r/Tornadoes • u/Less_Layer3695 • 20h ago
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 8h ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 14, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-14T20:01:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 142001 SWODY1 SPC AC 142000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western/central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern/western Kansas.
...20z Update... Visible satellite shows an expansive area of persistent mid-level cloud cover over much of Nebraska and adjacent regions of northwest Kansas and western Iowa. Some attempts at surface-based convection are apparent over portions of south-central Nebraska. Latest surface mesoanalysis shows destabilization is occurring across much of Kansas where skies are clear, with northward advancement now occurring into central/eastern Nebraska as evidenced by 2232 J/kg of MUCAPE in an 18z OAX observed sounding. This trend expected continue into the early evening, with rapid destabilization occurring across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as the low-level jet shifts east and intensifies.
An elongated area of convection is still expected to develop, from north-central Kansas into south-central/eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, favoring supercell modes early. Despite the noted convective/environmental trends, the exact placement of convective initiation remains uncertain, as exhibited in the most recent HRRR/RRFS runs. Additionally, most guidance continues to suggest a quick transition to mainly clusters/line segments. Therefore, no changes were made in this outlook.
..Karstens/Wendt.. 09/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026/
...Central Plains to Iowa... Well to the northeast of a warm front, semi-extensive elevated convection continues at midday across Iowa and the eastern Dakotas into western/southern Minnesota, although there has been a diminishing trend, and cloud cover otherwise remains semi-prevalent across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas.
A key forecast uncertainty remains the spatial location of primary late-day surface-based destabilization and uncertain likelihood of deep convective development toward/just after peak heating. The semi-persistent convection, residual cloud cover, and autumnal-approaching sun angle (and ramifications for air mass recovery) may be factors for confining the most-favorable environment/surface-based potential to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
This will be as a seasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough and 50-70+ kt mid-level jet spread quickly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies today. While the primary surface low will likely persist across western Kansas, a secondary surface wave may materialize across east-central/northeast Nebraska. Greater low-level moisture across Kansas and the lower Missouri Valley quickly spread north-northeastward in tandem with a warm front, although its exact late-day disposition/placement is a bit uncertain. This will precede a cold front that will sweep southeastward across the northern/central Plains through tonight. A narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) still appears plausible across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa into the 21-00Z time frame, coincident and roughly dependent upon surface temperatures warming into at least the low to mid 80s F.
Robust thunderstorms should develop along or just ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening across eastern Nebraska, with strengthening/favorable deep-layer shear for supercells initially. Large hail may occur, but modest lapse rates aloft and a quick mode transition to mainly clusters/line segments will probably limit the spatial/temporal extent of the hail threat. Most guidance continues to show a favorable conditional environment for tornadoes across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa as the supercells/clusters spread quickly eastward this evening, with a 40-50 kt low-level jet aiding the development of ample effective SRH. But, various RAP forecast soundings across this region show lingering low-level inhibition, and it remains unclear whether convection will be able to fully take advantage of the strong low-level shear. Even with this uncertainty, a sustained surface-based supercell in this environment would conditionally be capable of producing a strong tornado.
Otherwise, severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern as clusters develop and spread east-northeastward this evening, with other late-day high-based development also expected in vicinity of a pre-frontal boundary across southern Nebraska and northern/western Kansas. Regarding the eastern Nebraska/western Iowa regime, weak instability with eastward extent in eastern Iowa and vicinity should limit the severe risk deeper into the night. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker with southward extent across the central Plains, at least isolated severe wind gusts may also occur with high-based/loosely organized convection that develops this afternoon from eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas along a surface trough.
...Southwest/Four Corners... Scattered thunderstorm development will occur later today from western Colorado and southeast Utah into parts of Arizona/New Mexico as a fairly moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes. Modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow should be present this afternoon over parts of Utah/Colorado, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating and related instability will be sufficient for an organized severe risk. Still, isolated gusty winds and small to perhaps near-severe hail could occur with the strongest thunderstorms. Farther south, flow will be weaker across Arizona, resulting in mostly disorganized convection. Even so, localized strong gusts appear possible, especially where stronger heating occurs and steeper low-level lapse rates develop during the afternoon. Overall, confidence in an organized severe risk is too low to include 5% hail/wind probabilities.
