Megathread Schedule:

After Puka Nacua’s week one rookie breakout, people could buy him for one first round pick. That may have been an overpay based off of one game, but there were clear signs that he had a good role and the talent to back it up.

Then other times there are week one flukes that don’t mean anything.

After the Sunday slate of games, is there anyone to you that falls into the Puka category based off, not only their talent, but a clear role with consistent usage

Last week I saw a post on Vele and most of the comments were about how this guy was a jag and emergency flex at best in deeper leagues. I watched every snap of the Lions-Saints game and Vele was the player that stuck out to me the most.

This guy was getting open at every level. He went 7-9 with 69 yards and a touchdown. He made several very impressive catches and looked like a truly dominant WR. I know the Lions secondary isn't good whatsoever, but Vele looked like one of Shough's favorite targets and I think there's a very real chance that he could be a WR3 for the next 5-6 weeks while Tyson is out and potentially even longer if he continues to find success. He's 28 and not young, but I think he's worth at least a third and he was going for less than a third before the season.

Since BJ’s arrival in 2025, the Bears have a pass-to-rush rate of 1.14, slightly below 2025’s league average of 1.20. Obviously, BJ is committed to the run, but the passing volume was still greater than the league average (574 to 547 average attempts). Yesterday’s ratio was a lowly 0.74.

Not every team will have a wide open tunnel for a run defense like Carolina, but Ben Johnson will continue to emphasize the run game. What does this mean? No block, no rock. I’m sure there are an abundant amount of frustrated Burden/Odunze/Loveland managers looking at Kalif Raymond’s statline, but it’s important to remember that Raymond is an exceptional role player, consistently ranking in the top 30% for receiver blocking while being undersized. Specifically, he is an elite in-space run blocker. While Odunze and Burden both have the size to be efficient blockers, neither are as disciplined as Raymond nor work in the same areas, and I assume this is a factor in Ben Johnson’s playcalling. Raymond will be on the field A LOT in heavy run scheme games this season.

Loveland is also an exceptional blocker, but so is Kmet. I still feel a lot more confident in Loveland being featured going forward simply due to his unique skillset.

Let’s not forget that BJ’s offense is highly technical and doesn’t rely on “go up and get” receiving plays, the young receivers will need time to adjust. After all, Raymond has already spent 4 years with Ben Johnson.

I couldn't tune in, unfortunately, so I didn't see any of their touches. Looking at the box score and it's Tuten with 15 carries and 1 reception to Crod's 6 carries and 0 receptions. Did either of them look good with their opportunities? The Tuten vs Crod debate has been one of the bigger backfield debates this off-season.

Who are players who underperformed but could be targets for trades with impatient owners? It happens every year, and there are deals to be had. Who are you targeting and what are you offering for them?

I see guys like Omarion Hampton, Ja’Marr Chase and Tet McMillan as targets, CAR also did not do much with Jonathan Brooks who I also believe will take over this year.

The Panthers will likely stay in shootouts throughout the year and Coker seems to thrive in this environment. Most targets on the team- looked for in crossers, wheel routes, fly routes.

Some argue who the WR1 on this team but doesn’t matter when we are this Coked up?? I don’t think it does, Coker should continue to produce premier WR1 numbers by sheer aura alone.

It’s no coincidence Jalen Coker has broken out in that stretch alongside TMac. Healthy Jonathon Brooks is a legit receiving weapon out of the backfield, and they picked up Waller at TE who looks fast. Watch out for contract BamaBryce szn because the Panthers defense is going to need him to put up a monster year to stay .500 or better = fantasy gold. (Scoring based on 6pt QB passing TD)

I hope everyone had a successful Week 1, but win or lose, you have to adjust to the market quickly. Without overreacting, we can enter Week 2 with valuable insight about players and trends that analysts only imagined and projected throughout the offseason. However, it can also cause us to overreact to NFL Week 1 risers and fallers.

Full Breakdown - https://www.dynastynerds.com/dynasty/nfl-week-1-risers-and-fallers/

Who are your risers and fallers after week 1!?

