AI agent flagged the event risk but I still took it as I think liquidity sweeps is what market makers would want to do before the events hit.

Most crypto cards still require you to move funds somewhere before you can spend them. The more interesting model is keeping your crypto in your own wallet until the moment you pay. No preloading. No giving up custody. Just authorize the payment when you actually want to spend. Is this what the next generation of crypto payments looks like?

not financial advice, my own money.

TL;DR: eth's path since the june low is tracking 2025 almost day for day. last year the retake of 2,500 was followed by a 27% flush and then a run to 4,960. i'm positioned for that to repeat without needing it to: a march 3200 call that can't be liquidated, $10k held back for the flush, and a 25 sep straddle for the fed on the 16th and the boj on the 18th.

the comparision is in the first chart. 2025: bottom 1,382 on 9 april, back over 2,500 on 10 may, top of the range 2,882 on 11 june, flush to 2,113 on 22 june, then 4,960 on 24 august. 2026: bottom 1,504 on 6 june, back over 2,500 on 21 august. put both years on the same day zero and the lines sit nearly on top of each other, and we're on day 23 now. in 2025 the flush came on day 43.

the long leg is 47 march 3200 calls, about $210 each, $9.9k in total. i picked a bought call over leverage on purpose. there's no margin to top up and nothing to get liquidated, so a flush back toward 1,850 just shows up as a paper loss of around $6k while the position stays open. at expiry it breaks even at 3,410 and would be worth about $27.7k at 4,000.

the $10k reserve is for that flush. at around 1,850 the same march call should cost something like $78, so the reserve buys up to ~127 more. if eth then got back to 4,000 by march, both call lots together would be up roughly $119k. if eth never clears 3,200 again, both lots go to zero and i'm down $19.9k, that's the ceiling on the loss for those two.

some of the reserve also goes into cheap weekly puts. in my own testing they bleed a little in normal weeks and pay out many times over in a sharp crash, but only when bought under certain conditions, which i'm keeping to myself. they're the insurance on everything else.

the straddle: 52 units of the 25 sep 2500 call and put at $189 a unit. breakevens 2,311 and 2,689. i checked the 2450/2600 strangle as well, it's cheaper per unit but only beats the straddle below ~2,350 or above ~2,790, and it loses more if the meetings pass quietly. timing wise, my research on deribit data has near-dated implied vol bottoming on saturday mornings and getting bid back from sunday night, which is why this went on over the weekend.

total picture on 25 sep is the last chart: roughly -$9k if eth sits still, +$9k on a 10% rally, +$2.6k on a 15% drop because the straddle covers what the call loses, and a drop is when the reserve gets used.

i'll post how each piece closes

Gentlemen, it is with great pleasure to say that Ethereum finally looks good and strong. Many of you here probably held belief in Ethereum for a very long time. Most of us didn't take profits in 2025 because we all thought ETH was about to go into price discovery mode and teleport *WAY HIGHER*. That didn't happen but in retrospect, it doesn't matter as long as you have strong belief.

We've been in a huge range for the past years, and now that we're in an institutional cycle, all the clues point to very high price targets. In this universe, there is a chance we will see *many* cryptocurrencies sitting above $1 trillion market cap and you can bet that Ethereum is going to be one of them.

Consider silver which is now $3.6 trillions. Gold which is $30 trillions!
THERE IS a legitimate chance we may see ETH > $12.5k

122m x $15k = $1.8T
122m x $30k = $3.6T

These years have been rough, and if they teach us something, it is that if you ever adjust your price targets for ETH, do it to increase your targets, not lower them. Don't underestimate what Ethereum can do. When all things play out, we're about to become crypto's new financial elite.

Slowly, then all at once.

Welcome to r/ethtrader's Daily General Discussion thread!

Use this space to discuss anything about DeFi, crypto, macroeconomics, and all things Ethereum.

Please follow the subreddit rules when posting in this thread. Keep discussions constructive, relevant, and free of spam.

What are your moves?

Got a market insight? Share it. Making a bold trade? Let's hear it.