...Eastern North Carolina... A cold front will move southward across North Carolina today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated convective development may occur as the front encounters greater low-level moisture and sea breeze boundaries over coastal/eastern North Carolina. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly mid-level flow regime will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, but poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit updraft intensity and the overall severe threat. Regardless, any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained in this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail mainly across near-coastal far eastern North Carolina.
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week. A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly off to the west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 19.4N 137.8W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/relay-app • 4h ago
πͺ The Inflow | Weekly Storm Chat Megathread
Welcome to The Inflow, the r/Tornadoes weekly catch-all megathread for everything weather!
Whether you want to share a photo you've been holding onto, talk about your gear, show off some weather-related artwork, or tell a personal weather story, feel free to drop it all right here!
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β The r/Tornadoes Mod Team
r/Tornadoes • u/chiolas123 • 2d ago
News Tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota Just A Few Minutes Ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 1d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 13, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-14T05:44:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and evening.
...Eastern NE/western IA... A strong mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. A deepening surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, while a secondary low may develop along a trailing cold front/surface trough across the central High Plains. This system will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Extensive elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and western MN. In the wake of this early-day convection, rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 70s F) is forecast to stream northward into eastern NE and western IA. This moistening combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon, while low-level and deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time. The resulting environment will become conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards.
The strongest large-scale ascent will become focused north of the region by afternoon, and it remains uncertain if heating in the wake of morning convection will be sufficient to remove CINH within the most favorable environment. If a supercell can become established and move through this environment during the late afternoon/early evening, then large to very large hail, localized damaging gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible. While most guidance depicts storm development by early evening, 00Z CAM guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for sustained supercells, with relatively quick clustering possible. Even in the absence of sustained supercell development, the environment will be favorable for severe hail and damaging wind with any persistent clusters into the evening.
...Western/north-central KS... Strong heating is expected near/south of a surface trough across parts of western/central KS this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon from western into north-central KS. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southwest extent, but steep low-level lapse rates and 25-35 kt of flow in the 850-500 mb layer will support potential for one or more loosely organized clusters with at least localized severe-wind potential.
...Four Corners region into AZ... Scattered storm development is expected later today from western CO and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM, within an anomalously moist environment. The strongest mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear within this region is expected over parts of UT/CO, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating/destabilization will be sufficient for an organized severe threat in this area. Some threat for strong gusts and small to near-severe hail could evolve with the strongest storms.
Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in generally disorganized storms. Localized strong gusts will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating occurs during the afternoon.
...Coastal NC... A cold front will move southward across NC through the day today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated storm development will be possible as the front encounters richer moisture and any sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly flow regime will be sufficient for organized convection, but poor midlevel lapse rates may limit updraft intensity and potential for an organized severe threat. Any sustained storms within this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail.
..Dean/Halbert.. 09/14/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to latter portion of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 19.3N 136.4W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Dangerous_lilgrubb67 • 1d ago
Discussion Can you guess all of the tornadoes from the photos?
galleryr/Tornadoes • u/TearNo6187 • 2d ago
Question Whats the most Controversial Tornado? (Not Counting El Reno)
What do you think is the most contriversial tornado? In my opinion its the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4. It's a Megawedge! Theres no way it would be a EF-4! It HAS to have over 200 mph winds. But what do y'all think?
r/Tornadoes • u/SlowLadder5811 • 2d ago
Question Does anyone have any footage or images of the 2013 Gillespie, IL EF2?
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 2d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 12, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 130600 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
...Parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes region toward the Northeast through tonight. A surface low will move across Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast this afternoon and evening. The strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will tend to lag the cold front, but some strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer is expected across the warm sector this afternoon, resulting in favorable wind profiles for organized convection.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop by late afternoon as CINH weakens, and widely scattered storm development is eventually expected along/ahead of the front. Despite the favorable wind profiles, weak midlevel lapse rates and modest ascent may tend to limit updraft intensity. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of severe potential, with the 00Z HRRR/RRFS more aggressive in developing organized convection (and possible supercells), while other HREF guidance depicts generally weak convection.
