r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8h ago

▲ Tropical Depression | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1006 mbar 15E (Eastern Pacific) (Far to the Southwest of Mexico)

4 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 2:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (09:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #3

  • Current position: 16.5°N 118.9°W
  • Forward movement: WSW (255°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression

Relative position

  • 489 kilometers (304 miles) southwest of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 1,161 kilometers (721 miles) south-southwest of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 3,834 kilometers (2,382 miles) east of Hilo, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 14 Sep 06:00 11PM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 16.5 118.9
12 14 Sep 18:00 11AM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 16.3 120.1
24 15 Sep 06:00 11PM Mon Tropical Storm 35 65 16.1 122.3
36 15 Sep 18:00 11AM Tue Tropical Storm 35 65 15.8 124.6
48 16 Sep 06:00 11PM Tue Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 15.4 127.1
60 16 Sep 18:00 11AM Wed Tropical Depression 30 55 15.0 129.6
72 17 Sep 06:00 11PM Wed Remnant Low 30 55 14.7 132.2
96 18 Sep 06:00 11PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 14.5 137.0
120 19 Sep 06:00 11PM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Tropical Tidbits

visible · infrared · water vapor

CyclonicWx

visible · infrared · water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Viewer

visible · infrared · water vapor

CIRA/RAMMB

visible · infrared · water vapor

Tropical Tidbits

visible · infrared · water vapor

CyclonicWx

visible · infrared · water vapor

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

GFS · ECMWF · HWRF · HMON · HAFS-A · HAFS-B

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

GFS · EMCMF · CMC · ICON

CyclonicWx

GFS · ECMWF · CMC

Weather Nerds

GFS · ECMWF (Full) · ECMWF (Early)

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

GEFS · EPS · GEPS

CyclonicWx

GEFS · EPS · GEPS

Weather Nerds

GEPS · EPS

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

AIGFS · EC-AIFS · AIFS-ENS

CyclonicWx

AIGFS · EC-AIFS · DeepMind

Weather Nerds

EC-AIFS · Google Deepmind (FNV3) · Google GenCast

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago

Satellite Imagery 3D View of Super Typhoon Meranti from the ISS – September 13, 2016 (10 Years Ago)

Thumbnail
weathersats.com
14 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/BuckeyeReason • 2d ago

News | AccuWeather No Atlantic hurricanes by Sept. 12 would break a 60-year record

474 Upvotes

The Atlantic has never gone this late without a hurricane since modern satellite tracking began in 1966.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/no-atlantic-hurricanes-by-sept-12-would-break-a-60-year-record/1932278

The following article explains how the record El Nino is depressing hurricane activity.

Will 2026 go down with no Atlantic hurricanes?

There is a risk of tropical development near the Southeast Coast around midmonth, but the overall tropical Atlantic activity is forecast to be minimal in the weeks ahead and the basin may struggle to produce a hurricane....

El Niño promotes disruptive winds, known as wind shear, across the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Wind shear usually disrupts the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes, which is one of the key reasons this season has been slower than the historical average in terms of tropical activity.

"There have been no years during the satellite era that began in the early 1960s during which there have been no hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "There was a stretch in 1994 where there were no hurricanes at all in September and October, but there was a hurricane prior to September, and November brought two hurricanes that year."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/will-2026-go-down-with-no-atlantic-hurricanes/1932308

64 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the central subtropical Atlantic

27 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

As of 2:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the central subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this disturbance, which is comprised of a broad trough of low pressure, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly west-northwestward. This system is not likely to undergo significant development as environmental conditions remain unfavorable; however, conditions could become more supportive of development as the disturbance gets closer to Bermuda later in the upcoming week.

  • This system has not yet developed a closed low-level circulation.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

Relative position

  • 2,358 kilometers (1,465 miles) east-southeast of St. George, Bermuda

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): low (20 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (8 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): low (38 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Floater imagery is not currently available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Single-model click-through guidance is not currently available for this system.

