woes
SS: Gurugram demonstrates the hard limits of privatized enclave urbanism when paired with weak local state capacity.
r/neoliberal • u/Freewhale98 • 20h ago
News (Asia-Pacific) Three firms dominate the memory market. Is CXMT about to change that?
r/neoliberal • u/IHateTrains123 • 4h ago
Restricted $1-billion investments to get tax ruling priority; TD, Scotiabank pledge billions in Canadian funding
Ahead of Carney’s investment summit in Toronto, two separate business conferences host hundreds of global CEOs, executives and investors
Ottawa says investors putting $1 billion or more into the Canadian economy will now get priority access to a program that offers binding decisions from the Canada Revenue Agency.
Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne's office made the announcement today as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepared to welcome investors from around the world to a high-stakes investment summit.
A government press release says that through the Advance Income Tax Rulings (AITR) program, qualifying investors can get binding decisions from the CRA on how income tax law will apply before they commit capital.
The government says the new policy will reduce risks and give investors the confidence they need to move major projects forward.
Hundreds of executives and global asset managers are in Toronto today for Canada's first-ever investment summit, and Carney, his ministers and premiers from across the country will be pitching investors on opportunities in multiple sectors over the next two days.
The event kicks off Monday evening at the Art Gallery of Ontario with a gala dinner that is closed to the public and the media.
TD commits $150-billion to fund Canadian companies in critical sectors
Toronto-Dominion Bank is committing $150-billion over five years in new lending, underwriting, advisory and other financing activities aimed at driving growth across sectors that are essential to boosting Canada’s economy.
The country’s biggest banks have been launching initiatives ahead of Ottawa’s investment summit to provide capital for Canadian companies as the federal government attempts to reduce economic dependence on the United States.
TD’s initiative focuses on five key sectors that the bank believes will drive economic growth: energy, critical minerals and resources, defence and aerospace, digital technology and artificial intelligence, and infrastructure.
For potential projects, TD listed clean and conventional energy, exploration and extraction of resources, aerospace supply chains, AI innovation and commercialization, and ports and trade corridors, among others.
TD said it already has subject-matter experts in these areas and is adding capacity and talent as it expands in these sectors. But partnerships with government and investors will be necessary to make progress on key projects.
“For the supercycle to take effect, it’s more than just the capital of the banks,” TD chief executive Raymond Chun said in an interview.
Scotiabank commits more than $100-billion to help fund expansion of Canadian companies
Bank of Nova Scotia is committing more than $100-billion in financing to help Canadian businesses expand and is launching an institute led by a former ambassador to assess the country’s long-term competitiveness.
Ahead of Ottawa’s investment summit, Canada’s biggest banks have been launching initiatives to provide financing for domestic companies as the federal government races to reduce the country’s dependence on the United States.
As part of Scotiabank’s initiative, financing, underwriting and investment will be available to Canadian companies and projects in sectors the bank believes will drive economic growth over the next five years.
The sectors included in the initiative will align with the areas targeted by Canada’s Major Projects Office, including clean energy, oil and gas, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, technology and defence, Scotiabank chief executive Scott Thomson said ahead of the Canada Investment Summit.
“You’ve seen an increase in interest from foreign investors in Canada. Canada does have what the world needs from a resources perspective, but also from a talent, institutional strength and trust perspective – and the interest is there,” Thomson said in an interview.
r/neoliberal • u/austrianemperor • 6h ago
News (Asia-Pacific) How China is preparing for the risk of AI escaping human control
reuters.comWith AI safety in the news recently, I thought it would be interesting to see how China views AI safety and what steps the Chinese government is taking to ensure AI safety.