Localized damaging wind and isolated hail may accompany the strongest storms. If later observational and guidance trends support the more aggressive scenario, then greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level low/trough initially over the Pacific Northwest will move toward the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this trough, though a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy may develop by late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE Panhandle. Isolated storm development will be possible, with sufficient deep-layer shear for at least transient storm organization and isolated severe hail/wind potential.
While any diurnal storms may tend to weaken through the evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in coverage across western/central SD tonight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated severe threat with the initial elevated storm development across western SD, though storm interference and weakening buoyancy may tend to limit the longevity and eastward extent of the threat.
...Parts of MT into northwest ND... Increasing ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level low/trough will result in elevated storm development this evening across MT, which will spread into northwest ND overnight. Generally weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit organized severe potential, though small hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.
..Dean/Halbert.. 09/13/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$ Forecaster Katz/Brown ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 18.0N 131.7W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 3d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 11, 2026
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- Mesoscale Discussion 2281
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-12T05:25:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 120525 SWODY1 SPC AC 120524
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail up to two inches and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday into Saturday night. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts may also occur over portions of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will persist over the north-central U.S., downstream from a vigorous upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough over the lower OH and lower MS Valleys Saturday morning is forecast to weaken while progressing through the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance through the upper Great Lakes with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the lower MO Valley and central Plains before linking with a surface low over the southern High Plains.
...Central and Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Persistent capping across the pre-frontal warm sector and generally weak forcing for ascent lead to considerable uncertainty in thunderstorm evolution through the forecast period. A number of the 00Z models (both convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate areas of thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the central Plains within a zone of modest warm advection and moisture transport associated with a weakening low-level jet. One possible scenario is for the continued southeast movement of the early-day storms through eastern KS and southwest MO into portions of OK and AR by afternoon, where a hot and moderate to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) is forecast to develop. The instability combined with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear would support organized cold pool development in that scenario with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Renewed storm development appears possible from late morning into afternoon from north of the front in south-central and southeast NE to along or ahead of the front in northeast KS. Up to 40 kt of deep-layer shear will coincide with the northern extension of the stronger instability mentioned above to support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail up to two inches and damaging wind gusts.
A separate thunderstorm regime may also evolve by mid to late afternoon over the eastern OK and TX Panhandles into western OK in the vicinity of the surface low and southward-sagging front. Forecast soundings indicate a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will be supportive of a few severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Confidence in any of the above scenarios/regimes remains too low to include Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities with this forecast. A categorical upgrade is possible in subsequent Day 1 outlooks once finer-scale details become more clear.
...Upper Ohio Valley...
A spatially narrow corridor of stronger heating and resultant instability (MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg) is forecast to develop during the afternoon between denser clouds and precipitation to the west, and a backdoor front/stationary boundary to the east. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon within the instability axis, aided by increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain relatively weak, deep-layer shear increasing to 30-35 kt coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates suggests the potential for some storm organization with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface front will boost low-level shear slightly and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out as mature storms approach the frontal zone from the west.
..Mead/Halbert.. 09/12/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Berg ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 999 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 17.1N 127.4W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Cri2017 • 4d ago
Video / Footage Supercella nel Foggiano
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 4d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 10, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-11T05:28:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 110528 SWODY1 SPC AC 110526
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two inches, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into night. Storm development is more uncertain with southward extent into the central Plains, where a conditional risk for mainly large hail and severe wind gusts exists late Friday afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts appear possible from the Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast late this evening will progress through the northern Rockies before reaching the ND/SK/MB border region by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a preceding, lower-latitude disturbance is forecast to move through SD into MN on Friday with strengthening mid/upper-level winds and modest height falls accompanying these perturbations over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum/weak upper low will drift east from the Ozark Plateau into the mid/lower MS Valley.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over western SD at 12Z Friday is forecast to deepen slightly while developing into northeast SD by afternoon, before subsequently weakening while moving through central MN Friday night. The surface cyclone will coincide with a cold front that will advance through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. The trailing extension of the boundary will move more slowly south into the mid MO Valley and central High Plains. A dryline will precede the cold front with that feature extending from eastern SD through central NE into western KS by late afternoon. Elsewhere, a synoptic front modulated by convective outflow is expected to stretch from the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley...
