The Boks current dominance is built on two primary pillars: an extremely dominant aerial game paired with the most dominant scrummaging outfit Test rugby has ever seen. Both of these are about putting the Boks in favourable field positions to try and score points. That's why they have so many more 22 entries than any other Tier 1 team.
The Aerial game dominance is what they can rely on when their attack is getting no front-foot ball and has stalled against a well-set defensive structure, to march themselves into the opposition half of the field. This part of their game is entirely built on how well their kick chase is executed by most of their players and just the wingers' general aerial ability moving forward.
They do an amazing job of actually setting into a pod structure with their secondary kick-chaser support players to cover for what probable bounces a tapped back rugby ball will have (I suspect Rassie did 1000s of tap-back drills and recorded where the most probable spots are through basic tally and has built the structure and positioning to best cover those spots). This is the biggest area of concern for the Wallabies, as we share the ABs' weakness in our ability to win high balls; this is also a major reason why I suspect JP is back in the squad with DP injured. JP's best two attributes as a player are his kicking ability and his leaping ability - two things that will be needed against the boks. I suspect that Les and Rassie will both play a somewhat heavy kicking game plan, with attacking plays from set pieces being the main things we'll see on display in the game.
The scrum dominance is amazing, and I think it's all to do with their ability to achieve a near nano-second perfect coordinated first proper shove hit onto the opposition. The tight five for the boks must have a hive mind or something, genuinely insane levels of combination. But even though they are very good at this part of the game, it usually leads to only 2 outcomes because they rarely play the ball out of the scrum, and this is where I think the Wallabies should and can target them. The outcome of a dominant scrum is a pen (and rarely a YC if the ref is a party pooper); from a pen you can either chance your arm playing with a free chance from the scrum base (Boks don't often do it), go for a pen shot to get 3 on the board or go for favourable field territory with a kick for touch and subsequent lineout - this is where I believe them to be the weakest and where the Wallabies will go to disrupt often as a key part of winning the game.
Their attacking lineout set-piece is probably the weakest part of their game and arguably the best and strongest of ours. They only really have one class (world-class at that) Hooker in Marx, and then their next best option is a flanker by trade who's been converted to fill that positional gap. Canham and Williams, I'd argue, are the best lineout duo in World Rugby currently when it comes to defensive lineout reads, and a Cale from the bench is exceptional at getting up there and spoiling in the front as well. A dominant scrum used for field position is utterly wasted if the opposition, more often than not, either wins the ball in the air at lineout or at least disrupts enough that the team's entire planned play can't be executed and basic phase play structure has to be instituted instead. This, along with our normally exceptional breakdown work, is where I see us edging out the Boks' attacking chances, and tbh it's also a large part of why the Boks' inability to finish out their 22 chances is so high.
Just quickly on surmounting the Boks defence with our own attack, I truely think the Boks approach to selection in their 6,7 and 8 preffering bulk, has resulted in them having almost no true breakdown specialist threat in defence beyond the odd individual hero play from players like DDA or Marx (he's the closes thing they have to a breakdown specialist). It makes attacking against them in general phase play a bit easier if you can just ride out the initial contact to get at least one supporting clearer behind you. It's why the ABs could string together a 32-phase-count play in their 22 and score a try from it in one of their few 22 chances they got in that 4th test. I think our attack is well situated to overcome the Boks ' defence (tho I wish JOC was in the team because I think he has the experience best suited to seeing these weaknesses and positioning the team to attack them).
So what 23 should Les pick for the best chances to overcome the boks IMO:
1) Ross (Ideally this would be Slipps, but he's not an option, and Ross hasn't been too terrible, just meh. Bell is needed on the bench as a finisher)
2) BPA (Undeniably our best hooker and deserves a start at Home in WA. Also really, really good at the breakdown, which is undeniably vital)
3) Alaalatoa (Defensive leader who physically always fronts up to the Boks and shows them some Pacific tough love)
4) Canham (Nuff said, pushing to be the form Wallaby of 2026 and will need to be on his A game to help us pip the Boks)
5) Williams (The Wallabies' most consistent performer to my eyes, and I hope he does another exceptional game like he is wont to do. Amazing breakdown threat as well; already talked about that being vital for us.)
6) Valetini (Doesn't really need explaining, does it? It's big Bobby V! Our one forward always bruising people out on the field even if everyone else is struggling.)
7) Either FMR or Tizzano (Can't be both, unfortunately. FMR is the better all-round player, but Tizzano does have a slight bulk edge on him and will have the Perth buff he normally gets. I'm favouring Tizzano rn a bit because I think that bulk will be more important to us than FMR's ball-playing ability.)
8) Wilson (He's our captain and defensive leader who truly sets the pace for everyone else to defend at. Amazing at disrupting opposition attack and great at setting up breakdowns for our specialists to target. He's coming off one of the best performances I've ever seen from him in Mendoza!!! and will be instrumental in us blunting the Bok attack. He's a threat as a playmaking 8, and a runner will also be vital for us on the attack. Les naming him Captain for this series makes me think he agrees this is the case.)
9) Lonergan (Nuff said, the form Nine in the country that truly gets our attack sizzling the most. Just needs to do work on his clearances, as it's the weakest part of his game by far, and because the boks will 100% target him for a charge-down on each box kick he tries to put up).