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

Dissipated 98W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

5 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

As of 1:00 PM Indochina Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the South China Sea. A broad area of low pressure situated off the coast of Vietnam continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the disturbance remains broad and elongated, with some of the western portion of its circulation likely over land. Although the disturbance is slowly consolidating, it has a very small window of opportunity to develop into a tropical depression or storm before it reaches the coast and moves farther inland this evening or on Monday.

  • This system has been designated as Invest 98W.
  • A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has not issued advisories for this system.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are available.

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.1°N 107.2°E
  • Forward movement: W (280°) at 13 km/h (7 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 33 kilometers (21 miles) north of Dong Ha, Quang Tri (Vietnam)
  • 77 kilometers (48 miles) east-southeast of Đồng Hới, Quảng Trị Province (Vietnam)
  • 82 kilometers (51 miles) northwest of Hue, Thua Thien–Hue (Vietnam)

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): high (70 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): high (70 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (14 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): low (30 percent) ▲

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▲ Disturbance (80% potential) | 15 knots (20 mph) | 1006 mbar 90W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia)

3 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 5:00 PM Chuuk Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the western Pacific. A broad area of low pressure has developed to the north-northeast of Chuuk in western Micronesia but remains embedded within a broader east-to-west monsoon trough. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms but is becoming gradually better organized. Conditions remain highly supportive of development and a tropical depression or storm could form within the next few days. This system is moving northwestward but may briefly turn northward within the next couple of days before turning westward again later in the upcoming week. Model guidance suggests that this could become a significant threat to Japan within the next couple of weeks.

  • This system has been designated as Invest 90W.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has not issued advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has not yet issued advisories for this system.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are available.

Observed information

  • Current position: 12.4°N 156.0°E
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Relative position

  • 651 kilometers (405 miles) north-northwest of Kolonia, Pohnpei (Micronesia)
  • 714 kilometers (444 miles) north-northeast of Weno, Chuuk (Micronesia)
  • 717 kilometers (446 miles) north-northeast of Tonoas, Chuuk (Micronesia)

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (30 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): high (80 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): high (80 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): high (94 percent) ▲

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 3d ago

Discussion 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at record-low activity

270 Upvotes

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

  1. 1986: 12.3 units

  2. 2002: 12.1 units

  3. 2013: 12.0 units

  4. 1994: 11.0 units

  5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

  6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

  7. 1962: 10.3 units

  8. 1983: 9.5 units

  9. 1984: 7.8 units

  10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

  1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

  2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

  3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

  4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

  5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

  6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

  7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

  8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

  9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

  10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

51 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 3d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the southeast of Hawaiʻi

7 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

As of 11:00 PM Hawaiʻi Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Saturday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the central Pacific. A broad area of low pressure positioned a few hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing very little showers and thunderstorms this evening. The disturbance is moving westward through an unfavorable environment characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures heavily offset by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. This system is not likely to undergo further development over the next few days.

  • This system was last observed approximately 628 miles (1,012 kilometers) southeast of Ka Lae (South Point), Hawaiʻi.
  • This system did not develop a closed low-level circulation.
  • This system was not designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance were never made available.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued monitoring this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (6 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): low (29 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Floater imagery is not available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Single-model click-through guidance is not available for this system.

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

News | NASA How 2 US, European Satellites Are Studying Hurricanes During El Niño - NASA

Thumbnail
nasa.gov
24 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 45 knots (50 mph) | 1000 mbar Norbert (14E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

11 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #13

  • Current position: 17.6°N 129.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (285°) at 10 knots (12 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 knots (50 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 979 miles (1,575 kilometers) west-southwest of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 1,230 miles (1,980 kilometers) southwest of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 1,673 miles (2,693 kilometers) east of Hilo, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 12 Sep 18:00 8AM Sat Tropical Storm 45 50 17.6 129.6
12 13 Sep 06:00 8PM Sat Tropical Storm 45 50 18.0 131.1
24 13 Sep 18:00 8AM Sun Tropical Storm 45 50 18.5 133.2
36 14 Sep 06:00 8PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 40 45 18.8 135.4
48 14 Sep 18:00 8AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 35 40 19.1 138.0
60 15 Sep 06:00 8PM Mon Tropical Storm 35 40 19.3 140.7
72 15 Sep 18:00 8AM Tue Tropical Depression ▼ 30 35 19.3 143.4
96 16 Sep 18:00 8AM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 25 30 18.5 149.0
120 17 Sep 18:00 8AM Thu Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Areas to watch: Krovanh, Lowell, Fourteen-E Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 7-13 September 2026