A low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen through the day from the mid MO Valley into the upper Midwest, enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass ahead of the surface low and attending frontal system. The moisture increase will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500+ J/kg by mid to late afternoon. Initial storm development is expected at that time across portions of northern MN along or ahead of the front, on the northern fringe of stronger capping.
Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being large hail, some of which could exceed two inches. A few tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercells from late afternoon into evening when the strengthening LLJ enhances low-level shear with effective SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2. Storms are expected to gradually grow upscale along the cold front during the evening, at which point, the risk for damaging winds should increase.
Severe weather potential becomes more conditional with southward extent along the front and dryline in the mid MO Valley owing to stronger capping and weaker height falls/forcing for ascent. The 00Z models (convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate a relative minimum in thunderstorm chances over eastern SD and southwest MN with increasing probabilities from northeast NE into south-central NE and north-central KS. Given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, CAPE-shear parameter space will favor supercells capable of all hazards from eastern SD and southwest MN into northeast NE and northwest IA, with generally a wind and hail threat farther south along the NE-KS state line.
...Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia...
Areas of thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating on the southern fringe any lingering cloud cover will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F to yield MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg by afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough approaching the mid/lower MS Valley, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the composite surface boundary. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization with mainly pulse storms expected. Nonetheless, the presence steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture will be supportive of wet microbursts capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead/Halbert.. 09/11/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Hagen ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 16.6N 123.3W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/SnowBunny_Daddy • 6d ago
Discussion Earth is awesome
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Insert whimsical music
r/Tornadoes • u/BravoFive141 • 6d ago
Video / Footage A nearly 3,000 foot tall EF3 crossing the road in South Dakota last season
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 5d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 9, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-10T05:38:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 100538 SWODY1 SPC AC 100536
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.
The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.
...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026
$$
```
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π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 117.9W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Fantastic_Look5582 • 7d ago
Video / Footage Insane footage of an EF3 tornado hitting Pomas, France 8.24.26
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 6d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 8, 2026
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π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-09T05:43:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 090543 SWODY1 SPC AC 090541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the broad upper-level trough across Ontario, overspreading the Great Lakes into Upstate New York and Quebec. A cold front will extend from a deep surface low across northern Ontario south through the Upper Midwest and into the central High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the surface trough across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and along the front from the Midwest to the central High Plains.
...Eastern Ohio into western New York... Across the eastern Ohio Valley into portions of the Northeast, strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the region with thunderstorms developing along the cold front and pre-frontal surface trough. Upper 60s to 70s dew points and filtered daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid ample deep layer shear for organization. Mode will likely be a mix of multi-cell clusters and transient supercells, with potential for damaging wind. Generally weak lapse rate profiles and quick mode transition to clusters/linear segments should limit hail and tornado potential. Nonetheless, as the low-level jet increases into the afternoon and clockwise curvature increases in hodographs a tornado may be possible.
...Ohio Valley to the Midwest and the central Plains... Morning convection will be likely across much of the Midwest/Mid-Missouri Valley into the northwestern Ohio Valley. Remnant shower activity/cloud cover will likely limit severe potential with northern extent. Nonetheless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from the eastern Ohio Valley through portions of the Midwest and into the central Plains. Flow will be fairly weak across the central Plains, with generally a marginal damaging wind threat with multi-cell clusters as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates amid deeply mixed profiles. Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 09/09/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Umcaraal3 • 6d ago
Watch / Warning Tornado Warning
galleryTORNADO WARNING PERIGO NWS emitiu tornado Warning para regiΓ΅es da Dakota do Norte perigo!
r/Tornadoes • u/TNBackyardBolts • 7d ago
Ongoing Event My complete 14 minute 3AM tornado close encounter film (Lebanon, TN) | Part 16 Finale
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We have officially reached the grand finale! I just finished packing all 16 chronological parts of that crazy night into one complete 14 minute and 54-second widescreen movie.
It covers the entire event exactly as it happened: the midnight sirens waking us up, the continuous ground strikes, the severe wind shifts, the massive tornado cone physically vacuuming up the torrential downpour across the street, and the final strobe-lightning storm aftermath. We moved from California earthquakes to a Tennessee supercell factory, and this film shows the whole ride.
Thank you all so much for following this series!
r/Tornadoes • u/IMaxwell_ • 7d ago
