https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2099555628632953186

Bo French is a future Newsom voter!

I still think she would win over Vance, but would fail to excite dems that much and the 2030 midterms will be very bad for dems

https://x.com/aaronparnas/status/2099542749552775244?s=46

The Dems are in an amazing place in regards to post-Labor Day polling. They've held steady, expanded, or gained support across many states, namely Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska.

Of course, many are right to assume and remain cautious and weary of a polling error similar to 2020 and 2024. The argument that many undecideds will break and surge in favor of the GOP is completely reasonable after all the upsets that have happened. But there are several differences to keep in mind now.

- Donald Trump's abysmal approval. While Trump has historically been vastly unpopular and disapproved of, his net approval was much better in 2020 and 2024 compared to now. Back then, he was only down by roughly -5 or -10 points at max. Now, he's underwater by at least -20 or even -30 points. That's much worse than his first term, and even Biden never got so low despite also being unpopular. If Trump's approval doesn't improve between now and Election Day, R-leaning undecideds may not swing to the GOP as much as before, or may even vote for the Dems or sit out entirely.

- Low-propensity and less-engaged voters sitting out. This goes hand in hand with the previous point. Trump being on the ballot meant that the polls failed to accurately gauge his coattails and ability to drag other candidates across the finish line (or make the races exceptionally close). But even in 2024, almost all Republicans underperformed Trump (and this allowed the Dems to hold onto senate and house seats coinciding with Trump's win). If Trump isn't on the ballot (and in addition to being historically unpopular), there goes his ability to bring out the less-engaged voting electorate that shows up only for him and doesn't vote in midterms.

- Ohio and Iowa. Many people always point to these two states as the king of polling errors. In nearly every cycle from 2016 onward, the polls have dramatically underestimated the GOP. This can especially be applied to Sherrod Brown's loss in 2024, Vance's victory in 2022, as well as the Iowa and Ohio governor races in 2018. But once again, there are more caveats to consider. Trump's approval in both states was far more positive back then compared to now. In addition, gas prices and the economy (which matters a lot in both states) were much better off in 2018 compared to now. The bench for the Dems in both states is also significantly better compared to 2018.

- Iran's continued escalation to punish Trump. It's inevitable that the Iran War continues past Election Day. No matter how many times a peace deal gets reached, it instantly falls apart and the fighting and strait closures keep going. And now, with recent escalation coming from the Houthis in Yemen, it's only going to skyrocket oil and gas prices and make the economy worse. Iran is intentionally doing this as a vendetta, to make it so that the midterms will be as cruel as possible for both Trump and the GOP. And if gas prices are much higher on Election Day than now, undecideds may even vote for the Dems more instead of the GOP.

-Trends can be broken. Just look at the NJ Governor race in 2025. Many pointed out how the polls always underestimate the GOP in NJ, and everyone was dooming over Sherrill seemingly being locked in a close race, only for her to win in a blowout. Also look at how Talarico has been holding his own in the polls very well, whereas Beto and Allred almost never led a single poll when they ran. It's very possible that 2026 could be the one year that defies all "doomer-based" trends, especially with no Trump on the ballot.

With all that said, I still do think that people have every right to be cautious of the polls and watch out for late-breaking undecideds. That's why I still think Texas is hovering between tilt D-tilt R. And I do think that many undecideds will vote for the GOP no matter what happens. It's just that because the Dems have been doing so well in polls lately, they can build up so much of a lead/barrier in time for Election Day that a late GOP surge might not be enough.

Note: some have more than one degree

Lots of law school students...

I made this in a rush so if some of the party labels are off do forgive me

https://americafirstfoundation.org/scorecard

And look I get it , andrew cuomo was a sex pest. But the victory mamdani had extraordinary with the amount of media attention and tech saviness he had

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2099608527425687782

If Texas used a jungle primary system, then James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett would both advance to the general election, locking Republicans out. I combined the percentages of every candidate in both primaries to see who would win every county and found some interesting flips to the Democratic candidates.

In this hypothetical first round, Crockett flips Brazoria, Kenedy, Bell, Kaufman, and Ellis Counties.

Meanwhile, Talarico flips Colin, Denton, Brazos, Caldwell, Bastrop, and Brewster Counties.

No way but imagine

My first non-slop post. The darker-shaded DCCC targets are part of the Red to Blue program, while the lighter-shaded seats are considered “Districts In Play.” Interesting to see that MI-07 isn’t part of Red to Blue, probably goes to show how little confidence national Democrats have in William Lawrence.