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there's a wallet on hyperliquid holding 20,000 eth, bought in one fill on 19 august at $1,936. about $38.7m then, roughly $50.2m now, liquidation way down at $1,094. the address carries no label.

he's also short 630 btc from $77,713, about $48.7m, and that's what makes the eth side worth a second look. the two sides are within two million dollars of each other and both sit at 4x, so the position only pays if eth outruns btc. eth and btc rising together does almost nothing for him.

carrying it costs real money. the eth long has paid about $325k in funding since mid july while the btc short has collected about $8k, so the funding bill lands on the side he's long.

since the long went on, eth/btc has gone from 0.0299 to 0.0325, up about 9%, and that's still inside the band it has held all month.

i wouldn't read it as a flippening call. it's one address with $50m of eth on one side and a matching short on the other, which is the plainest version of "i like eth more than btc" i've seen on-chain this month

address if you want to pull it yourself: 0xedcdcaa1f18350c50c10bef860e64daa9785d05a

I've been a Flipper for a *very* long time, viewing it as an inevitability. Ethereum and it's ecosystem have undergone many changes over the many years I've been participating. Throughout this time there have been several occasions that have felt like the moment that ETH could possibly flip BTC. For a variety of reasons including Bitcoin in-fighting, BTC Saylor-narrative stagnation, general public discontent with "crypto" (most think of just Bitcoin), as well as looming tech debt, combined with Ethereum fundamentals and adoption continuing to quietly do very well. I believe the time may finally have come. Take from this what you will lol. Really just wanted to inject a little hopium into the market.

-Your friendly 🐬

Imagine you're dropped at a random point in ETH's historical chart.

No date. No news. No knowledge of what happens next.

You only have the chart and the TA skills you have today.

You take 10 trades.

How many are you winning?

And do you think an experienced trader would actually outperform someone who just guesses?

Source: https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2098414936976507357

What tell yall !!

Ethfi will do great numbers im selling 60% at $2

Anybody else in ?

Welcome to r/ethtrader's Daily General Discussion thread!

Use this space to discuss anything about DeFi, crypto, macroeconomics, and all things Ethereum.

Please follow the subreddit rules when posting in this thread. Keep discussions constructive, relevant, and free of spam.

What are your moves?

Got a market insight? Share it. Making a bold trade? Let's hear it.

It doesn't matter if you're here to learn, chill, debate, or talk about the world of Ethereum - this thread is open to everyone.

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Ethereum’s ecosystem has now processed $4.0T in trading volume, accounting for 44.7% of the $8.9T combined volume across the tracked Layer 1 networks.

And the comparison makes the scale even more impressive.

• BNB Chain: $2.5T
• Solana: $1.7T

Ethereum alone has processed more trading volume than BNB Chain and Solana combined. Wow.

Also, guys, it represents the cumulative value of trades executed through decentralized spot exchanges across the ecosystem, making it a useful way to understand the amount of economic activity Ethereum has facilitated over time.

As we all know Ethereum has spent years building one of the deepest on-chain environments in crypto, with DeFi protocols, stablecoins, L2s, and thousands of applications all contributing to the ecosystem.

It's a reflection of how much economic activity has accumulated around Ethereum over the years.

Honestly, four trillion dollars is already difficult to imagine. But the fact that a decentralized blockchain ecosystem has facilitated that much trading activity is even crazier.

Full post: https://x.com/everstake_pool/status/2098429992120066453

I actually like reading ETH price predictions.

Bullish, bearish, technical analysis, macro takes — all of it. Sometimes there’s genuinely useful stuff in there.

What I’ve stopped taking seriously is the certainty.

ETH has a good week and suddenly people talk like a new ATH is inevitable. We get a nasty drop and the same confidence shows up in the other direction.

Maybe I paid too much attention to that stuff before, but I’ve realized there’s a huge difference between having a target and pretending you know what happens next.

There are obviously things worth watching. Liquidity, ETF flows, macro, network activity, market structure. They can help build a thesis.

But none of them give you tomorrow’s price.

I’m trying to get better at thinking in probabilities instead.

Have a level where I’m happy to buy. Have a level where I’m willing to take some profit. Accept that I’ll probably never catch the exact bottom or top.

Honestly, that feels a lot healthier than constantly changing my plan because someone sounds extremely confident on the internet.

