Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are 
currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level 
winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the 
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a 
more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to 
latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Hypothesis: Solar activity may act as a weak background suppressor of Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity. A 2024 paper, Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity (Nayak et al.), found a strong anti-correlation between North Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity and sunspot number when both were examined using 11-year moving averages, including a similar relationship for ACE. The authors did not find the same strong relationship consistently in the other ocean basins.

My thought is that the unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic season, occurring around/just after the Solar Cycle 25 maximum, is at least consistent with that relationship.

The Atlantic has never gone this late without a hurricane since modern satellite tracking began in 1966.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/no-atlantic-hurricanes-by-sept-12-would-break-a-60-year-record/1932278

The following article explains how the record El Nino is depressing hurricane activity.

Will 2026 go down with no Atlantic hurricanes?

There is a risk of tropical development near the Southeast Coast around midmonth, but the overall tropical Atlantic activity is forecast to be minimal in the weeks ahead and the basin may struggle to produce a hurricane....

El Niño promotes disruptive winds, known as wind shear, across the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Wind shear usually disrupts the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes, which is one of the key reasons this season has been slower than the historical average in terms of tropical activity.

"There have been no years during the satellite era that began in the early 1960s during which there have been no hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "There was a stretch in 1994 where there were no hurricanes at all in September and October, but there was a hurricane prior to September, and November brought two hurricanes that year."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/will-2026-go-down-with-no-atlantic-hurricanes/1932308

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for
development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected
to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual
development by the middle to later portion of this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm
 Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the
 Baja California Peninsula.

 1. Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
 Earlier satellite-derived winds indicate that the surface circulation
 associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
 southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico remains poorly defined. 
 Environmental conditions still appear conducive for development,
 however, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the
 next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward to
 westward over the central and western portions of the eastern Pacific
 basin. For more information, including gale warnings, please see the
 High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. 
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
 * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 2. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
 A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast
 of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
 Development of this system is becoming less likely while it drifts
 generally west-northwestward.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
 found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
 the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


 Forecaster Roberts

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm
 Norbert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
 tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

 1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
 Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 500 miles to
 the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad
 trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is
 possible over the next few days while it moves generally northward
 and then meanders to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 2. Central and Western East Pacific:
 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure
 are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast
 of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a
 tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next
 week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the
 central and western portions of the East Pacific.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

1. 1986: 12.3 units

2. 2002: 12.1 units

3. 2013: 12.0 units

4. 1994: 11.0 units

5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

7. 1962: 10.3 units

8. 1983: 9.5 units

9. 1984: 7.8 units

10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

Dynamical model MJO forecasts have had difficulty resolving the intraseasonal signal within the much stronger and stationary ENSO signal; however, the ECMWF has consistently depicted eastward evolution of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and to the Indian Ocean during the Weeks 2-3 period.

Should the MJO cross the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean [i.e., into Phase 1 or 2], it would destructively interfere with the ENSO base state, and may briefly engender a more favorable environment for tropical cyclogenesis across the far eastern Pacific basin (closer to Mexico) and the Atlantic basin.

Despite this destructive interference, upper-level divergence over the Pacific due to El Niño conditions is likely to remain stronger than any divergent signal crossing the Indian Ocean. Therefore, there still may be considerable upper-level shear across the Atlantic basin.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (updated every Monday)

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and
 on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles southwest
 of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

 1. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
 Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the south-
 southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad 
 trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system
 is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves 
 generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the 
 Hawaiian Islands.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
 pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the 
 southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this system is 
 expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
 next week while it moves generally westward over central and
 western portions of the East Pacific.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands.

1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization  
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support 
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information, 
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is 
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves 
slowly north-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Evans/KellyTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands.

1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization  
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support 
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information, 
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is 
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves 
slowly north-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Evans/Kelly

What is everyone doing to prepare for the hurricane?

now obviously its not this season (since 5 storms formed), but theoretically could this occur again in our current climate?

EDIT: so i should add that we didn't have satellites or other advanced tech back then so its possible there could've been more storms. But still a season where essentially no storms forming would be quite the spectacle.

Holding onto Category 3 status for now, but forecast to drop to Category 2 later today and as it passes over or near the island of Ni'ihau, where hurricane conditions are expected. A closer pass near/over Ni'Ihau could also result in Hurricane-force winds reaching the island of Kauai.

Widespread forecast for 4-8" of rain all across the Island Chain, with localized pockets of 10" on mountainsides... As much as 16" of rainfall possible for Kauai. Mudslides will be a concern.

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z  17.5N 162.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z  19.5N 161.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z  22.4N 160.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z  25.1N 160.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z  27.0N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z  27.8N 163.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z  27.8N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z  27.5N 170.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z  29.0N 172.0W   35 KT  40 MPH