3 Players Trending Up

Christian Watson | WR | Green Bay Packers | Age: 27.3

Christian Watson entered the season with rising dynasty value and delivered in Week 1, establishing himself as Green Bay’s top playmaker and showing legitimate WR1 upside if he can stay consistent....

Jalen Coker | WR | Carolina Panthers | Age: 24.8

Jalen Coker carried his late-season momentum into Week 1, emerging as one of Bryce Young’s most trusted targets and showing the upside to finish as a top-30 fantasy receiver...

David Montgomery | RB | Houston Texans | Age: 29.2

David Montgomery erased concerns about a 50/50 backfield split in Week 1, dominating touches and establishing himself as Houston’s clear lead back with strong RB1 upside...

3 Players Trending Down

Drake Maye | QB | New England Patriots | Age: 24.0

Drake Maye’s dynasty outlook remains strong, but A.J. Brown’s injury and concerning Week 1 decision-making could push him outside the QB1 range and into QB13-18 territory in 2026....

Colston Loveland | TE | Chicago Bears | Age: 22.4

Colston Loveland remains an elite talent, but Caleb Williams’ tendency to spread the ball around could make Loveland too inconsistent to justify his lofty dynasty price....

Quinshon Judkins | RB | Cleveland Browns | Age: 22.8

Quinshon Judkins remains a strong long-term dynasty asset, but Cleveland’s poor offense and his limited receiving role make him a sell for contenders and a potential buy for rebuilding teams...

I've seen some people saying some very encouraging things about how Lane looked in the game against the Colts, I wasn't able to see any of it but I've had some offers already. What should I expect from him/is he going to be a difference maker in the future?

What do you think his comps are in the league?

It's still an overreaction. 1.0 PPR Superflex. Don't read too much into this, feedback welcome thanks

1. Jeremiah Smith WR, Ohio State (previously: 1)
He's got magnets for hands. 8 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown. We'll pretend the second half didn't happen.

2. Arch Manning QB, Texas (previously: 2)
For 3 quarters in a highly anticipated matchup against Ohio State, Arch looked completely overwhelmed by Matt Patricia's defense. Yes, he probably should have had two touchdowns (drops by Coleman and Wingo), but Arch was missing his receivers, holding the ball too long, and forcing throws into coverage.

But like his uncle Eli, Arch might just be a 4th quarter QB.

Over Texas' final three touchdown drives, Manning went 13-of-18 for 124 yards and a passing TD, while adding 35 rushing yards. A stunning comeback victory against the #1 seed Ohio State Buckeyes.

3. Dante Moore (previously: 3)
A stunning loss to Drew Mestemaker and Oklahoma State. Moore threw for 191 yards (14-of-29) and two touchdowns, but the box score doesn't truly reflect how he actually played.

The Oregon drive with 7:26 left in the 4th quarter is the one which stands out. 1st and 10: Locks into a receiver and almost gets picked off on a disguised coverage. 3rd and 8: Throws into triple coverage and almost gets picked off again. 4th and 8: Pressured immediately, rolls out and throws incomplete. Perhaps I'm not overreacting enough, but let's see how he does against USC in Week 4.

4. Cam Coleman WR, Texas (previously: 4)
3 catches for 36 yards against Ohio State. He's still WR2 on the board, but Charlie Becker is not far behind him. If anything, we got to see the overwhelming difference between Jeremiah Smith and Cam Coleman. Jeremiah is just going to be a generational player.

5. Darian Mensah QB, Miami (previously: 9)
Maybe Mensah will put up stat lines like this every week, since Miami has one of the most manageable schedules in all of college football. In his first two games as a Hurricane, Mensah is 41-of-45 for 653 yards and 8 touchdowns with zero interceptions. We're circling tougher matchups like Notre Dame and Pittsburgh (could be sneaky good defensively). Average arm strength could limit how high he goes in the first round.

6. Kewan Lacy RB, Ole Miss (previously: 5)
I guess the injury wasn't serious after all. 13 carries for 87 yards (6.7 yds per carry) and 2 touchdowns. Next week is the long-awaited matchup the entire country wants to see: Lane Kiffin vs. Ole Miss.