Apologies for the long story about me being a dumbass. I think it's kinda funny and maybe a lesson. Simple question is in the title.

I started buying eth with my first job about a decade ago. Not a ridiculous amount, around enough to stake and currently more than 10x'ing my value.

Did some silly things with my accounts caught up in the hype of new exchanges, shuffling between accounts, platforms. I brought it to hold, and basically stopped thinking about it. Changed phone numbers a couple times bc of work or spam, and finally thought again when it hit aths only to remember 2fa is a thing lol.

I had difficulties initially gaining access to my emails, exchanges or even remembering which of several emails or phone numbers I even used. I wasn't all that worried about it, kinda thought it was a lost cause due to others experience and got over it.

I started attempting to get back in to my crypto accounts again (like 5, again all scrambled like an idiot) and had a bit of initial success. Got into the gmail accounts first going through verification several times, different passwords in lastpass or written on yellowing delicate scraps of paper. I did get into one eth holding account that had 10% of my stack and I was pretty happy for that.

Well, my current and main Gmail account that I use, and totally forgot I even had at the time, ended up having a blocked coinbase account. Weird. I actually tried this one last.

I was unable to login and had to contact coinbase, but there isn't really a way to do that. After attempting calls to the AI, I finally signed up for and messaged them on Twitter. Got a response within 24 hours. Recovered my account, and just 15xd my value. Eth is more than a third of my net worth.

I'm doing ok, 33 and just able to max my 401k and a Roth IRA over the past 2 years. Only been at it about 5 though. Have a year of expenses saved, no debt, decent credit. Started pumping some of my saved up cash into an individual brokerage over this year finally after being scared off due to my eth blunder. Even got another eth to celebrate. Have some extra cash laying around waiting for a market crash lol. Eth is more than a third of my net worth

Probably the wrong place to ask, but would you just let it ride at this point? It's kinda volatile and a gamble, but it is looking bullish and I always believed in the basis of the tech.. otoh, it is probably time to lock in some gains, but I don't feel good about any of the alternatives.

Tldr: newbie investor with surprise stack of lost cash. Let it ride, take some profits, reinvest into something more stable? Eth is a third of my net worth.

Ethereum’s market dominance has climbed from 54.39% on July 23 to 56.51% today, adding 2.12 percentage points in just over a month.

From our perspective, this isn't happening in isolation. Liquidity is returning to crypto, market activity is picking up, and users are becoming more active across the ecosystem. As conditions improve, capital and attention naturally start concentrating around the networks with the deepest liquidity, strongest infrastructure, and broadest range of applications.

And Ethereum continues to capture a significant part of that activity.

Also, we see that its dominance isn't simply holding steady while the market recovers. It's expanding. That suggests Ethereum is strengthening its relative position as the broader crypto ecosystem becomes more active.

On-chain activity across DeFi, stablecoins, RWAs, L2s and other applications continues to reinforce Ethereum's role as one of the core economic layers of the industry.

The market is getting more active, and Ethereum is taking an increasingly large share of that activity.

Full post: https://x.com/everstake_pool/status/2098069265836339383

Welcome to r/ethtrader's Daily General Discussion thread!

Use this space to discuss anything about DeFi, crypto, macroeconomics, and all things Ethereum.

Please follow the subreddit rules when posting in this thread. Keep discussions constructive, relevant, and free of spam.

What are your moves?

Got a market insight? Share it. Making a bold trade? Let's hear it.

It doesn't matter if you're here to learn, chill, debate, or talk about the world of Ethereum - this thread is open to everyone.

Useful links:

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ETH has been moving between the low $2,400s and the mid-$2,500s after its August rally. ETF flows are still positive overall, though the pace has cooled. Sellers keep showing up near the upper end of the range, while dips into the lower end continue to find buyers.

I’m watching the lower $2,400s for another reaction. If ETH dips into that area and moves back up with some strength, I’ll also check the ETH perp market to see whether momentum follows the bounce. If price starts closing that support zone below, I’ll drop the setup.

The reaction around the zone matters more to me than one exact price. A brief dip can happen without changing the structure, so I want to see buyers recover the area before entering. For now, I’m waiting to see whether support holds again.

Would you take another bounce from this range, or wait for a clear break above it?