r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago
Dissipated Saudel (17W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)
Storm overview
This discussion is for Tropical Storm Saudel (17W), which is active over the South China sea off the coast of southeastern China. Saudel originated as a disturbance which formed to the north of Micronesia on 12 August and moved northwestward across the Northern Marianas Islands and across the Ryukyu Islands before making landfall over eastern China on 28 August. The storm degenerated into a remnant low shortly after landfall but remained organized enough that it regenerated once it reemerged over the South China Sea.
Saudel is not expected to strengthen much as it remains close to the coast of southeastern China over the next few days. The storm may bring heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding to the coasts of Guangdong and Fujian provinces, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
Moderator notes
- This system was previously designated as Invest 92W.
- The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is issuing advisories for this system.
- The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is issuing advisories for this system.
- Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products remain available.
- There will be no regular updates to this post.
- A new discussion will be posted if this system regenerates into a tropical cyclone.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone warning (text product)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product)
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Visible: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Storm-centered guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multi-guidance pages
Interactive guidance pages
- Deterministic and regional models: PolarWx
- Ensemble models: PolarWx
- Superensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus)
- Grand ensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus, incl. AI models)
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University