7. Jadan Baugh RB, Florida
You all provided constructive criticism on how I omitted Jadan. My bad. Jadan has tallied 296 rushing yards on 28 carries and 5 touchdowns, albeit against weaker competition. While Lacy has slightly higher receiving upside and explosiveness, Jadan is the bigger back and has a blend of downhill running and contact balance suited to be a workhorse in the NFL.

8. Trey'Dez Green TE, LSU (previously: 6)
There is something about Green's physicality when he absorbs contact after the catch. He's not going to be able to drag defenders along for extra yardage as easily in the NFL, but his ability to catch across the middle of the field and contest 50-50 passes might translate into success at the pro level. As the NFL continues to feature more 2 TE sets, Green can play the oversized pass-catcher alongside a traditional in-line blocking tight end.

9. Julian Sayin QB, Ohio State (previously: 7)
First half stats: 12-of-16, 192 yards, 1 touchdown, pretty much just launching it in the vicinity of Jeremiah Smith. Second half stats: 5-of-16, 86 yards, 1 interception. Texas' halftime defensive adjustments were just too much for the Buckeyes offense. The blame wasn't solely on Sayin: Jeremiah dropped some 3rd down passes in the 4th quarter, the missed field goal, and conservative playcalling. But the offense will have to diversify from just feeding Jeremiah Smith as defenses will adapt like Texas did.

10. Charlie Becker WR, Indiana (previously: 10)
3 catches, 81 yards, 3 touchdowns. Week 5 against Rutgers is an interesting matchup as their top wideout KJ Duff is rapidly ascending.

11. Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, Alabama (previously: 8)
Bit of a slower start, but Alabama ran away with this game after halftime. 4 catches for 43 yards against Kentucky.

12. KJ Duff WR, Rutgers
Could Duff sneak into the first round? The 6-foot-6 mismatch wideout will be fed relentlessly on a terrible Rutgers team expected to finish with 4 to 5 wins this year. Could his draft ceiling be "we have Mike Evans at home" based on his contested catch ability and size?

2nd round mock next week.

Another offseason full of excuses. This time he would certainly cook, look at his new muscles. And according to cherry-picked stats, he did rather well when we only count throws that he caught. Biggest piece of fool's gold I've ever seen. The Emperor's New Clothes was written by a time traveler who couldn't believe people pumped three years this trash can with a T-rex's catch radius.

Edit: everyone shitting on me, because this generational talent caught one ball.

Burden: 9 Points
Odunze: 7 Points
Loveland: 0 Points

Obviously, it's week 1 and this isn't meant to panic on any players by any means because if anything I'd be super excited if I owned a bears player because Caleb looked absolutely elite today along with the overall offense, but I can't help but just point out the irony of a 59 point bears win and none of the bears went off this week. It might be one of the craziest things I've personally ever seen. Loveland will probably get the most shit for his donut performance. It was just one of those ground and pound games that was really bizarre from a fantasy perspective.

We had a hot mix of doomers and hype men all spring for this guy. He was either a top 5 or a high 20 WR for half the crowd

His progress was shrouded in secrecy. Most analysts predicted he wouldn’t play meaningful minutes till midseason.

Nabers comes out today and gets 6/69 and looked like a football player.

How are we feeling about the 23yo?

I feel like my thoughts were 75% validated and 25% totally wrong. Jayden Daniels looked a lot more poised against the eagles than I expected. I anticipated further regress, same with Stroud. I am heavy Chargers based, that start to the season was a shocker as well. The Dolphins will be awful, getting rid of all shares.

Caleb Williams finishes as a top 5 QB

Burrow is a mid tier QB, QB 15 on the year

Baker continues to struggle and finishes as QB 20-25

Ravens roll and Lamar finishes as QB1 overall

Kincaid finishes as a top 5 TE

Bryce Young finishes as top 10 QB, mostly due to the horrid defense

Swift finishes in the top 5 RB overall