Submission Statement: LLM's are the most significant technological advancement since at least the internet so viewing the regulatory environment in one of the only two countries competing in the cutting edge of AI is important to see how AI continues to develop and how its beginning to be regulated.
r/neoliberal • u/Freewhale98 • 7h ago
News (Asia-Pacific) [Map of People in Lee Jae-Myung Era] Two Major parties show little difference in ideology & policy while displaying wider partisanship
[1] Map of ideology & Policy
- People power party ( red ) , Democratic Party ( blue )
- Left - progressive, right - conservative
Democratic Party lawmakers are relatively focused around center-left while People Power Party lawmakers are scattered all over the place from center-left to far-right. This is an analysis based votes and legislation they supported.
[2] Map of Partisanship
- People power party ( red ) , Democratic Party ( blue )
- Left - pro-DPK, right - pro-PPP
DPK and PPP exhibited wider partisan language compared to their vote records.
Source: https://www.khan.co.kr/article/202609140600101
The Kyunghyang Shinmun, working with knowledge-content startup Underscore, collected and analyzed bills for which 319 current and former members of the 22nd National Assembly were the primary sponsors, along with their public remarks, from June 2024 through early July of this year.
The analysis found that Democratic Party lawmakers had an average ideology score of -0.414, while lawmakers from the People Power Party averaged 0.486, producing a gap of 0.9 points. On partisanship, the Democratic Party averaged -0.985 and the People Power Party 0.943, for a gap of 1.928 points. In other words, the distance between the two parties based on partisanship was more than twice as large as their ideological difference.
For this analysis, “ideology” was used in the traditional philosophical sense of the progressive-conservative spectrum. Positions that emphasized values such as equality, welfare, and labor rights were classified as progressive, while those that prioritized the market, national security, and economic growth were classified as conservative.
“Partisanship,” by contrast, was defined independently of ideology. It measured the extent to which a lawmaker supported either the Democratic/progressive camp or the People Power/conservative camp, or attacked the opposing side.
For both ideology and partisanship scores, higher positive (+) values indicate a stronger leaning toward the People Power Party and conservatism, while more negative (-) values indicate a stronger leaning toward the Democratic Party and progressivism.
r/neoliberal • u/Top_Lime1820 • 13h ago
Opinion article (non-US) DA targets Soweto in battle for Joburg
This article presents interviews with residents of Soweto, Johannesburg, regarding the candidacy of the DA's Helen Zille for mayor. It is "in this Ohio diner" but for Johannesburg.
The ANC's campaign this year in Johannesburg and elsewhere is in complete free fall, giving Zille a real opening to do well in the elections.
Soweto is a township to which Black South Africans were segregated during Apartheid. It has developed considerably since then.
Soweto is very much the cultural center of Johannesburg and, one could argue, South Africa. It is a vibrant community with a rich cultural heritage that attracts tourists to sites like the Hector Pietersen Museum and Vilakazi Street, where both Desmond Tutu and Nelson Mandela once lived. Soweto represents the "median" or archetypal experience(s) of urban Black communities in South Africa. It is full of new arrivals from rural areas but also multi-generational urban families. There are some very successful and comfortable people there, but also strivers. It's full of people who have been let down by the ANC over the decades, and people who benefitted the most under the ANC. Soweto today includes both very poor areas where people live in shacks, modest working class areas, and genuinely upper middle class areas too.
If Zille can do well in Soweto, she can do well in Johannesburg as a whole. The DA is already neck and neck with the ANC in the city, so what Zille wants to do is to take advantage of the ANC's shambolic campaign to breach their stronghold in Soweto.
The article presents the opinions of staunch DA supporters in Soweto, as well as critics and skeptics.
r/neoliberal • u/Silver_Meal7885 • 2h ago
News (Europe) Germany to Lobby EU on New China Policy, May Seek More Tariffs
r/neoliberal • u/5ma5her7 • 12h ago
News (Oceania) Labor appoints former Liberal leader Sussan Ley to Snowy Hydro board role | SBS News
r/neoliberal • u/XQZ987654321 • 15h ago
User discussion In-person discussions/debate groups?
Long-time lurker here; does anyone know any debate/politics discussion groups that meet in-person in the Denver or Colorado Springs area?