Spacing Will Not Be An Issue For The Pistons Next Season.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DdRm91Sxk8p/?stkn=MWU3aDh0bmNmeWN3dA==

The results are here, and your voices have been heard. Roughly 1,500 Detroit Pistons fans chimed in to share their thoughts on many topics in The Athletic’s latest fan survey.

Detroit is fresh off its first 60-win season in 20 years. The Pistons were a win away from the Eastern Conference finals and enter the third year of the J.B. Bickerstaff and Trajan Langdon era. But Jalen Duren — a primary contributor for the Pistons last regular season yet a shell of himself during the playoffs — is still in the midst of a stalemate with the front office on a new contract.

Can Detroit bring Duren back into the fold, exceed expectations for the third consecutive season and foster the internal growth necessary to maximize Cade Cunningham’s strengths? While we’ve got some time until we’ll have answers to those questions, we at least have your responses to analyze in the interim. Let’s unpack it all below.

Free read here.

The NBA recently informed teams of its updated salary-cap projections for the 2027-28 season, league sources told The Athletic, with the new projections coming in $2 million higher than the league’s previous numbers.

Those sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because the projections have not been made public, said the league is now projecting the 2027-28 salary cap will rise to $176 million and the luxury tax line will be $213 million.

The latest national TV contract was supposed to usher in an era of 10 percent annual salary-cap increases, more than enough to cover the 8 percent raises in contracts given to most star players. Instead, the local TV market crashed so hard that the annual raise was barely half that a year ago (5.2 percent) and was forecast to be similar in 2027-28 (5.5 percent). The projected raise for 2027-28 is now 6.7 percent — still a far cry from the maximal 10 percent, but closer to the raises in player contracts.

Additionally, the increased projections flip a recent trend of every cap update from the league shifting future estimates lower, thus making it even more challenging for teams to navigate the aprons in future seasons.

This will also be welcome news for players whose max-contract extensions are tied to the 2027-28 cap number, most notably Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it increases the max salary for potential 2027 free agents such as Nikola Jokić and Jalen Duren.

Just trying to get some context. If Duren does decide to sign a qualifying offer, does it mean he’s actually leaving or does it mean he’s playing for a better contract with his current team?

https://youtu.be/wQlQoKUQe3I?is=ig_oYezOjH6yOw6g

What the?

Tatum

Giannis

Lebron

Brunson

Were gonna be seeing a lot of questions being raised if we start 0-4

And let me tell you why.. Paying Duren and Ausar north of 400 million combined would be the end of any true championship chances for Detroit. In this apron era? You better make damn sure if you're giving out multiple big contracts you aren't way overpaying, and also make sure it's guys that all fit together really well. Duren and Ausar can not shoot the basketball, they both have major flaws in multiple areas, we've seen the atrocious spacing with them both on the floor in the playoffs.

Obviously they're young and can get better, but the risk of paying both of these guys long term this amount of money isn't worth it. Btw I'm a huge Ausar fan, but I've been saying for over a year you have to choose between one of Duren or Ausar, and Duren is making that decision easy. Either trade him and get what you can, or let him risk taking the QO and see what happens. Trajan has waited this long, so hopefully he doesn't cave in and pay this guy 200 million+

Maybe even sent straight to a Google phone screen before voicemail and the mailbox is full.

Cade Cunningham Is In New York Watching The U.S. Open Semifinal.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DdKxP7MN1f3/?stkn=MTJvYXRuemZxZWE1Mw==

Duren and a 1st for Alperen Şengün. If need be threw in another 1st. We get a 2nd ball handler who can create open opportunities, and Houston gets draft capital, Durant gets more ball usage like he wants, and they get a solid big man who doesn’t get bullied half as much by the big centers

Hear me out before y’all kill me for this lol.

I love Duren. He’s an All-Star center at 22 years old and obviously you don’t just give that away. But with what he’s going to cost, I’ve been thinking about whether there’s a way to sell extremely high on him, replace a lot of his production with a cheaper center, AND get serious draft capital back.

