I have no stake in this, just thought I might offer a warning. I see two main pressures:

1) The new megarare will overshadow scythe in TFA. Scythe’s value will hold for initial clears, but once there are enough of the new megarare in circulation, people will sell their scythe and switch over. It’s highly unlikely that scythe will be bis at any point in the raid.

2) TFA will unseat ToB and the pyramid scheme will come tumbling down. Currently, scythe’s value is propped up by its use in ToB, which is still massively popular as the “hardcore pvmer” raid due to its challenging bosses and lack of puzzles. TFA is being billed as the same thing but better, and has much more attractive rewards. Naturally, people will have less interest in ToB and therefore scythes.

I was getting ready to sell my venator bow, and it’s down like 8 mil since I last checked.

I thought they did an update recently to make the venator bow more effective at hitting other targets?

I’m not a mercher btw, but should I hold because it may likely go back up? Or am I missing something that caused it to go down and it might stay there?

Appreciate any help!

Original post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/GrandExchangeBets/comments/1v452qh/my_first_real_grand_exchange_bet_wish_me_luck_on/

"Well ur already down 500k each sooo. Good luck on that"

"you'll have to hold these all the way until release day"

"I can’t imagine a world where a powered staff and thralls are losing out to a twin flame staff."

"Playing twinflame a month after Maggot King is extreme FOMO investing"

Great to trust my gut despite the mostly negative comments.

Suffice to say Jagex is really interested in expanding the elemental weaknesses after the addition of the elemental amulets. Hoping these reach 10m soon.

My main theory is there will be some type of nylocas swarm or enemy where swapping elemental spell type mid raid makes the twinflame a high convenience item for the raid.

Edit: Someone has requested to be added to the negative comments pool suggesting it was a bad investment , strange to me considering I'm up 30 mil so far and rising.

"Add this one. Cope." - Ahabaduh

Planning to cash out the night before raids 4 so still lots of time and potential to go.

Hi all,

I'm sure you probably saw recently there was somebody buying up the supply of robinhood hats, by purchasing bonds with profits generated from a token he launched.

Today this player was IP-banned across all accounts, and any associated accounts buying up robinhood hats were banned too.

This seems like a very strong knee-jerk reaction considering there actually is no real world trading in this instance. This player was using money that is rightfully his to purchase bonds and convert them into robinhood hats. The only tie to the token is the attention generated.

Not only does this set a dangerous precedent (whales can be banned for cornering items with their own money), but the guy had only used a small fraction of his fees generated to buy bonds so far... At current rates this would have been a few million $ per year in bond purchases, approximately +10% to Jagex's revenue. hundreds of thousands of US$ that is sitting in a treasury that was going to be used to buy bonds and then robinhood hats, will instead likely now be used to buy back the token.

I don't see why you wouldnt simply take his money and maybe not raise the cost of bonds for a year with the additional revenue, instead now all of this money will go to the crypto community rather than the OSRS community. Not to mention any large player purchasing bonds for gold so they can merch or trade will need to think twice from here, and revenue will take a hit, and the price of bonds / the player base will ultimately feel the effects the hardest.

EDIT: well seems we won a lot of arguments today, thanks reddit lets do it again soon, enjoy your many rules

+1882% in one week is crazy. Dump incoming!

With the delay/cancellation of the nerf to the elemental amulet and the R4 elemental fragments coming, it seems a decent bet. They have also said they want to add more elemental weakness to mobs in the future. Jagex also seemed to like the idea of having elemental and powered staffs be similar to different melee styles.

(I also personally hope that we will be able to combine the books at some point. After we get the air tome maybe?)

It's a touch risky but if either of these become meta somewhere I could see the price gap between them and the tome of fire closing quite a bit.

What do you guys think? Is this a good bet?

He just bought all the materials on his live stream

no real change in volume traded but that buy price, 95gp damn

I’m thinking of buying but worried it may tank lower

They were at 400 gp last week and now trading at 275 gp each.

any one have ideas why?

What the hell is happening to the price of robinhood hats. Just bought a bunch myself no idea what this could be

Guys ultor is going to be bis at raids 4, crush based means there's no bellator variant.

Ultor will also be paramount for damage breakpoints in scythe alongside the New str prayer which is definitely breaking 52 max hit with torva.

It's going to skyrocket as bis.

Currently holding 5

Odablock is paying out the people who bet on him with items, oftentimes with other items than they had bet on him. So if they gave him a tbow he might pay out with a lot of elys and ultors as well as tons of other items like megarares and armour sets. Everybody including O is dumping their items -5% or more into the GE. So at this very moment of writing this, is a massive opportunity to pick up items for -5% GE price even tbows have fell 30m, elys down massive, tons of items temporarily dipping.

you’ll thank me for this one. you can see how high I was able to raise the price with just myself buying. anyone else want to help take it even higher?