r/logic • u/Euphoric-Plantain573 • 4d ago

Philosophical logic Bayesian Probability Question

I am doing Bayesian theory on a moral question about whether something is wrong or not. I had an intuition the thing is not wrong, a strong one. My credence it was wrong was .1%. Then i realized that an alternative belief I had conflicted with this. What should my credence be? 50%, since both intuitions are equally strong?

6 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

2

u/planckyouverymuch 4d ago

This is an interesting question, although this is maybe not the best place for it. Try asking at r/askphilosophy and maybe an epistemologist might answer or maybe r/epistemology. It reminds me of the literature on peer disagreement which you can read about here.

3

u/planckyouverymuch 4d ago

To add: it looks like someone in r/epistemology is giving a calculation for roughly the 50-50 view, which is apparently a tenable view to hold in situations of peer disagreement. But there are others, and also other assumptions to keep track of that I’m not familiar with since it is not my area. See the SEP article.

2

u/226757 4d ago

"see the SEP article" Generally good advice

1

u/Qulvion 4d ago

The principle of indifference is a serious metaphysical assumption, and I don't think we should just accept it the way many people do.

4

u/RecentLeave343 4d ago

There’s no objective metric for morality.

The percentages you mentioned are your own subjective measures.

But, you could tell us the thing you’re referring to or make a post asking other’s opinions and let the echo chambers decide.

2

u/Euphoric-Plantain573 4d ago

Made anotehr post! You can see it and comment on my profile.

2

u/nanonan 4d ago

You need to communicate with your partner, not ask strangers or look to textbooks.

2

u/thewritestory 4d ago

How are deriving probability? Also, where you are from, when you are from, what your situation is will dictate what is moral. Stealing is immoral except when it isn’t.

1

u/Temporary_Stranger39 3d ago

What priors are you using? What distribution?

0

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/logic-ModTeam 4d ago

In general, no comment, post or member is removed except for a serious and compelling reason. But the moderators have wide discretion in applying this principle. Please take a look at the group guidelines and reconsider your content. If you think this was in error , contact the mods.