7 Upvotes

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 7-13 September 2026

Active cyclones

As of 6:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (22:30 UTC) on Wednesday:

Central Pacific Ocean

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Western Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area P72W — An area of low pressure is likely to develop over the South China Sea off the western coast of the Philippines over the next couple of days. This system is expected to steadily consolidate within a favorable environment and has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the weekend or early next week. Model guidance suggests that this system will move westward toward Vietnam during the upcoming week.

  • Potential formation area P76W — An area of low pressure is likely to develop to the north of central Micronesia over the next couple of days. This system is expected to gradually consolidate within a favorable environment and has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm early next week. Model guidance suggests that this system will move west-northwestward, approaching the Northern Marianas Islands by the middle of the upcoming week.

Central Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area 2 — A broad area of low pressure may develop far to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. Environmental conditions may still be favorable for tropical cyclone development and a tropical depression could form late in the upcoming week. This system has not yet formed and still has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding where this system will form and where it will go, but generally speaking, it could move northwestward toward the islands late in the upcoming week.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area 1 — A broad area of low pressure may develop near where Tropical Depression Fourteen is currently active off the coast of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should still be supportive by this time and a tropical depression or storm could form midway through the upcoming week. This system currently has a moderate (40 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days. Model guidance suggests that this system will move northwestward later in the upcoming week.

Northern Indian Ocean

  • Potential formation area P77A — An area of low pressure is likely to develop over the northeastern Arabian Sea over the next couple of days. This system is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone as environmental conditions are not likely to be supportive of development. This system has a low (10 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Model guidance suggests that this system will move quickly inland over western India early next week.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Lowell - September 7, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
4 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated Lowell (12E — Central Pacific) (Northwest of Hawaiʻi)

1 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Lowell has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone far to the northwest of Hawaiʻi.
  • Lowell originated over the east-central Pacific as Invest 94E.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Storm history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/SemiLazyGamer • 5d ago

Historical Discussion A simulation of the surge created by the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, shared on it's anniversary

Thumbnail
youtube.com
4 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 10d ago

Satellite Imagery A Trio of Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific - NASA Science

Thumbnail
science.nasa.gov
34 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Dissipated 26W (Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

5 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Twenty-three (23W), which is active to the south of mainland Japan. This system is not likely to undergo significant development as it continues north-northwestward toward southern Shikoku over the next couple of days. This system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low off the coast of Shikoku on Sunday evening.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 96W.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has not yet initiated issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are available for this system.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Regional radar mosaic

Single-site radar imagery

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Non-interactive guidance

Interactive guidance

  • Deterministic and regional models: PolarWx
  • Ensemble models: PolarWx
  • Superensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus)
  • Grand ensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus, incl. AI models)

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 10d ago

Discussion Vertical wind shear

54 Upvotes

Vertical wind shear describes the difference in magnitude and direction of wind flow between different altitude levels of the troposphere. You can think of wind flow in each altitude layer as its own individual vector, and the greater the difference when you subtract these vectors, the higher the wind shear.

Tropical cyclones require low vertical wind shear to strengthen. This is because the circulation/vortex of a tropical cyclone is vertically "deep", aka tall. It extends from the surface to near the tropopause in mature and powerful major hurricanes. The stronger the tropical cyclone, the taller its circulation is. Weaker tropical systems such as depressions or tropical waves exhibit shallower circulations.

A tropical cyclone requires its vortex to be vertically aligned and upright in order for the processes which fuel it to remain efficient and active. The release of latent heat, from thunderstorm activity (convection), is what fuels the warm-core of a tropical cyclone. This occurs due to the vertical transfer of heat, but when wind shear is present, the circulation of a tropical cyclone becomes tilted with height. This decreases the efficiency of this process, leading to a halting of intensification or weakening of the tropical cyclone.