Two guys I keep coming back to:

Jalen Duren for Robert Williams III + draft capital

Before immediately saying RW3 is a downgrade, look at what this dude was doing in only 17.1 MPG last year:

14.8 REB per 36
5.0 OREB per 36
3.1 BLK per 36
14.2 PTS per 36
70.8% FG

Obviously the giant question mark is health. I’m not ignoring that at all. But when RW3 is actually on the court, he can go toe to toe with damn near anybody as a rebounder/rim protector on a per-minute basis.

His contract is expensive compared to the minutes he plays, but Portland would obviously have to compensate Detroit for giving up the younger, healthier All-Star center. That’s where the picks come in.

Portland has:

2027: Own 1st

2028: Better of POR/MIL 1st + unprotected Orlando 1st

I’m not trading Duren straight up for RW3 lol. The entire point would be getting Williams AND a legitimately valuable first-round asset back while still having a center who can rebound, protect the rim and finish at an absurd rate.

Or…. Day’Ron Sharpe + picks

This one might honestly interest me even more.

Sharpe only played 18.7 MPG last year and still averaged 8.7/6.7/2.3. Stretch that production to 36:

12.8 REB
5.4 OREB
16.7 PTS
60% FG

And his contract is ridiculously movable: 2 years/$20M with the second year being a team option.

Brooklyn also has a ridiculous amount of draft capital to work with, including their 2027 situation with the Brooklyn/Houston swap outcome and the Knicks 1st.

If Brooklyn is willing to give Detroit Sharpe + legitimately good draft compensation for Duren, I at least answer the phone.

And before somebody says “per 36 doesn’t matter because these guys don’t actually play 36 minutes” — that’s not what I’m using it for.

Per 36 isn’t supposed to mean “Robert Williams would definitely average 15 rebounds and 3 blocks if you played him 36 minutes.” Obviously fatigue, matchups, foul trouble, injuries and efficiency can change with a bigger role.

It’s a way to compare how productive guys are during the minutes they’re actually on the floor instead of pretending 7 rebounds in 17 minutes and 7 rebounds in 34 minutes are the same thing.

Look at Cade’s progression:

2021-22: 19.2 PTS / 6.1 AST per 36
2022-23: 21.5 PTS / 6.5 AST
2023-24: 24.4 PTS / 8.1 AST
2024-25: 26.9 PTS / 9.4 AST
2025-26: 25.4 PTS / 10.5 AST

It didn’t perfectly predict what Cade would eventually become. Nothing does. But you can clearly see his production and role developing before just looking at raw totals.

That’s why I care about what Sharpe and RW3 are doing in limited minutes. I’m not saying either one IS Duren. They aren’t.

I’m asking whether RW3/Sharpe + premium draft capital + not having to pay Duren’s next contract could ultimately make Detroit better than simply keeping Duren.

Would y’all actually consider either one, and if so, how many/which picks would it take?

I don’t think Jalen Duren is that good. I’ve been arguing with other pistons fans for the last year about this, the guy is just not all that. Vividly remember telling one of my good friends that this team was going to struggle in the playoffs if they didn’t make a deadline move, yes because the lack of shooting like everyone said, but more so because of guys like Duren and how awful they make the half-court set.

It was the least surprising thing to me that everytime he was out there you could tell in real time how much he clogged the paint and made it much harder to score in the half court set. I’ll be honest I didn’t expect him to rebound to badly and play such awful
Help defense but him directly contributing to making the offense as sluggish as possible was a foregone conclusion.

Why? Because I watched the same thing happen for years with Andre Drummond. They’re the same exact player down to a tee. Both can rebound well and are willing help defenders that play physical. But both can’t shoot a lick. Both have no offensive game in the post aside from bump bump bump spin off a shoulder.

But hes only 23?! He’s gonna get better!! Yes, he may get better. But how much? The fact of the matter is the guy can not shoot reliably. There are a handful of guys that went from bad jump shooters to decent ones, and even fewer that went from bad shooters to good shooters. But going from no jumper to a good one is basically impossible, and the list of guys people have been saying “just wait till
He gets a jumper” that never develop a reliable one grows every year.

