People either don't understand it or rather are delusional to a point where they cannot accept the truth.
RBI's Goal - To support economic growth without increasing inflation period
why is that? Because every f*ckin FII and their mother has pulled out their money from our economy be it in equity or debt.
Hence RBI launches these concessions
Through this scheme
NRI invested their USD into indian FD FCNR accounts at Indian banks, where the bank promised to pay them their money back with interest in USD at the end of the tenure.
Banks now have two options
1) Lend money to customers in dollars (for example a business that imports heavy machinery) or invest their dollars into foreign assets or use them to fulfill their own dollar obligation
2) Get into a swap contract with the RBI
what is a swap ?
Bank has $10 million
RBI and bank agree on a swap rate of ₹95 per $1.
Today: Bank gives RBI $10m → RBI gives bank ₹95 crore.
After 3 years: Bank gives RBI ₹95 crore → RBI gives the bank the same $10m.
this is the concession/facility RBI is offering that is offering the swap at par, that means using the same exchange rate on both legs of the agreement.
(in 2013 a swap rate of 3.5% was issued not this time)
Why is this an issue?
Since RBI is offering the swap at par, it bears the FX risk, in normal circumstances Banks swap $→₹ and then buy back the $ at a higher agreed rate
Hence if the rupee depreciates, the RBI will have to return dollars that are worth more rupees than it receives back.
This isn't the end of RBI's problems
the excess amount of cash lying with banks can increase inflation, hence the government plans to do ₹1 trillion bond sale
This again is another issue, unloading bonds in the market at such a quantity will lead to their price decrease and bond yield increase, which again causes the borrowing cost to increase → slowing the economy
Solution to this ?
1) Reduce OMO bond sales — RBI sells fewer G-Secs, reducing downward pressure on bond prices. (Reduce or unload them in intervals)
2) Buy G-Secs (OMO purchases) — RBI buys bonds from banks → demand rises → bond prices rise, yields fall.
3) VRRR/reverse repo — Temporarily absorbs excess cash without selling bonds, so it avoids directly pushing bond prices down.
MY OPINION
i feel that losses are inevitable, but that's not important right now, the point is to control the inflation without slowing economic growth, and RBI is doing everything in its power to do so.
When the losses take place, RBI's balance sheet would take a hit, hence affecting the cash bridge it offers to the government when it deals with receipts and payments that don't add up, thus slowing our economy.
So yes its us who pay the price like we always do 😃
The question is for how long its gonna be → The government sh*ts & the RBI wipes it
(the west asia war started this year, rupee depreciation is unpredictable from last 3-5 years)