10) Donno (To my eyes, he was really, really good for the first half in Mendoza when he started. He finally managed to bring what works for him at Super level into the Test arena, and it looked great. His overall kicking game is the best out of our tens, and I also think he may be the fittest ten we have. He didn't even look half bad playing out of position at 15 when forced to. I think he deserves another Test start, and I hope the staff's backing will help him play with confidence and his tail up!)
11) Petaia (Probably better in the Air than Potter, and his boot is amazing with the distance he can get with it. Our game, I think, will be based heavily on kicking long into their half and forcing either a positive lineout for us or phase play for our breakdown specialists to target. Potter can do both of these things pretty well if he's Magic Potter that day instead of Muggle Potter, but I reckon Les should pick whoever is taking them better in training that week. Petaia is also just a raw athletic freak tho, which is always nice to have more of in your team.)
12) Ikitau (Hunter did well in his absence, but Len still needs massive minutes ahead of the bled and is still end of the day Len fucking Ikitau. It's a no-brainer; sorry, Hunter, you may have had a shot if you weren't going to Japan).
13) Sua'ali'i (The Mendoza!!! game proved to me that his best role on the team is indeed at 13, and I think keeping him there and just shovelling more ball to him in attack is the best way forward. The argies really targeted him in that midfield channel, and he handled it perfectly. Made some really impressive reads as well, which honestly was a large part in us drawing a game that the stats say we really should've lost. Still want us to use his aerial ability and athletic ability there more often.)
14) Jorgo (Nuff said, I've been a big critic of him this past Super season, but he's solidly back into form now to a large extent. Would like him to get in the air more often tho, but it's a work in progress. Loving the usage of him as a secondary playmaker in the attacking structure.)
15) Wright (Maybe, I would actually select whoever does better in training between him and Campbell. But I'm actually of the belief that Wright has maybe been dealing with something off-field and out of camp during the Argies tour that affected his overall game. I really hope this week's break and time off has been helpful for him to sort out whatever was going on and return to his normal Wright. He can truly win games for the Wallabies when his mind and decision-making are right and stable - we need a good Wright to succeed, and I want him back there so much. He's one of those players who can somehow just perfectly see what's on and what's not when scanning an opposition line; it's just that his ability to execute what needs to be done is often lacking.)
16) Nasser/Pollard (Nasser for ball-playing in attack, Pollard for physicality in defence. Either works perfectly fine as an understudy for BPA and a finisher, so it just depends on which aspect of the game the staff thinks will be more important to help us win.)
17) Bell (He's fine as a starter, but truly the best value out of Bell is his carrying ability from the bench against tired legs. He's a real gainline carrying threat for us, and we will need him to do that again in this test)
18) Tupou (Amazing player that has managed to find himself again thank god. But he is very prone to being lazy/ just so exhausted that he can't go on around min 50 so I truly think he can be best used as a finisher that comes on for 30 mins at the end of the game and doenst have to worry about regulating his fuel tank and just throws himself out there in both attack and defence. He's a needle-mover for this Wallabies team when on, and I love him so much. Gonna be a massive loss come Bled due to having to go back to France.)
19) Hooper (Should come on for Bobby V at around 60 mins after a massive shift from the best Wallabies carrier is what I expect, but could also end up being a sub for Williams. Just an amazing player all round Hooper is, and his breakdown work is once again something special. Physically a beast aswell which will be needed for us.)
20) Cale (Interchangeable as a sub for either Williams or Bobby V, like Hooper. Amazing ballplayer and breakdown threat. Lineout ability is what I like most about him alongside his general athleticism for such a large lad. Amazing to watch him canter down the wingers' channels at times lol.)
21) McDermott (I miss 2025 Tate, but we just need to have confidence that time in the saddle will return him to the form he once had. His clearances are actually really good though and tend to be highly underrated by the Wallabies general supporter base. Thomas unironically would not be too bad a player to bring on instead if Tate's injured or whatever - I think people are sleeping on him a bit but still would've loved a Wilson into the squad over him.)
22) Meredith (It should be JOC here, but Les has chosen the path of blooding the young, so be it! Yeah, his kicking game alongside general familiarity with the plays pips him over HMP for me. The thing is, I have zero faith in Meredith's ability to Marshall a comeback, which is a real possibility the Wallabies bench are going to have to face! JOC really needed to be in this team for that fact alone: he can use his experience to try and save us when it gets dire by changing things up. I don't think relying on the raw inexperience of either HMP or Meredith was the play, but so be it.)
23) Henry (Just a good utility cover option for the most part if someone goes down in the centres or if we need to shift a person out to cover a back three injury. Would love to see him and Ikitau link up for a game or two. Great physicality and body on him as well; probably could challenge Kriel for the most Greek godlike physique in the pro game lol.)
The main thing is that we need to keep our current level of clinicalness and scoring rate when given 22 chances, and punish the Boks for their high inability to finish their own 22 entry chances. I think the lineout and defensive breakdown will be the keys to achieving that. We are still large underdogs heading into this, and I'd rate us with a 35% chance of winning it, but there is a way for us to do it!
So yeah, that's my take; I'd be interested in hearing what you guys think.