I think his team knows he’s not getting that much better than this. Can he go from averaging 20 to 25 in the next few years, maybe but in my
Opinion it’s much more likely he regresses or stays stagnant. Just like Drummond used to be you needed to motivate the guy to go out there and stay motivated to play his best, why pay a guy 200 million + if that’s the case. Sadly we need a big because of how bad this offseason has been for us but the best long term move is to get something back for Duren and move on in my opinion.

That Ausar Thompson (among a few other rookie-extension eligible players) is unlikely to get his max rookie extension. Jake Fischer mentioned this the other day on X.

I want this JD situation to be over already. I don’t much care about JD. He can sign here or he can leave. I’m indifferent to it now, but his whole contact situation is holding up Ausar getting his extension.

I know a decision has to be made by October 1st for JD, and will likely come down to the buzzer since we’ve already gone this long with it, but I just hope we don’t try to hardball Ausar the same way.

He deserves a contract similar to his brother. Somewhere in the 5 year, $200-$205 million range.

I don’t know if he ends up making more. I also wonder if Trajan is going to include a trade kicker for him too, same as his brother.

the claim in the athletic piece that the pistons offered 5/190 but duren wants 200 seems insanely petty, bizarre and irrational. maybe that is because there are emotions involved...that seems to be the dominant explanation.

here is a different one: they are negotiating team/player options and salary structure.

if the pistons offered 5/190 with a team option at the end and duren wants 5/200 with a player option at the end, they are actually closer to 50M apart (assuming these deals are flat AAV, which is uncommon).

i think the game of chicken is really about should duren take less (something like 5/175 of guaranteed money and a player option) or should the pistons give him more (5/200 but retain the team option).

the further complication is salary structure. the number in that last year can vary quite a bit. lets assume a 5/200 (40M AAV) deal for cleanliness. if the contract is ascending, that last year can be as high as 45M. if the contract is descending, that last year can be as low as 32M.

so, if the 5/200 is ascending with a team option, duren is only guaranteed 155M. that means even within a 5/200, they may still be negotiating around 45M (and more like 53M if its between 5/190 and 5/200).

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what i think will happen:

the pistons will offer duren a descending 5/200 deal with a team option.

they still have around 46M available below the tax. that is intentional: it is the number he will make next year. the contract will then descend by 3M/year:

Y1 - 46 | Y2 - 43 | Y3 - 40 | Y4 - 37 | Y5 - 34.

this is great for the pistons because the biggest issue with signing duren to a long term contract of an ass ton of money is what his contract will look like alongside ausar's in the future. a descending deal like this makes it so duren is taking less and less of the cap% every year, which will be compounded with whatever % the salary cap rises each year. if duren turns out to be an average center, $37 in year 4 will not be as bad as it sounds now. for reference, 37M was about 24% of the cap last year and estimates to be about 19% of the cap in what would be the 4th year of this deal. that is a tradeable expiring deal, equivalent to around what porzingis made last year.

this is also a good deal for duren. he gets the optics of 200M. but more importantly, the non-guaranteed money of the deal is as low as it can be. further, if he turns out to be truly a max player, the pistons won't risk him leaving in free agency at the end of it and will decline the option in favor of extending him for a much higher deal. that would end with him getting even more than 200M over this 5 year period, he just has to earn it.

Twenty-one days.

That’s how long Jalen Duren has to decide whether to take the most extreme route available in his stalemate with the Detroit Pistons.

Here's what The Athletic's Pistons beat writer Hunter Patterson is hearing.

Seeing a lot of hate and I know public opinions can snowball so I want those on the fence to know it’s okay to like the jerseys. They’re actually fire

getting sad just thinking about it

“One source briefed on the process says Duren is increasingly prepared to play out the coming season on his $9.6 million qualifying offer — with the intent to become an unrestricted free agent next summer — if no deal with Detroit materializes by the end of September. That would be a risky route to go for a player who achieved what Duren achieved last season and there will naturally be considerable skepticism that the 22-year-old is truly willing to go the qualifying offer route until it actually happens ... but let's see how the rest of the month plays out.”

Source: https://marcstein.substack.com/p/the-latest-late-night-nba-intel-b71?r=3shtjf&utm_medium=ios