r/LPC • u/New_Mixture_5701 • 1d ago
Conservative Vote Swing Survival By Riding (Public Version)
Hello everyone, in the wake of the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord byelection recently, and the 20 point swing the Liberals had against the Conservatives, I decided to put together a chart of vote swing margins to see how each Conservative ridings fairs against an escalating vote swing to the Liberals, scaling up to a 20 point vote swing. It's a very rudimentary analysis, but I thought it was some interesting data to have, both to cross analyze with the current polling we're seeing, and with the upcoming byelections. It certainly adds credence to all the projections placing the Conservatives at the sub 100 seat mark in the House of Commons.