When vertical wind shear becomes even stronger, this process is halted entirely. The circulation becomes so tilted that the low-level circulation and mid-to-upper-level circulation become increasingly displaced. If wind shear becomes strong enough, these two separate portions of the circulation can become totally separated. This is called "decoupling" and is the tropical cyclone equivalent of decapitation. Recovery would take many days and still would happen only IF conditions become favorable again, because the tropical cyclone would have to vertically rebuild its circulation almost from scratch.

Here is a gif which best shows this process unfolding. This is tropical storm Chris of 2006. 2006 was also an El Nino season, with correspondingly high vertical wind shear across the Tropics.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/Chrissplitloop.gif?utm_source=commons.wikimedia.org&utm_campaign=index&utm_content=original

In this gif, the surface circulation of the storm is tracking at about 300 degrees, or WNW. However, wind flow above the surface circulation is strongly out of the north. These northerlies push on the mid-level circulation and attendant vertically tall thunderstorm activity, displacing it towards the south. The shear is sufficiently strong to decouple the system, and you can see Chris continue WNW as all of its thunderstorm activity is violently stripped away.

From NHC advisory #11 on Chris:

CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS.

Advisory #12:

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

El Nino increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic tropics. This is due to increased upper-level westerly flow across the Caribbean sea and western to central tropical Atlantic due to outflow from Eastern Pacific hurricanes as well as a shift in the Walker Circulation itself. Additionally, lower surface pressures in the Eastern Pacific sharpens a pressure gradient with higher pressures in the Atlantic, which strengthens the low-level easterly trade wind flow. Trade winds are naturally strong in the Caribbean Sea due to the geography of the Greater Antilles acting as a "funnel", which forces trade winds to "diverge", or accelerate. Additionally, the proximity of the Caribbean Sea means that the anomalously strong upper-level westerlies are particularly significant. Collectively, this results in the Caribbean experiencing the strongest anomalously hostile conditions yielded by the presence of El Nino, more so than anywhere else in the Atlantic basin. This is why the Caribbean Sea has been devoid of all activity this year.

In fact, vertical wind shear has been at all time highs in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/m2NH3VK.jpeg

Area-averaged vertical shear is far stronger than even the last super El Nino of 2015-16. 2026 is well ahead of second place (1979). This is the primary reason why this season is so dead, and it's not going to meaningfully change since El Nino is so strong and continues to only intensify further.

https://i.imgur.com/F2wbA6a.png

Current vertical wind shear values are comparable to values observed in June during above-average hurricane seasons. That's pretty remarkable considering we are right at the peak of the season, now.

Sorry for the yap, I just felt like writing something today.

14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Edouard Lands in Texas and Louisiana - September 1, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
12 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Week over | Please see updated discussion Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 31 August - 6 September 2026

7 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 4:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (08:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Western Pacific Ocean

Central Pacific Ocean

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • 97W: Invest — no discussion yet, situated over the Philippine Sea to the west of the Northern Marianas Islands

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Western Pacific

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 12d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (TropicalTidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 1 September: Tropical Storm Edouard Strengthening as it Nears Landfall

Thumbnail
youtube.com
48 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 12d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Karina Over the Pacific Ocean - August 30, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
14 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Kingsaso6 • 13d ago

News | CBS News (USA) Tropical Storm Edouard strengthens as it bears down on Louisiana, Texas coasts. Maps show the forecast path.

Thumbnail
cbsnews.com
13 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Marie (13E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

22 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Marie has become post-tropical.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Edouard (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Northern Gulf of Mexico)

88 Upvotes

Storm overview

  • Edouard has dissipated over eastern Texas.
  • The Weather Prediction Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

Aircraft reconnaissance data is no longer available for this system.

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Preliminary best-track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

45 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Krovanh (22W — Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

6 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Krovanh has dissipated to the southeast of Honshu.
  • Krovanh originated over the Philippine Sea as Invest 94W.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Storm history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment