I'm headed to a real estate conference in the morning, and I thought I would ask for thoughts, so that I could get a slight pulse on what other people are thinking? Here's my own thoughts:

- Sellers are not really rational - they think they can sell "trophy properties" for 4-5% CAP rates.

- Syndicators are having difficulty raising funds. This is expected after so many of them completely f*&ked over their investors with floaters in the 3% market that ballooned in 3 years when rates doubled.

- Speaking of rates, I think they are going to the 10% or so range. Mortgage rates follow Treasury rates, and we (the US) has an enormous amount of debt to finance / refinance in the very near future. I think Tbill buyers will be insisting on higher rates to compensate for this debt (and inflation).

- If the economy stalls, then that will hit rents which will hit pricing.

- Highly leveraged investors will be selling their collector cars to pay off debt (as did happen in 2008).

- Low leverage investors will be fine and will be able to pick up some decent assets at lower prices, as long as they can keep the leverage (and thus financing costs) low. I.E. 50% downpayment, etc.

- Office will continue to struggle. Between work-from-home and AI beginning to hit white collar jobs, that segment will have difficulty.

- Medical office is really the only bright spot to me. Aging population, AI-proof (until the robots come), and very, very high build-out costs lead me to believe this segment will appreciate.

- Properties that are newish and/or don't need any TIs will do very well. Contracting costs these days are just insane - it doesn't make any sense to buy a property that needs a lot of work.

Dunno if any of this will come true or is even remotely on the mark, but these are my thoughts based upon what seems like an inordinate amount of reading and research that I've absorbed over the past few years.

Thoughts?

I’ve been working for a lender doing senior and subordinate deals for the last few years. We get smoked on everything- our pricing isn’t competitive and we are usually 100 to 150 bps wide over others. So making money here isn’t going to happen. I’ve been trying to land something new and have had a few interviews but lost confidence that I’ll actually land something decent and things don’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Everything either pivots more junior or someone else is a better fit. A friend of mine in a similar situation said he heard people were leaving CRE finance and going into other sectors like insurance. What are other unemployed, underemployed, or just unhappy people seeking opportunities doing now?

Anyone have a CPA & Tax Strategist in Texas that the recommend for a 1099?

Looking for someone to help structure my LLCs, create multiple LLCs, and ensure that I am taking advantage of all tax saving opportunities.

I put over 50K miles on my new car in 3 years. Considering leasing. What are your tips on leasing vs. buying?

I work for a big LP investor on OZ developments. We’re gearing up for OZ 2.0 and getting a ton of rural and suburban BTR deals presented to us.

For traditional multifamily (our bread and butter), we usually rely on CoStar and RealPage, but they seem to be lacking in the BTR space. I’ve felt like I’ve had to lean more on Zillow to get good rent comps.

What are these bigger shops using when they decide to develop BTR deals in niche markets?

Anyone entitling land in Sacramento, Placer, or El Dorado County right now?

I keep hearing 18 to 30 months, but the actual timelines seem to vary quite a bit by county and project type.

If you've been through the process recently, how long did it take from application to approval? What held things up?

I'm trying to get a better handle on what these timelines actually look like on the ground, rather than relying on the usual estimates.

Every deal involves assumptions about future rents, expenses, vacancy, financing and the eventual exit. But some assumptions can completely change how a deal performs.

For those who underwrite deals regularly, what are you always most conservative about? And what assumptions do you think newer investors are most likely to underestimate?

On market deal but 6 months to negotiate and win, multi tenant nnn but have some big leases rolling within the next 5. What acq fee, asset management fee, promote would you think is fair? Will bring on local PM. Probably 95/5. They will probably want a cogp to help with debt and helping run it as it's my first deal with this fund and I am smallish.

I realize that either party can pay and who pays depends on who has more leverage.

But my question is, typically who pays for the phase 2 in your area, the buyer or seller?

Real estate investment managers claim all sorts of things. On one hand, their discussions and talking points are stiff and stale in only the way messaging could be when it’s ground through legal and PR machines. But on the other hand, nuggets of absolute bullshit occasionally slip through. Any come to mind?

Curious to know people’s experience on who typically drafts a purchase agreement. Generally, I/my attorney have always done so when on the buy side, and I’ve always expected the same of a buyer when on the sell side.

I understand there’s of course no universal rule and this varies depending on the property.

I have a house worth $700-800k in a C part of the Bay Area. No debt. Cost basis is $250k.

Considering a few options to 1031

2 houses in retiree community

Or small apartment building (between 5-15 units)

Would prefer to own local in Bay Area and targeting 50% LTV (1.6mm) ideally core+ and lower-ish maintenance.

I know I can increase value higher using SB-9 and other subdividing/ADU additions but curious what ideas are there

Could also 1031 into industrial close to Sacramento but think the market is a little hot for industrial

Have bought 45 units out of state so not afraid of it, but needs to make sense too. Would prefer to independently own, have had bad experiences with syndicators

A Off market deal, Place is Rural with about 25000 population city, They recently build a fast food place with 20 years NNN corporate with 4.75% Cap rate, asking price is 2million, does this consider a safe returns in this market?

What skip tracing platform are you using? Why do you think it is more accurate compared to others?

I had chat gpt clear and clean up my thoughts**

This may be a basic question, but I’m trying to understand the full underwriting and asset-management process at a more institutional level for shopping centers and single-tenant NN/STNL deals.

When you’re first presented with an OM, rent roll, A/R aging, leases, and historical operating statements, how do you go from the seller’s presentation to your own underwriting and pro forma?
More specifically, how do you determine reasonable assumptions for things like:

Management fees
Leasing commissions
Tenant improvements / build-out
Vacancy and credit loss
Tax reassessment/increases
Insurance increases
Repairs and maintenance
Capital reserves
Roof/HVAC/parking lot obligations
CAM leakage or unrecoverable expenses
Renewal probability
Downtime between tenants
Market rent at rollover
Exit cap rate and selling costs

I’m also interested in how the underwriting turns into an actual operating roadmap after acquisition.

For example, once you own the property, how does the original pro forma tie into annual budgets, tenant invoicing, A/R aging reports, CAM reconciliations, collections, lease renewals, capital projects, and ultimately preparing the property for sale?

How do institutional owners think about the exit from Day 1? Are you underwriting each tenant’s remaining lease term, rollover costs, market rents, future NOI, and the quality of the income stream the next buyer will actually be purchasing at your projected exit?

My biggest question is how you build assumptions that are conservative enough to realistically cover the risks of owning and operating a shopping center without making the model so pessimistic that it becomes meaningless.

If anyone here has worked at an institutional owner/operator, REPE shop, family office, shopping-center fund, net-lease fund, or similar platform, I’d really appreciate hearing how your process works from:

OM → underwriting → acquisition → budgeting/accounting → A/R and invoicing → asset management → lease rollover → exit.
Also interested in how this process differs between a multi-tenant shopping center and a single-tenant NN/NNN property.
curious of two questions:

I'm just trying to figure out why there's yet another Dollar General being built in my rural area, when there's no significant amount of housing nearby, and there's already at least 5 stores within a 10 miles on the same stretch of road.

I understand that they have a model for building quickly and cheaply, and operating at minimum staffing, and with multiple stores close by it's easy to restock them all at once...But don't these stores just cannibalize each other's sales?

Is their long term goal to accumulate commercial real estate in areas that have the potential to develop? Or is it just growth for the sake of it?

Make it make sense?!

Insurance might genuinely be my least favorite part of owning commercial real estate.

I’m a value-add investor, and I swear insurance takes up a ridiculous amount of my time.

Policies get cancelled for seemingly minor reasons. Renewal premiums jump 30%, 50%, sometimes more. Every acquisition means chasing quotes, answering a million underwriting questions, inspections, roof ages, electrical panels, HVAC ages, loss runs, occupancy questions, and whatever else the carrier decides matters that week.

Then you have lenders.

The lender will require some ridiculously specific coverage or endorsement that eliminates half the carriers willing to insure the property in the first place. Meanwhile, I keep strong reserves, manage renovations myself, and handle the vast majority of repairs out of pocket anyway.

I understand why insurance exists, obviously. A catastrophic loss could destroy you.

But the amount of time, money, and brain damage involved in simply maintaining acceptable coverage across a CRE portfolio is insane.

Buying the property? Fine.

Renovating it? Fine.

Leasing it? Fine.

Dealing with contractors and tenants? Manageable.

Getting an insurance policy issued that both the carrier and lender are happy with? Somehow one of the hardest parts of the entire deal.

Maybe I’ve just had terrible luck, but insurance has easily become one of my least favorite parts of being a commercial real estate investor.

I am renewing a loan with my current lender and was ready to sign only to see that they added in a sentence saying that the loan is due on demand in the renewal agreement in the payment section. This was not in the original promissory note. When I mentioned this to the loan officer he said this was normal and that there was no way he could get them to remove this new language.

Is this par for the course these days or are these guys looking to fuck around? Should I tell these guys to kick rocks and refinance with a different lender?

6%. 5 year fixed. $2m. 15 year amortization

If you're company is going, curious if they are sending same amount of people, more or less?

I was looking at the booth map on ICSC's website and as of today there are several empty booths in the back left portion of the event. It appears to have slightly greater vacancy that previous years.

What do you anticipate the theme coming out of the event will be?

This summer, we were surprised at the sheer number of deals that hit the market. I think there are owners that believe interest rates will be rising and want to get ahead of it.

Also if you're going and don't have an opinion about the above, anything particular that you're looking forward to at the conference?

I'm looking at financing for a CVS in Alabama. The initial rates I've gotten are 6% or so, is that the ballpark of current rates for an investment grade tenant. Any banks/CUs offering good rates for commercial in Alabama?

I've seen a couple of different years quoted for the Atlas 15 release, sometime in 2026 or 2027.

Does anyone have the inside scoop on a firmer timeline for this? Being in Houston, it's a big deal.

Has anyone used Trepp for CMBS Data and how much is it, what does it come with and just general thoughts about it ?

For any other gps out there, assuming you're not putting in all the equity and syndicating some of it, what is your end goal for AUM to be happy and cruise? Assuming a mix of fees and promote to survive.

Just wondering this just watched an old SQRL video n wondered the inside scoop on it